Zheng Weibin: The ＂cross -border＂ of the extreme military aircraft of cross -strait

Zheng Weibin

Not long ago, the Chinese military aircraft broke through the Taiwan Strait's midline for 10 minutes. In addition to causing Taiwan President Tsai Ing -wen's tough statement, it also caused serious concern of the US State Department and the United States in the Taiwan Association in the Taiwan Association.

The United States has always paid close attention to the changes in the situation in Taiwan, and serves as a balancer and referee on both sides of the strait, opposing any side of the bilateral side to change the status quo on both sides of the strait.Especially this year is the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Taiwan Relations Law in the United States, which is of great significance.At the same time, since the administration of US President Trump, due to changes in Sino -US relations, China and the United States have taken competition as the main axis, so Taiwan's status has risen suddenly.

Since the first call of Trump and Tsai Ing -wen in 2016, the United States has issued a succession of Taiwan Travel French Defense Authorization Act and the Asian Re -Initiative Affairs Law.Taiwan's support.

However, from the perspective of content, the above three bills have not exceeded the standard content of the Taiwan Relations Law. What is really worthy of attention is the draft of the Taiwan guarantee law proposed by the six cross -party senators in the United States, but it may surpass the Taiwan Relations Law.And substantially change the relationship between the United States and Taiwan.

The draft of the Taiwan guarantee law mainly reiterates the United States' commitments to Taiwan in three aspects, including: 1. In terms of security, support Taiwan's implementation of asymmetric defense strategies, call on Taiwan to increase national defense budgets, and require US administrative departments to regularly carry out regular defense of Taiwan's defense defenseWeapons transfer, at the same time restarting bilateral free trade talks with Taiwan; 2. Supporting a meaningful participation of Taiwan's special organization in the United Nations and its specialized organizations; 3. The U.S. administrative departments are required to review the policy program for Taiwan and relieve the temporary restrictions.

Although literally, the draft is intended to enhance Taiwan's ability to deal with the pressure of mainland China, but in essence, it is the essence of inheriting the Taiwan Relations Law, that is, to safeguard the interests of the United States in this region, to ensure the United States' cross -strait relations, East Asia, East Asia, East Asia, East Asia, East Asia, East Asia, East Asia, East Asia, East Asia, East Asia, East Asia, East Asia, East Asia, East Asia, East Asia, East Asia, East Asia, East Asia, East Asia.Regional influence and dominance.Undoubtedly, in the face of the active attack in mainland China in recent years, the United States must expand the cards in their hands.From the Taiwan Relations Law to the draft law of the law of law, this is the manifestation of this change.

In fact, if the US military forces have appeared more frequently in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea in the past year or two, it is easier to understand the consideration of the United States in this regard.Judging from this level, Chinese military aircraft break through the mid -line of the Taiwan Strait, and there may not be warnings on the heating up with the United States and Taiwan.

Although the draft of the Taiwan guarantee has not yet passed the relevant legal procedures, it is not known whether it can become a new legal replacement of the Taiwan Relations Law. However, from the change of the content of the relevant themes of the Taiwan Relations Law to the relevant themes of the Taiwan guarantee law, the signal behind it is worth thinking.

Since the DPP's administration in 2016, and Beijing's determination to solve the increasingly firm determination to solve Taiwan's issue, cross -strait relations have obviously changed, and the changes in the situation in the Taiwan Strait have become inevitable.

Although the United States has repeatedly emphasized the change of Taiwan's current situation, in terms of reality, the trend of this change is inevitable.Therefore, in the United States, the focus is not on who changes the status quo of cross -strait relations, but whether the United States can play the role of a balanced person and referee.

Based on the changes in Sino -US relations, from the past cooperation as the main, to the main axis of competition, it means that the United States will be difficult to respond to mainland China as easily as the past. The role of the United States to continue to play the referee will be difficult.

In the relationship between mainland China and the United States and Taiwan, it was generally believed that this was unequal triangle relations in the past, which is dominated by China and the United States. Taiwan is relatively weak.However, due to the changes in Sino -US relations, the changes in the internal governors in Taiwan may gradually transform from the triangle relations into a situation of the two armies.In other words, we must balance the pressure from the mainland. Whether it is the DPP in Taiwan or the Kuomintang, they can only rely on the power of the United States. The difference is only to the extent.At present, Tsai Ing -wen is in charge of Taiwan's political power, and almost falls unconditionally to the United States.

The Indo -Pacific Strategy in the United States obviously wants to borrow from Taiwan.The draft of the Taiwan guarantee law is clear that Taiwan is an important part of the strategy.From this, it is certain that when the unequal triangle relationship transforms into a situation between the two sides, Taiwan will also become the outpost of the game between the two sides.

To this end, it is not surprising that the United States strengthening Taiwan's military sales or improving its defense capabilities.The key to the problem is whether the United States will infinitely enhance the strength of Taiwan to ensure that the mainland cannot unify Taiwan, and the two sides of the strait will always be separated?If it is not unconditional, where is it?

Knowing this point, you will know where the limit of cross -strait relations is.

It is obviously impossible to support Taiwan to maintain the current separation state unconditionally and permanently.Although the U.S. administrative department and politicians talk about Taiwan, they all praise Taiwan's contribution to the democratic political system, in the final analysis, the consideration of the interests of realism is the ultimate ending of the US decision.Therefore, the US support for Taiwan may only be based on the interests of the United States.

In this context, if the three parties on both sides of the strait continue to improve the chips on the Taiwan issue, the situation in Taiwan will only become more and more tense, and the consequences may be unimaginable.As far as Taiwan is concerned, if Taiwan has been excessively dependent on the United States for a long time, once it reaches the limit point, the United States will suddenly abandon Taiwan, and Beijing ’s plugging strategy to Taiwan will be reached overnight.

Although Beijing's siege strategy is time -consuming, it can continue to consume and suffocate Taiwan's energy.The United States is currently that Taiwan can rely on external forces. As long as the channels are unblocked, Taiwan's space will not completely disappear.But as mentioned above, between the limit of the three -party balance, Taiwan's final ventilation pipeline will be completely closed, and the situation will be turned overnight.

Where is the limit point of cross -strait relations?Three parties must think in other places to avoid serious changes in the region when they reach this limit.Especially in Taiwan, the key to small is among them.

The author is Beijing Freelance