Shen Xiaojie: China vigorously promotes the implementation of rural modernization, which can provide at least more than $ 2 trillion in the future. This is the biggest card that cannot be ignored by historical opportunities and the best development path.
In late January this year, the author's first article on the first article of Chinese rural modernization published on FT Chinese website pointed out: Without any country, it can realize the modernization of the country without the premise of not achieving the modernization of rural areas; there is no any any of them.In the state of the state without the modernization of farmers' income, it can achieve the modernization of wealth for the whole people.
Any modernization in China cannot around the village's modernization.On the basis of this, further inferences, it is proposed that the hollow, poverty and marginalization of the villages in China today are precisely for China's next modern development, providing sufficient space and development potential.
China's rural modernization, why can we carry the heavy responsibility of making the next Chinese modernization?Why can rural modernization be the biggest cornerstone and core cards for China to move towards developed countries in the future? What is the logic?Not long ago, a small notice issued by the General Office of the Ministry of Housing and Urban -Rural Development may reveal the huge energy that rural modernization may bring to China to open a new sunroof.
According to the notice issued by the Ministry of Housing and Urban -Rural Development on the pilot work of rural housing construction, China will build a number of functional modern, rustic and economical, cost economy, structural safety, structure safety, structure safety, structural safety, structural security, structure safety, structure safety, structural safety, and structure of the construction of rural housing construction.Green and environmentally -friendly livable demonstration farm houses to promote the improvement of the living conditions and living environment of Chinese farmers.It is particularly interesting, or the notice puts forward specific task goals.
This is based on the establishment of a batch of demonstration agricultural houses this year. By 2022, the national pilot experience will be promoted and applied.The rural style is generally improved. Farmers basically live in livable farmhouses that adapt to new lifestyles.
In terms of time, this is exactly the goal of basically realizing socialist modernization with the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.
This proactive public notice is interpreted differently for the long -term urban and rural cities like Europe, and rural areas like Africa.
People with rich imagination will bluntly. This is China's second wave of real estate movements; that is, the rearrassment of rational four stability comments, and it is undeniable that this tentative balloon, indicating that in China's top -level design, it is increasingly hollow and poverty under the tide of urbanization under the tide of urbanization.The villages of Chinese villages, especially rural areas and the overall style of rural areas are becoming the goal of the next development and reform.The opening of this curtain provides sufficient space for the future development of China's economy and modernization.
So, in 2035, the peasants of Chinese farmers basically live in a livable farmhouse that adapts to the new lifestyle. This time, China's second wave of real estate (rural housing market) can support how much economic development can support China in the future.What about space?
According to a series of articles published in July 2017 to praise the development of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in July 2017, in 2016, the per capita housing construction area of residents nationwide was 40.8 square meters.The per capita housing area of residents was 36.6 square meters), and from 2012 to 2016, the average annual increase of 5.4%(cities and towns are 2.7%).
By the end of 2018, the per capita housing construction area of rural residents in China should be more than 50 square meters.Here, we use 50 square meters per capita as the housing level of the officially recognized Chinese rural residents, and use this to calculate the economic account of modern agricultural houses in China.
According to the 2017 annual statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, of the 13.908 million people in mainland China at the end of 2017, the urbanization rate of the household registration population was 42.35%.That is to say, the registered population rate in rural areas is 57.65%, and the country's rural household registration population is 800 million (801.3812 million).
According to the officially announced level of 50 square meters per capita housing, by the end of 2017, the total housing area of rural residents across the country should reach 40 billion square meters.But in reality, how much is the total number of households in rural China?In addition, how many of the existing existing housing in the countryside need to overthrow the reconstruction into a new and modern livable farmhouse in modern, safe, and green environmental protection?
According to the 2017 China Urban and Rural Construction Statistical Yearbook announced by the Chinese Ministry of Housing and Urban -Rural Development, the 756 million household registration population in mainland China has a total of 24.62 billion square meters of houses (32.6 square meters per capita) among mainland China.Based on this, 800 million rural residents have 2608 billion square meters of building housing.If optimistic estimates are estimated to be a livable farmhouse that meets the new lifestyle, then two -thirds of existing farmers' housing (about 17.4 billion square meters) need to be updated and rebuilt.
In addition, to reach the living level of 50 square meters per capita, there is a huge gap between the existing rural stock housing and the total amount of 40 billion square meters, and 13.92 billion square meters of housing is required to fill it.It adds the total amount of 17.4 billion square meters that needs to be renewed above, which means that in the next 15 years, rural China need to transform rural housing with a construction area of 31.3 billion square meters.
Most of the residential housing and urban real estate in rural China are built self -built houses. There are no high government land transfer funds and the profit of developers, which are basically invested costs.According to the standards of modern, safe, and environmentally friendly livable farmhouse standards in accordance with the function of the Ministry of Housing and Construction, it is estimated that it is estimated that from civil construction to the completion of housing (including simple decoration), the cost value of newly built farmers' housing per square meter is 2,000 yuanabout.The renovation of 31.3 billion square meters of farmers' housing can directly bring 62.6 trillion yuan of non -governmental investment.
