Huang Yizhen, Yang Zhuohan, and Chen Liangrong: Guo Taiming's election is bound to have a considerable degree with Hon Hai.But can Hon Hai really put it down now?Who can pick up the stick of Hon Hai Empire?

On the morning of April 16th, Guo Taiming, chairman of Hon Hai Technology Group (Foxconn for its trademark name), participated in the Indo -Pacific Security Dialogue Seminar held by the United States Association (AIT) in Taipei.Before entering the field, when the media asked when to decide to choose the president, Guo Taiming blurted out for the past two days, and even revealed that he might participate in the Kuomintang primaries.(Editor's Note: Guo Taiming has officially announced the addition of the 2020 Taiwan election on Tuesday (16th), and will participate in the Kuomintang primary election.)

This answer, after the rapid spread of online media and television news, instantly shocked MDASH; mdash; Is the rumor true, maybe the richest man in Taiwan may really become the president of Taiwan?

A person who learned about Hong Kong's love revealed to the world that as early as Trump and South Korean Yu and other atypical politicians won the election campaign, Guo Taiming had a desirable thought.

Guo Taiming is a person who loves face, and this person pointed out.Therefore, Guo Taiming did not dare to sound at first. The ducks first set the Facebook and LINE fan pages in January and March this year to express their needles on national affairs and tentatively reacting. There were even a group of people inside Hon Hai in Hon Hai.Specialized for polls and test water temperature.

During the seminar on the 16th, Guo Taiming was surrounded by the media again.He began to talk about it. Many questions about the height of the president. When the atmosphere began to go to the political opinion presentation, there was a media question, Guo Dong, can you let Hon Hai?

This is a good question. He answered carefully, and then he talked about a anecdotes that had never been disclosed in the past, and it was related to the death of the god of Taiwan's business and founder of Formosa Plastics Group Wang Yongqing.

I once said a word to Chairman Wang Yongqing. He said, maybe you don't know that Wang Yongqing had retreated to the second line.Guo Taiming believes that the reason is his suggestion. He told Wang Yongqing that Emperor Qianlong's 60 years was the key to the Qing Dynasty from prosperity to decline, and he should give more work to young people.

He then turned around and returned to the cadres of his company. I trained them and worked together for 40 years. I had to learn to let go before they would learn to grow.

From Guo Taiming's public conversation and judgment, the presidential president is still in the long test stage, but it seems that it is imperative to let go and return to the second line.

According to the Taiwan public official property declaration law, the domestic listing and top stocks held by the presidential election (including spouse and minor children) must apply for trust and declare within 3 months from the inauguration date.The 1.33 million Zhang Hon Hai stocks held by Guo Taiming, once all trusts, his qualifications of Hon Hai's directors will not be lost.

However, it may be difficult for Taiwan to accept the general publicity in Taiwan. The respect of a country also participates in the operation of a large enterprise.Once Guo Taiming decided to run, he would cut with Hon Hai a considerable degree.

But now Hon Hai really allows Guo Taiming to let go?

Pretty stock price warning

Hon Hai's stock price is the most eye -catching time in the past six months.Since the end of March, Hon Hai announced the results of the fourth quarter of 2018, which exceeded expectations. Since then, Hon Hai's stock price has risen by 22%(until April 16), and it has also recovered the second largest market value enterprise in Taiwan stocks.status.

However, looking closely at the recent reports of foreign research, behind Hon Hai's bright stock price, it is still full of warning.

For example, JPMORGAN, who has been conservative in Hon Hai since September 2017, changed Hon Hai's evaluation to buy on April 11, and the target price remained at 105 yuan in December last year.Analyst Gokul Hariharan pointed out in the report that the main reason for this mobilization evaluation is:

1. The three major issues of key investors have responded to the stock price of the three major issues of the iPhone shipments, Hon Hai's 2019 revenue growth, and the unclear future strategy.

2. Hon Hai Subsidon FIH (FIH) set a record of NT $ 26.8 billion in 2018. It is one of the main reasons for Hon Hai's low -wave stock price in the front of Hon Hai, but Fuzhi Kang's rescue plan has been on the road.

Fu Zhikang has been supplied to the Nokia brand mobile phone designed by the Finnish new company HMD since the second half of 2017, and has suffered huge losses.In 2019, Fu Zhikang faded out of the Nokia supply chain, so starting from the second half of 2019, gross profit can be significantly improved.

