Author: Martdot; Jacques

What kind of global country will China be?Ten years ago, this problem may not be as urgent today.Ten years later, the situation has changed a lot.First of all, since the Western financial crisis in 2008, the decline of the United States has become increasingly prominent; secondly, China has continued to rise since that crisis.In the past ten years, China's economy has doubled; and the US economy has only increased by about 10 %.

These changes have also brought some other results. Under the leadership of the new generation of leaders, China's foreign policy has changed. From Deng Xiaoping's tightness, it has never developed to become more outward and broaden today.China is no longer just passively accepted globalization and its rules, but has become the constructor and shaped by globalization.The West is facing a new situation.The biggest difficulty in the West is that it is always passive on the Chinese issue and does not keep up with the rhythm, because the West does not believe that China will succeed, and does not believe that China's development is sustainable.Now that the West must accept the facts, the world is undergoing tremendous changes, and we must understand this change in any case.

The most fatal problem in the West is that we do not understand China deep in our thinking. Our thinking paradigm believes that the West is universal. In the end, everyone in the world should, must, and must become similar to us.In other words, there is only one modernity in the world, which is the modernity of the West.

Honestly, this method can no longer be maintained.Because in the world not only a huge change in China, the history, politics, and cultural roots of many developing countries are different from the West.In this context, we must start trying to understand the differences between China and the West.Regardless of the past, the present or the future, there are huge differences between China and the West.Although China and the West also have parties and similarities, the differences between the two are fundamental and long -lasting.I just say four points:

First, when we mention the country, we will think of the nation -state, but China must not be simply classified as the national country.In my opinion, we should not just regard China as a nation -state, and we should also regard it as a civilized country. Its inheritance is the inheritance of civilization.China ’s understanding of national-social relations, Confucian values, personal social roles, interpersonal relationships, and even Chinese food and language are the civilized heritage inherited by China. Their history is much longer than that of China as a national country.China is both a civilized country and a nation -state. Looking at China from this perspective, we can truly understand its differences.

Second, we always think that China is a country with deep centralization, and all the decisions of operating the country are from Beijing. Of course, this is not true.China has a population of 1.4 billion, and it is impossible for Beijing to be determined by Beijing.China has summarized an experience in the long history. The only way to maintain unification and ensure the normal operation of the national machine is to give sufficient respect for local differences, or one article, that is, a variety of civilizations.The most obvious example of contemporary contemporary is to put forward the concept of one country, two.This thinking is very different from the thinking of the nation -state. It comes from the long history of civilization in China, and it will never have this idea.

Third, the relationship between the country and society.We believe that governance is essentially universal selection and multi -party system, but China is different.Because of this, the West has long believed that China's current system is unsustainable and lacks legitimacy.However, if you pay attention to academic research on Chinese governance and the global attitude investigation of the Pew Center, you will find that the Chinese people are very satisfied with government governance and are completely sustainable.Despite the huge differences between the Chinese system and the West, it still enjoys huge support and sufficient legitimacy.This legitimacy must be different from the legitimacy of the Western government, because our legitimacy originated from the democratic procedures I just mentioned.There are three important factors for this legitimacy: one is that the Chinese people think of the country as the incarnation and guardians of society; the other is that the Chinese people's thoughts on national governance originated from the family, so the family is the epitome of the country; the third is that China is at least at least in at least in the country.In the Sui and Tang dynasties, there was a tradition of choosing Xianneng.These factors are integrated together, which leads to the different understanding of Chinese governance than Westerners, and this governance model is very effective.

Fourth, the West and China have a very different understanding of universal understanding.Both Europe and China have one thing in common during the heyday.Europe regards universal nature as a presence of the gospel. To transform the world, it will pass the information of civilization to the unprecedented land through colonial, religious, language, and culture.China does not think that universal performance is its own externalization, but believes that it is the central kingdom, the heaven, and the ultimate form of civilization. Therefore, there is no need to leave China at all.Therefore, the universal nature of China is a left -behind universal nature, and the universal nature of the West is a universal nature that develops overseas.

Differential differences are very important for understanding China's worldview and China's global role.

The expansion of all countries follows a law. First of all, the economy is not strong to become a strong country?Therefore, regardless of Britain, the United States, or China, all major powers in modern history meet this law to varying degrees.This is a very important thing in common.But in addition, when reviewing the history of China and the West, a significant difference will be found.In Western traditions, military strength, political power, and political control are very important, and the manifestation of its heyday is colonialism.China is different. In the 500 years from the mid -14th century to the mid -19th century, the only large -scale foreign war in China was fighting with Vietnam, and in that 500 years, it was only in the United Kingdom and France.The 142 wars broke out, which shows that China basically does not invade other countries, nor does it interfere with the internal affairs of other countries.Therefore, to some extent, the tradition of Chinese troops in China is actually not deep. The Chinese people really attach importance to cultural strength.In this way, the Western tradition and Chinese tradition have embarked on two roads. The West highly emphasizes military strength and China highly emphasizes cultural strength. Although both attach importance to economic strength, we must know that due to the impact of the population scale, China's future in the future of ChinaThe economic strength may be much stronger than all major powers in history.

