Middle Times: The game of power for Cai Yingwen Taiwan campaign

Zhongshi Society

The President of the Democratic Progressive Party was in an impasse again. Chen Ju, the secretary -general of the Presidential Palace, even publicly bombarded the Party Central Committee. Cai Laizhi was upgraded again.Tsai Ing -wen was trying to re -election. He not only tried his best to obstruct the primary school schedule, and put on small shoes for Lai Qingde. He also bombarded the competitors of the Kuomintang to run presidents. At first glance, it seemed to be strong.However, from the recent cross -analysis of many public opinion surveys, President Tsai's efforts not only did not help much for the re -election she expected, but caused the DPP to be farther and farther from the mainstream public opinion.

President Tsai and the people around her may refute that the support of the President and the DPP is rising, at least it has been closer, and even surpassing the former Executive Dean Lai Qingde.Unfortunately, this statement seems to be not.why?Of course, the Founder Party's favorability has rebounded slightly, and the Kuomintang's favorability decreases slightly. The former is mainly supporters of Green Camp supporters, while the latter is because the Kuomintang has recently fallen into internal fighting and has continued to disturb.

As for personal support, from the perspective of cross -analysis, the support of Pan Green's support for President Tsai has indeed risen a lot.When Lai Qingde was announced to participate in the party's preliminary selection, the proportion of Pan Green people supported Lai Qingde as high as 56.3%, and it was 35.1%of Tsai Ing -wen.However, President Tsai successively moved to raise the opposing atmosphere on both sides of the strait, including some people that President Tsai may retreat to the party, and after the use of public resources to build the momentum, the polls in mid -April show that the pan -green people have to Cai Yingwen and Lai Qingde to Cai Yingwen and Lai Qingde.The support gap has been greatly reduced.In late April, the support of the green people's support and even reversed, and it became Tsai Ing -wen to win Lai Qingde.

Judging from the previous discussion, it seems that Cai Yingwen is expected to turn over.But this is just illusion.Because it is based on the support of the pan -green people, the election cannot just look at the attitude of the pan -green people.From the perspective of the support of all voters, especially looking at the mutual comparison polls of Tsai Ing -wen and Lai Qingde's support, President Tsai is still chasing hard, and Lai Qingde is behind each of the polls.

Among the green people, President Cai's support has changed from its original backward to Lai Qingde; but from the support of all the people, especially the middle voters, President Cai is not a opponent of Lai Qingde at all.This clearly presents President Tsai's preferences that the DPP is going towards a basic doctrine such as pan -green, but it cannot be accepted by middle voters.For the Democratic Progressive Party, of course, it is a dead end of the DPP.

In order to be re -elected, President Tsai constantly released the conversation of the preliminary selection polls to cause split within the party, but he also said that his polls would never lose.Of course, this contradictory conversation may only be self -deceiving, but there may also be another calculation. This calculation is to delay the polls, strive for time, even sacrifice the blue polls, or forcing the DPP to change the mining of the DPP to make a change of mining.Pan Green poll.

According to the current measures, the President of the Democratic Progressive Party is carried out by the preliminary selection of the whole people. From the results of the major polls, President Tsai has no chance of winning.However, after President Tsai ’s strong operation in the past period, if you only conduct polls for pan -green supporters, President Tsai will indeed have a chance to win.The problem is that this kind of presidential candidate who only has the support of pan -green people, but is completely unable to attract middle voters, will continue to help the DPP to maintain the central governing power, or the DPP will continue to defeat in the election.clear.

Everyone knows that this party continues like this. The 2020 election will inevitably repeat the mistakes of the 2018 election defeat. Unfortunately, after the DPP gets the power of power, there are too few people who insist on telling the truth.Now Tsai Ing -wen abducted the DPP, and was also cheap to be the president. He used national resources to propagate himself, squeezed Lai Qingde to the edge, and used all kinds of unfair ways to win the victory.Democratic value of the party.

In order to grasp the power tightly, Tsai Ing -wen did not hesitate to destroy the DPP's primary tradition. He did not want to give the former Executive Dean Lai Qingde the opportunity to get fair competition;To strengthen the prestige and opportunities of re -election presidents, such a fire will be involved in all Taiwanese.