In addition, the development of real estate will also bring high -intensity to other industries (from steel building materials, home decoration to electrical equipment, transportation, logistics and commercial services, etc.).With the data model of the World Bank commonly used in the academic community (a house per 100 yuan can drive 130 yuan MDASH; other consumption of 150 yuan) as a reference, comprehensively considering the reality of Chinese rural houses with relatively weak value calculation and consumption power, we will take itThis stretch coefficient is set to 100: 120, and 62.6 trillion newly built modern livable housing construction can be found, which can also bring GDP growth of 7.512 billion yuan.
The two are added, and only one new livable farmers' housing with a new standard can bring a GDP growth of 1.3772 trillion yuan in the next 15 years.
Rural modernization, in addition to the new construction of livable types of farmers' housing, there are also other aspects of the transformation and expansion of life, operations and commercial housing, as well as industrial housing for various industries transferred from emerging industries and cities.It is estimated that the real estate and the industries driven in this area will also be more than 40 trillion yuan.It adds it to the 13.772 trillion yuan of new livable farmers 'housing for newly -built and renovated new livable farmers' housing. The 15 -year investment in the rural houses requires 1.7.732 trillion yuan.
The average annual investment of 11.82 trillion yuan is equivalent to 14.3%national GDP (82712.2 billion yuan) in 2017.Imagine that in the future development of China's modernization, what else can it provide more room for development than rural housing and industrial housing?
The above is the huge development space that rural modernization may bring in housing and industrial housing.And urban modernizationCompared with the hardware investment, rural modernization construction in villages and towns, water conservancy and other infrastructure, water and electricity such as hydropower, environmental protection, and sewage treatment of hydropower and other aspects.Essence
Here, we may wish to be an idea. If the nation's towns and villages can reach the level of urban infrastructure and municipal construction, how much rural modernization will provide room for construction and development.
According to statistics from the Ministry of Housing and Construction of China in 2017, there were 661 cities and 1,526 counties in mainland China. The population of the urban area plus a total of 491.398 million people in the urban area (409.757 million and 81.64 million people);Among them, the construction area is 56225.4 square kilometers, and the urban construction land is 55155.5 square kilometers (the total urban area is 198357.2 square kilometers).
There are 18,100 towns and 39.26 million hectares (39260 square kilometers) in mainland China in mainland China, as well as 5,33017 administrative villages (natural villages are 244,8785) and the current land area of the village's current situation of 13.922 million hectares (only 2016 data, equivalent to the equivalent of the data, equivalent to the equivalent of the equivalent, equivalent1392.2 million square kilometers).Township and villages have a household registration population of 155 million and 756 million, with a total of 911 million people. The area of the area and the area of the village is 17,8480 square kilometers.
That is to say, the 18,100 towns in the countryside of Mainland China plus 2.449 million natural villages (533,000 administrative villages). Compared with 661 cities in China and 1526 counties, the ratio of population between the two is 1.86 to 1(911 million people: 490 million people), the actual land area ratio is 3.17 to 1 (178480 square kilometers: 56225.4 square kilometers).
If the level of towns and villages in mainland China, investment in infrastructure and municipal public construction is equivalent to the level of cities and counties, how much space will there be room for development?
Here, we do not calculate the specific matters (such as the use of water and gas, 10,000 people with public transportation vehicles, per capita road area, park green space area, etc.).The per capita method is compared to urban and townships and villages.
According to the data released by the Ministry of Housing and Urban -Rural Development of China, the total investment in fixed assets in municipal public facilities in 661 cities in mainland China and 1,526 counties in 2017 was 1932.76 billion yuan.The development level of Rugao City and Township is synchronized. According to the population ratio of 1.86 to 1 in the above cities and towns and villages, the annual average annual investment in the villages of villages in mainland China should be 3594.93 billion yuan.
The actual situation is that according to statistics from the Ministry of Housing and Construction, the investment in municipal public facilities in the first -level town in China is only 186.7 billion yuan (1866.8895 million yuan).Essence
These two are only 439.6 billion yuan, which is only equivalent to 12%of the per capita investment in Chinese cities.In other words, if it is calculated based on the principle of fairness and justice, the investment in public facilities at the two levels of rural towns and villages in China must also make up 3155.3336 billion yuan, which is equivalent to 3.8% of the national GDP (82712.22 billion yuan) in 2017 in 2017Essence
The above is still calculated in the modernization and reconstruction of existing hardware construction (rural housing, industrial housing and basic construction, municipal public facilities, etc.) in China's rural villages, which can provide huge space provided by China's future development.The above -mentioned average contribution rate alone has been added, which is equivalent to 18.1%of the national GDP in 2017.
In addition to the modernization of existing existing assets, the modernization of China's rural village will inevitably bring new development.The first is the development of urban and rural integration -type emerging undertakings that may bring in urban and rural integration and development of national strategies.
Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China officially established and improved the establishment of a mechanism and policy system for the integration of urban and rural integration as an important part of the country's strategy of rural revitalization, it has not seen a great achievement in this aspect, especially for more than a year.This is not to say that it is difficult to make great achievements in this area. On the contrary, it is because of the inertia thinking of the traditional three farmers' governance model that it has greatly checks the innovation in this area.