I think China is the following major characteristics as a global country: First, China's economic strength.We must admit that China's economic transformation is remarkable. In 2015, China's GDP accounted for more than 15 % of the global total, and it has now reached 16 % -17 %.This is very amazing. By 2030 or 2035, the GDP contributed by China will reach one -third of the global total. The Chinese economy will be greater than the total of the United States and Europe. Although we cannot completely eliminate the accidents, these predictions generally overallIt will become a reality. In view of the recent history, we must attach great importance to such predictions, otherwise it may make a big mistake.

The second is the relationship between China and developing countries.There is no doubt that in the cognition of China, the most important bilateral relations are Sino -US relations, but from a strategic point of view, I don't think this is an accurate way to understand China's foreign relations and priority matters.The highest priority is the relationship with developing countries.To explain this, the key is to understand where China comes from.In 1978, China was very poor when the reform and opening up, and the per capita income was even lower than many African countries. Therefore, it has some kind of closeness to developing countries and can understand various problems facing developing countries.Many people criticize the relationship between China and African countries, but if you look at the polls of African countries, 65 % of Africans have a positive attitude towards China.According to forecasts, by 2030, developing countries, known as southern countries, will contribute 67 %, and only 33 % will come from developed countries.Therefore, China will naturally attach great importance to the relationship with developing countries.

The third is the Belt and Road.China has learned a lot of experience in the process of dealing with developing countries, especially Africa, especially in Africa.Now that it has been vigorously promoted, China has invested huge funds, and many countries along the line show great enthusiasm for this initiative because they have seen opportunities to improve their current situation.I think this can reflect the attitudes of countries to the Belt and Road Initiative.Like the Asian Investment Bank, the United States basically has an attitude of not participating in the Belt and Road Initiative, and recently announced another strategy to compete with it.I personally think this isa mistake.The United States should participate in the Belt and Road, because if you do not participate, you cannot shape relevant rules and systems.The replacement plan proposed by the United States is serious in terms of funds. Whether it is currently a foreseeable future, it cannot be compared with China's huge investment.At the same time, we must also admit that there are some severe problems in some countries all the way.Where is the problem?I think this problem is formed by factors such as greed, corruption, hasty, and recklessness. China lacks the understanding of the political environment of the countries along the route and underestimates the importance of civil organizations.However, these difficulties will definitely not overwhelm the Belt and Road. In the long run, I think the Belt and Road will be successful.

In addition, do not underestimate the tremendous changes that the Belt and Road can bring to governance models.At present, there is no truly powerful regional organization in Eurasia. I think the concept of future nation -states may change, and new regional organizations may be born, which means that the governance methods in the entire region will revolution.Due to the low degree of participation in Europe and the United States, the importance of RMB in countries along the Belt and Road will become more and more prominent, and China's legal voice in related projects will become greater.

Fourth, Sino -US relations.I think that Sino -US relations have entered the waters that have not been surveyed, and this era of Nixon and Mao Zedong has ended since 1972.Why is it over?Because the US position has changed.Why does the United States change their position?Because the United States has not regarded China as its own opponent for a long time, this relationship is very unequal.Americans now have a mentality that China is a threat, or at least a challenge.I think that when discussing Sino -US relations, we exaggerate the importance of Chinese military expenditure.China is not the Soviet Union. China has always not valued its military strength as West and Russia, and the United States cannot prevent China's rise, unless it launch a nuclear war.The rise of China is a great and extraordinary historical moment, and behind it is the fundamental change of the world.

The most fundamental problem of competition between China and the United States is not trade, but in innovation.The West believes that China does not have real innovation capabilities and cannot make creative and radical changes.I think this is a very serious misunderstanding.The gradual innovation of all levels of Chinese society has accumulated huge innovative thinking ability.After a long -term accumulation process, China now has strong innovation capabilities, creating many things we can't imagine, and becoming a world innovation country.The rise of China's economy will challenge the United States, but the United States' response to protectionism is wrong.In fact, with the fierce competition of the Chinese economy and vitality, American companies should join them and learn from China. This is very important.

For the West, especially the United States, the most critical issue is how to find another way to deal with China.The West cannot continue to think that it is the world's first and solid self -proclaimed. Instead, it is necessary to jump out of the world that has been accustomed to it for a long time and learn to live in the new situation.I think the biggest challenge in the United States is to learn to adapt to the new world, accept China as a very powerful competitor, and determine a new form of cooperation and confrontation.

(The author is a senior researcher at Cambridge University in the United Kingdom, a visiting professor at Tsinghua University, and a visiting professor of the Chinese Academy of China University of Fudan University, Middot; Jacques. This article is a speech at the 32nd Camen Annual Conference in February this year) (Selected)