Hu Yishan: Malaysias supplementary selection win and losses affect the struggle

Regional focus

Malaysia, Morilan Prefecture, held a supplementary election last weekend. As a result, his former state member of the state and the former chairman of the former ruling party, Mohamadha Mountain, won again with the same similar ticket.This is the third winning election after Umno's session of the Golden Marun State Conference, (Selangor) Shi Maoyue State seats, and it is a rainbow.

Especially in recent months, the governing hopes (especially the indigenous unity parties he founded) led by Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir have successively pushed away from UMNO many nationals and state members, causing the witch to fall into a unified fall into the uniformityThe crumbling political dilemma.For those who have a more advanced political thinking in Malaysia, these three re -election results can be said to be their political nightmare hidden in their hearts after the 509 election, which is true to a certain extent.

According to statistics from several aspects, UMNO and another opposition Islamic Party include up to 75%of Malay votes in the 509 election.Understanding under the leadership of former Prime Minister Najib, the original Ruyi political abacus was used to split the Pakatan Harapan votes in order to win the election system of the highest votes in Malaysia.Most of the rural constituencies can win the benefit of fishermen.

Unexpectedly, the results of the election show that the votes split out by the Islamic Party not only the Pakatan Harapan, but include a part of the traditional UMNO votes.At the same time, non -Malay (mainly Chinese and Hindu) fell to the ground to support the Pakatan Harapan.Therefore, despite the support of 75%of Malay voters, the UMNO and the Islamic Party have not been able to win in the 509 election, especially UMNO will hold the Malaysian Federal Regime for more than half a century and give it to the Pakatan Harapan.

After the 509 election, the UMNO and the Islamic Party had a close political relationship before the continuation of the Islamic Party.The two parties cooperated in these several elections, especially the Islamic Party spared no effort to help the candidate for UMNO, and it seems that this also helps UMNO's victory.

In other words, if the Umno and the Islamic Party won the 75%of the Malay votes in the 509 election, and the next election is maintained, the parliamentary seats they will win may be more than half.There is no need to participate in other political parties.

And the Islamic Party, which is UMNO and religious extreme thinking, if the racial superiorism is in the next session of the federal government, the two parties are likely to ignore the reality of the Malaysian multicultural society (because there is no need for non -Malaysian votes to winSelected), and the hard line promoted a political and social agenda of racism and religion, pushing Malaysia to a non -return path similar to Afghanistan or Iran.This is the nightmare that Malaysia has the most scared political thinking in Malaysia; and the results of these re -elections are like gradually becoming their nightmares.

Of course, a big drama staged in the Malaysian politics at the same time is the bright fight between Mahathir and Anwar.The two reported that there was a political agreement before the 509th election (at least tacit), that is, after winning the election, it was in power. Mahathir would transition the prime minister about two years, and then passed the phase to Anwar.

Between Mahathir and Anwar, the water and fires have not been tolerant in the past 20 years (because Mahathir has rushed Anwar to step down and thrown into the prison).The enemy has its own unique political charm.Anwar has been supported by most urban voters, and Mahathir has received the love of many older generations of voters including rural areas. It is expected to win more votes (the 509 election score also proves this).

However, after Mahathir had again blocked the phase, he could not do anything about Anwar's succession. Whenever he was asked, he even cared about him.The Anwar side actively operated, intending to take over soon, including making a supplementary election of the Podshen State Council constituency in the neighboring Yan Dou to make Anwar high votes win.So recently, the re -election of Yan Dou represented the Pakatan Harapan is the candidate of the People's Justice Party led by Anwar, and the hostile candidate is the chairman of the UMNO.Become a test of Anwar's political leadership.

If the Election of Anwar, Anwar can show off the support of his voters from all walks of life, and should take over as soon as possible.If the election is defeated, Anwar’s deputy party and the rumor to be well received by Mahathir, Azmin, who is favored by Mahathir, will also intentionally and unintentionally imply that Anwar is not supported by most voters, but should quantitatively quantitatively.Don't rush to pick up.A candidate for Hindu people who sent the Justice Party may be that Malaysians who account for half of the voters should be voted for UMNO, so I hope other Indians and Chinese will be voted for Pakatan Harapan;Many of non -Malaysian voters work in other places, and they may not come back to vote for a supplementary election.

Coupled with the political cleanliness developed by the members of the Pakatan Harapan for many years, it was not willing to make full use of the governance advantages of announced the local development plan, let alone the buying acts they had criticized for many years. Of courseIt is at a disadvantage.

Mahathir is the highest leader of the Pakatan Harapan, and this re -election opponent is the acting chairman of the UMNO, but he did not help Yan from beginning to end.In short, this supplementary election is not only a fighter between the court and the field, but also a dark fight in the governing alliance.

The next election of the Shanzhang Parliament seat held in East Malaysia, which is also involved in several levels of political struggle.Before the Tuling Party, Dongdu Sabah was of course made the Sabah's local rejuvenation party (the co -government of the Pakatan Harapan in the Federal Union), and the Democratic Action Party and the Justice Party, which had taken root in Sabah for a long time.

Therefore, if the (Sabah) DPP played on behalf of the Pakatan Harapan, of course, it will certainly restore the disadvantages to a certain extent for the three consecutive defeats of the Pakatan Harapan in West Malaysia. On the other hand, it is equivalent to SabahThe local political parties and several political parties who have been working in Sabah indirectly snorted their political partners in the Federal Federation, that is, these political parties in Sabah can also play good election results without intervention or participation in Western Malaysia.EssenceTherefore, the mountains and roots are a election campaign that only won and undefeated.

The author is a senior researcher at the Singapore International Affairs Society (SIIA)