At the same time, Hon Hai also began to cut business costs.It can be seen from the financial report of the fourth quarter of 2018 that operating profits began to go up, operating expenses decreased 15%from the same period last year, and operating profits in 2019 should rise.

3. iPhone sales expectations are now at the bottom, short -term sales expectations are stable. If Apple is willing to adjust the price, the situation will be better.

However, Hon Hai's current value (Valuation) is low in history. The net stock price in 2019 is only 0.9 times, which is lower than the financial tsunami.This is one of the reasons why JPMORGAN shouted.

In other words, Hon Hai's wave of stock price is corrected upward, the main causes from disposable factors such as cutting costs, negative nets, etc.In fact, JPMORGAN is still not optimistic about Hon Hai's future revenue momentum.It is expected that the whole year of 2019 will be negative growth. In 2020 and 2021, it will only grow slightly. The high growth in the past few years is gone.

Several other foreign capitals have similar views.Deutsche Bank believes that the gross profit margin of Hon Hai in the fourth quarter is very bright, but this is the effect of cutting cost (Cost DOWN), which cannot be continued in the long run.

In the long run, Deutsche Bank believes that reducing expenditure may limit Hon Hai's diversified business strategy.Therefore, although the target and EPS prediction are improved, it still maintains neutrality.

Can you get rid of the curse of the post -Apple era?

Citi Bank's long -term prospects for Hon Hai are even more pessimistic. They believe that although the number of Hon Hai's fourth quarter of 2018 is temporarily out of danger, the future prospects are still not optimistic, because mobile phone demand has declined and industrial competition is fierce.Although the stock price will rise in the future, the volatility of gross profit will become larger, and now it is too early to buy buying.

In other words, Hon Hai, an annual revenue of NT $ 5.3 trillion, has a multi -party transformation attempt to enter the master Sharp and revive the NOKIA brand, but still has not stepped out of the curse of Apple.It will follow the weak sales of big customers and sink together.

Many people are curious. What about Huawei orders that have spread on TV and newspapers before?Huawei is the most powerful mobile phone brand this year. It really got the large single of Huawei mobile phones, and Hon Hai was like a dose of strong needle.

A few days ago, Huawei's new mobile phone P30 was assembled by Hon Hai Zhengzhou plant.A supply chain person who knows Hon Hai refutes that the Zhengzhou plant is specifically used to assemble Apple iPhone mobile phones. Apple will not allow another competitors to come in and share.

It is understood that at present, Huawei mobile phones are assembled by Fan Honor Group, which is responsible for non -Apple's assembly.However, the high -level P30 is not assembled in Fuzhi Kang, but in Huawei's own Dongguan plant.

Who can pick up?

At that time, the brothers Wang Yongqing were able to retreat to the second line, mainly because the investment of the Liuqing Refinery at that time had been greatly successful, and the glory in the next ten years was expected.

But now Guo Taiming is still running around for Hon Hai's growth momentum in the post -Apple era. The investment of the Weizhou Plant in the United States and the Japanese Sharp has not yet reached the harvest period.

At this moment, once Guo Taiming decides to run for the president, he must let the cadres learn to grow up, who can resistBelow Guo Taiming's stick of Hon Hai Empire?

Reuters (Reuters) named the old minister and the chairman of Hongteng Precision Lu Songqing.But a cadre of the Pan Hon Hai Group pointed out that he had never heard that Lu Songqing was named the successor.

Lu is indeed a great leader who can lead the business. President Dai's operating skills are also very powerful, but in fact, Mother Qian (referring to Hon Hai Vice President Huang Qiulian) will make money most. This senior level pointed out that the generals have their own strengths.

A senior scientific and technological analyst observed that Hon Hai Group has successively controlled in the past few years. It has been separated from the company and the small golden chicken to the market, and the parent company has controlled.Behind the scenes of the entire empire's retreat, there is no longer a strong man Hon Hai, and it is like a federal country.

The current Hon Hai Group is just like the warlords have their own hills and their own listings, and they are not convinced by each other.Now because there is another Guo Taiming coordinating, but after he is not serving as the helmsman of the group in the group, Hon Hai Group has no central leadership, will the Empires disintegrate?This senior analyst believes that if you think about it, this is actually not good for Hon Hai.

(The original text was published on the website of the World Magazine. This article only represents the author's point of view.)