As early as a year ago, the author posted a rural revitalization on FT Chinese website. It is hoped that the city's middle class calls on the government to break the threshold in the design of the top -level policy and open up the urban retirement population to the rural areas to realize the rural pension Yangguan Avenue.
According to estimates, 780 million urban elderly people in rural pastoral pensions will reach 11.6 trillion yuan in investment in the construction of pension housing (calculated in 10 years, and the annual average of 1.16 trillion yuan can be reached 1.16 trillion yuan). In additionThe return of the rural labor population in the rural areas of the rural areas of the rural areas of the rural areas can be added every year 7 to 80 million pensions and more than 20 million pension and other service industry chains.8 trillion yuan consumer market.
The rural pastoral pension can bring nearly 3 trillion yuan (2.96 trillion yuan) industrial development to the countryside of China each year, which is equivalent to about 3.6%of the national GDP (82712.2 billion yuan) in 2017.If the rural economic growth that the urban and rural integration may bring in other aspects is considered, it is not a dream to contribute 5%of the national GDP to the national GDP each year.
And the emerging industries of the mobile Internet information era, the rural areas of emerging industries, and the transfer of traditional urban industries to the countryside, will also decline due to business costs (such as housing, industrial land and house construction, and labor prices).Convenience (such as the rural e -commerce platform brought by the Internet+rural rejuvenation, the remote control of smart industries and intelligent plant factories, especially the rural regression of entrepreneurship, work and life brought by the Internet), and hundreds of millions of rural villagesThe increase in labor and consumer population will change this development from quantitative to qualitative change, producing rapid changes in progress.
Above, the modernization of rural rural areas we can see may be the development space that China may bring in modern developed countries in the next 15 years.The connotation of modernization and a well -off society is definitely not only these aspects, but also a large number of software construction requires huge investment and construction of the government and society.For example, in terms of social security, medical care, basic education, and cultural and sports, China's investment in rural areas is far lower than the same level of cities.
Taking the basic medical and health care of the urban and rural areas as an example, according to a research report, at the low level of total health expenses in China, the distribution of total health expenses in urban and rural areas is also extremely uneven at the low level of GDP only 4.5%to 5%.The total urban health costs from 2003 to 2012 increased by nearly 4 times (from 415032 billion yuan to 21,06569 billion yuan), while the total rural health costs increased by about 2.8 times (from 243.378 billion yuan to 6, 78115 billion yuan).
Total costs of urban and rural areas accounted for the proportion of national total health expenses, and also significantly distorted from 55.6%to 44.4%to 67.2%to 32.8%(the highest proportion of cities reached 77.5%in 2007).
In 2012, the per capita hygiene cost of Chinese cities was 2.81 times that of the per capita sanitary expenses of rural areas, and the per capita health expenditure was also more than 2 times that of the rural per capita (the data in this paragraph was quoted from Liu Yiou's comparative research on the investment in urban and rural health resources in my country).It can be said that in the development and development of rural modernization in China, only one public health services are equal, and the annual investment needs to be increased by trillion yuan.
In summary, China will promote the implementation of rural modernization in the next 15 years, and at least it can provide the future development of more than 2 trillion yuan.I'm afraid of implementing it for various reasonsThe completion of the strength will be folded. After calculating it, it can also provide at least 7-8%of the growth of GDP each year.This can be described as the most negative historical opportunities and the best development path for the negative energy of the negative energy of the negative energy of the negative energy of the trade recession of the Sino -U.S.The biggest card is subject to human.
Of course, the vast majority of rural investment in China's rural modern market that more than 2 trillion yuan cannot come from the government's public finances, and it mainly relies on market -oriented capital investment of all parties in the society.What the government needs to do is to eliminate various thresholds set under the policy and regulations of the urban and rural two -level system, so that capital, technology and talents, and various market elements that represent China's advanced productivity can be carried by the market to drive and lure under the market.Starting to build the burden of modernization in China.
At the same time, this does not mean that the government can reduce fees and burdens in the construction of rural modernization.On the contrary, only Chinese governments at all levels in the construction of rural modernization have come up with several times the previous financial resources and manpower, and in the Chinese countryside of China's urbanization, the tide of urbanizationCreate the possibility of China's next modernization.
It should also be pointed out that the increase in public financial investment in the modernization of rural modernization does not mean that it is necessary to simultaneously increase the corresponding financial investment in the Chinese government's total financial plate.By optimizing the structure of fiscal investment to relieve government pressure on public finance.In the inertia thinking of the Chinese government's steady growth, the Tiegong foundation has always been the main theme. Even when the benefits of these infrastructure facilities are negative because of excessive saturation effectiveness, it is not expected to keep growth and guarantee employment.
The construction of rural modernization, the efficient innovation and targeting of the government's input is undoubtedly the opening of the new Golden Avenue.
(The author is a special researcher at the Yangtze River Economic Research Institute, senior media person. This article only represents the author's point of view. Responsible editors: [email protected])
