Zhou Hao: What information does the Politburo meeting pass?Last year, the adverse cycle regulation continued. In fact, the market actually misjudged Chinese economic policy, which led to confusion in the current policy expectations.
After the announcement of the economic data in the first quarter, when the market was preparing to prepare for a big job, the Politburo meeting on April 19 was like a basin of cold water, and it suddenly extinguished the expected expectations of the downstream.Although many people are unwilling to admit it, the possibility of the marginal tightening of monetary policy has risen significantly.
The press release of the Politburo Meeting on April 19 and the first quarter meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee announced earlier can be confirmed by each other.It will be on the agenda of the discussion.
The problems about the economy in the Politburo Meeting are mainly structural and institutional, but not periodic, which also means that the monetary policy that emphasizes counter -cyclical adjustment has completed its stable economy purpose.Exit is a high probability event.
In my opinion, since China has continued to step up the regulation of the adverse cycle in the second half of last year, the market has actually misjudged a few misjudgment of China's economic policy, and such misjudgment has also led to the current policy of chaos.
The first misjudgment in the market is that China does not have enough ability to reverse the economic downturn.This is not only reflected in the abnormality of the economic outlook at the beginning of the year, but also the disappointment of monetary policy in the market.The misjudgment of this series has led to the main investment banks at the beginning of the year to lower the outlook on inflation, and the concerns about the shrinkage occupy the mainstream emotions of the market.
At the same time, a little bit of credit, the market shouted unsustainable and arbitrage prevailing, but the credit declined slightly, but shouted that the economic instability was shouted and demanded a strong reduction in interest rates.Such a misjudgment has led to the stability of the economy at the moment, and when the policy begins to show signs of Uachine, the market will take it for granted that the monetary policy will still be loose, and the possibilities of inflation at the moment will be attributed to swine fever (meaning this is only one nature.The external impact) even thinks that the policy level is just hard.
Related to the first misjudgment is that many market participants underestimate China's official deleveraging.In all fairness, the Politburo meeting does not seem to put deleveraging in a very prominent position. Of course, there are various considerations to consider mdash; MDASH; for example, the U -shaped reversal of the policy does not want to have policies, and I hope to wait for more data to introduce help.Judgment and so on, but the author believes that the judgment of structural and institutional issues can be considered as the perspective of an authoritative interview in May 2016.
In other words, China no longer pursues high -speed growth, and even largely, as long as the market emotions remain stable, Chinese officials will actively reduce the stimulus and allow the economic growth to decline in the second half of the year.Continue to be prepared.From this perspective, it may not be a wise approach to increase the annual growth rate of annual growth rate according to individual data.In the future, economic data is likely to have a large jump. Should the market continue to follow the waves?
Even if many economic indicators make many people don't understand, I believe that the market's understanding of credit growth indicators is not too different.From the perspective of the growth rate of the stock market in March, its year -on -year growth rate has reached 10.7%, and the annual target growth rate is equivalent to the growth rate of nominal GDP.At present, the growth rate of nominal GDP in 2019 is difficult to exceed 9.5%, and the growth rate of social finance is almost 11%. In fact, such scissors mean that monetary policy has the possibility of border tightening.
The third misjudgment of the market for the Chinese economy is to overestimate the willingness of China to promote the trade agreement.In fact, from the various information and signals released by China, China does not mind continuing to talk with the United States. At the same time, China has also made various preparations for MDash; MDASH; including unable to reach a trade agreement.At the same time, China has stated on many occasions that in the issue of exchange rate issues, China may only promise not to devalue competitiveness, rather than willing to promise the exchange rate to stabilize or even appreciate.Even so, the market still adheres to the conclusion of China and the United States to reach an agreement means that the RMB will be appreciated rapidly, which is indeed puzzling.
On the issue of China and the United States, I believe that the market has a consensus. This will not be a bilateral relations that will turn dry in the night. The competition and cooperation between China and the United States will continue for a long time.If you recognize such basic judgments, the market should also be clear that whether China and the United States can reach a trade agreement do not mean that the relationship between the two parties will enter a stable period or a period of friction.
The fundamental interests between China and the United States determine that no one will easily turn his face, and no one will quit his heart.Although most market participants recognize such judgments, the market has repeatedly moved to extremes in the trade war issues. For example, the fiercest time in the fourth quarter of last year was very pessimistic about reaching the prospect of reaching the trade agreement, but now it will make significant to China to China.The prospects for concessions to reach a trade agreement are extremely optimistic.In the author's opinion, such an extreme emotion that is not the other is the unilateral position of the market to a large extent.
The above three misjudgments have led to the relatively chaotic market expectations at the moment. Of course, the viewers' views are largely subject to the performance of the stock and bond market.Hope.But in fact, the counter -cycle policy will be exited sooner or later, especially when the economy has a stable signal.
The exit of extremely loose strategies is actually a test of the quality of economic growth itself. If the economy itself is tough, there is no need to worry too much about the stock market. If the lack of a virtuous cycle between economic growth and corporate profits, then each rise and each timeFalling is just cutting leeks.
Still, the fundamental fundamentals will not change within a few months, but market sentiment will be reversed overnight.China's policy has always been hoping to achieve a balance between growth, debt and leverage, over -interpretation and misunderstanding of the market, and the interference of transaction positions for emotions, which is the fundamental reason for many people to be trapped in policies to interpret the quagmire.
Note: This article only represents the author's personal point of view
Editor of this article Xu Jin [email protected]
