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New Yiye
China's official economic data released on Wednesday (17th) generally exceeded market expectations this year, making some people optimistic that the inflection point of the growth rate has arrived. It is expected that the growth of GDP may undergo a background and even accelerate.
The Politburo Conference held two days later, when analyzing and studying the current economic situation and deployment related work, it also affirmed the first quarter economic performance.The meeting believed that the main macroeconomic indicators remained in a reasonable range, and the market confidence was significantly improved. The conversion of new and old kinetic energy was accelerated. Reform and opening up continued to be effectively promoted. The economic operation was generally stable, better than expected, and good start.
However, the Politburo meeting also warned that there were still many difficulties and problems in economic operation. The external economic environment was generally tightened, and the domestic economy had downward pressure.For this reason, we must maintain a convention, enhance endurance, and be brave to overcome difficulties.Such a judgment means that the inflection point of China's economic growth is too much.
At the same time, this is also the first time that Chinese officials have proposed that the economic downturn has institutional factors, which has attracted a lot of attention in the market.Some analysts believe that this is the biggest highlight of the Politburo's meeting, and even the most important sentence of the entire meeting, indicating that the future policy focus will change.
Some observers sorted out China's official statement in recent years and found that before 2015, the official judgment was that the economic downturn mainly came from short -term cyclical factors, such as fluctuations in the real estate market.Since 2015, the official research and judgment of economic slowdown is mainly affected by the structural factors of the medium and long term, including overcapacity and aging population.The former can rely on fiscal and monetary policy to relieve; the latter needs to adjust the economic structure, including de -capacity and deleveraging.
In recent years, the official assessment has been the overlapping of these two factors that have led to a decline in economic growth.The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year pointed out that the economic operation in 2018 has changed steadily, changing worry, the external environment is complicated and severe, and the economy is facing decline pressure.These problems are problems in advance. There are both short -term and long -term, both periodic and structural.
Four months later, the official judgment has changed, and the economic downturn has also been blamed on institutional factors for the first time, and it is believed that institutional factors and structural factors play a greater role.If the Institute of Finance believes that the connotation is rich, in short, many systems have been outdated and urgently need to be completely institutional reform.
In the opinion of Tian Guoqiang, the dean of the School of Economics of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, institutional factors can be understood as economic institutional reasons, mainly because there is no definition of the governance border between the government and the market, the government and society.
Although market participants have divergent expectations for whether the stimulus and easing policy will come to an end, it is generally believed that the need for officials to promote reform will increase and its intensity will increase.
In fact, the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year has required structural policies to strengthen the construction of institutional mechanisms, adhere to the power of reform, and stipulate that the economic system reform is one of the key tasks of this year.Related reforms are deeply practical.The specific work includes the deepening of the reform of the financial system with adjustment and optimization of the financial system structure, the promotion of the reform of the fiscal and taxation system, improve the local tax system, and standardize the government's debt financing mechanism.
For the first time, the Politburo's meeting also requested that the high -quality development of the manufacturing industry is an important support for steady growth, guiding traditional industries to accelerate transformation and upgrading, strengthening and strengthening emerging industries, and showing that high -level high -level determination to promote reform and develop new economy.The Central Finance and Economics Commission meeting held on the 22nd of this month further demanded that high -level openness is forced to deepen reforms.
It can be said that the official has been promoted to promote the reform in recent times.Today, the Politburo no longer mentions the six stability (stable employment, stability of finance, stabilizing foreign trade, stable foreign investment, stable investment, and stable expectations) that have been implemented for steady growth.Reform measures.
With the official advancement of the deeper economic system reform, in order to cope with the structural and institutional factors that lead to downward pressure on the economy, it is foreseeable that the economic growth may continue to slow down.However, this will also provide a good system and institutional environment for the long -term development of the economy, which should be a good thing for the overall economic development.
