Xu Jin: When the real economy and the new economy start to turn, then the second half of the Chinese economy is self -evident.If the general trend cannot be changed, what is more important?Grasp the trend of small and medium and strive for second -hand life.

The spring of 2019 is about to pass.The spring of the Chinese economy has just begun.

The data is getting better

Positive signs are reflected in data.From the first quarter of economic data, GDP in the first quarter increased by 6.4%year -on -year.This data is the same as the growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2018.At least it has not deteriorated, and it is considered better than expected.

Not to mention that the performance of the stock market in the first quarter has refreshed the cognition of many people.Under the soaring stock market index, investors are emotional, and brokers have made a lot of money.According to media data, the performance of 27 brokerage firms was better. In March, the total revenue of 25.997 billion yuan, an increase of 47%from the previous month.

The collection of various information is easy to obtain the judgment that is getting better.As a result, the Chinese economy is stabilizing signals and has won a lot of recognition in domestic and international.My colleague, FT's chief economic commentator Martin#12539; After visiting Beijing and Shanghai in March, Wolf saw a lot of optimistic judgments.As a result, he also concluded that the Chinese economy is recovering from slowing down.

The real situation may be more complicated.First of all, judge from the color of the data.Behind the improvement of macro data, infrastructure construction boom is indispensable.Local governments' infrastructure investment continued to increase, with a debt of 1.2 trillion yuan in debt in the first quarter.

In addition, this old friend of real estate is inseparable.Since December 2014, the growth rate of real estate investment has reached a new high.According to official data, from January to March 2019, the national real estate development investment was 2380.3 billion yuan, an increase of 11.8%year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.2 percentage points from January to February.Among them, residential investment was 1725.6 billion yuan, an increase of 17.3%, and the growth rate fell by 0.7 percentage points.Residential investment accounts for 72.5%of real estate development investment.

Secondly, changes in policy direction have also promoted the improvement of market sentiment.On the one hand, the signal of stabilizing private enterprises continued to expand. During the two sessions, about 2 trillion yuan of tax reduction measures were also launched.On the other hand, the recent agreement between the Sino -US trade war has also been reached, and many investors have been eliminated.

Future uncertainty

From a long perspective, the foundation of this round of optimism may not be firm in imagination.The future trend depends on the three questions: Is the investment effectiveness of infrastructure?Can private enterprise investment continue to increase?Can the trade war be fruitful?These three problems have high uncertainty.

The rapid development of China's economy for thirty years is like a truck on a high -speed road.On this way, there are risks such as breach of fires, but they continue to move forward and iterate all the way.Therefore, some people say that this is the toughness of China's economy.

Many people will borrow previous experience and feel that as long as the economy keeps running at high speed, the problem will be solved in development.This experience was established in the past, with historical reasons and the conditions of the times.In the past, the Chinese economy originally started with a piece of white paper and exerted its advantage.Therefore, there are too many places that can be filled. As long as the general direction is correct, you can continue to move forward.Among them, the policy can exert a lot of potential.In other words, the fault tolerance space is large and can withstand toss.

Today's Chinese economy is more powerful, but the situation is different from the past.China is no longer a low -income country, and it is closer to the overseas economic bite.In this case, China is already a rough human car, but a precise car.The more developing, the more embedded in the global economy. Then, in the end, compared with other economies, there are not so many special places, but policies need to be more careful.

The new economy can't move the real economy

The biggest problem now lies in the real economy.

A reader asked me in my public account Xu Jin's economic man that he had done more than ten years of clothing business in a small county coast, and sales have declined a lot since 19 years.He asked many wholesale markets and logistics companies. It felt that it was to grasp environmental protection and poor foreign trade. Many factories have been closed, and work in other places has returned home.The economy is more depressed.At the same time, he saw that the stock market and property market were booming. What was the reason for this?

The reason is simple and simple.The real economy and asset markets are often different.During the economic downturn, the entity does not make money, and the fundamentals of funds are naturally shifted to asset markets with higher return on investment.This situation also appeared in Japan in the 1980s.In the end, what is the result of Japan, you can see it.

Real economic problems are no longer news.Maybe you will ask, what is the new economy?In the past, the new Internet economy was the dream of the next golden age of the Chinese economy.Many people envision to drive the real economy through the new economy.

Then, from LeTV to Xiaohuang, the failure of these innovative models is actually a iconic event for the new economy in China.In the past, the idea of expanding the new track through the new economic model was likely that it was basically over.The rise of China's Internet is essentially more dependent on volume and business models, and incomplete dependence on technological innovation.

At present, several giants have actually split most of the space.Therefore, just like a emerging industry like Panda Live, the company itself has been successful. From 2015, it has been launched in 2019. It has made millions of days in 2019 and tens of millions of flows per month.EssenceIn the end, he had to take the initiative to liquidate and exit the live broadcast platform.

When Internet entrepreneurship enters the second half, it means that the Internet economy is the same as the real economy in the past mdash; mdash; making money, it is not easy.At this time, more operating pressure turned to the interior, but the future growth space was sharply compressed.This time, the programmer riots 996 is not only unreasonable 996 itself.Even more exposed, the company's compensation or price paid for 996 is also shrinking sharply.

The Internet entrepreneurial circle is often popular.That is, pessimists are often correct, and optimists are often successful.Behind this self -motivated words ignores a essential difference, that is, the objective reality will not change or even distort it because of the view of the perspective.More importantly, the successful people we see are actually just a survivor among a large number of losers.In the past, it is often the result of ten miles. In the future, it may go to a hundred miles.

Individual second -hand life

When the real economy and the new economy began to turn, the second half of the Chinese economy was self -evident.When a big trend cannot be changed, it is more important to grasp the individual's small and medium trends.

This sounds like a bit of frustration. In fact, the ending may not be bad for individuals.I often say that groups with unstable bases in the middle class are urban soft classes.For ordinary soft classes, look at the opportunity to change financial freedom and get rich overnight by taking the quality of life in the future.However, you have also reduced the endless anxiety.When your neighbors and friends slow down, you may find that the life of stopping comparison may be slower, but there is nothing bad.

For the soft class, the future life is not just a mdash; mdash; the success probability of this road is decreased, which means that you may need to prepare more tracks.Perhaps it is time to develop horizontal paths, develop personal characteristics, and position second -hand life.

Note: This article represents the author's own point of view. The author is also the founder of the Economy Reading Club. More visible public account Xu Jin's economic man (ID: econhomo).