Zheng Yongnian column
First of all, it must be explained to prevent people from misunderstanding the word strategy.What is mentioned here is that China ’s Belt and Road Initiative requires strategic thinking.The Chinese government defines the Belt and Road Initiative as an initiative, not a strategy. This has its own intention.Later, many people discussed at home and abroad have far exceeded the definition of the Chinese government. Most people regard the Belt and Road as a strategy of China.
What is discussed here is that it requires strategic thinking to implement such an initiative.In other words, although the Belt and Road Initament itself is not an exaggerated strategy, it requires strategy to implement the Belt and Road.
The implementation of any large project requires strategy, not to mention cross -regional and intercontinental projects like the Belt and Road.Although China modestly defines this as an initiative, that is, this is an open project, and the role of China is an initiative, but countries can participate in it.However, in terms of implementation, China as an initiative must do more and play a greater role.The same is true at the actual implementation level, so that many people think that China is the only leader of this project and is to realize China's own international intention.The international community, especially the West, is so aware of the Belt and Road Initiative.
Therefore, from the perspective of which perspective, China must think about its strategy to implement the Belt and Road.If there is a problem, the sustainability of the project itself is the result that the international community is not expected.
It has been six years since the Belt and Road Initiative has been launched.At least in terms of discourse, the effect of the Belt and Road Initiative is huge.This concept is not only widely spread, but it has also become a topic or core concept of diplomacy today.But with the spread of concepts, people's understanding of this is not more clear, but it is even more unclear.
In the early days, people more mechanically understood this concept and literally understood the concept, which countries and regions of the Belt and Road that China planned?But by now, this understanding is not so useful.On the one hand, it seems that everything China has done is defined as the Belt and Road Initiative or hanging hooks with the Belt and Road.On the other hand, because the Belt and Road Initiative is open, more and more countries and regions have been classified into the category of the Belt and Road.However, if the category is too large, the original meaning will be lost.
Issues concerned by the international community
At the international level, there are many issues that people have concerned about the Belt and Road, but there are two main concerns to summarize.As far as the United States and some Western powers that dominate the international order are now, what are their concerns about the motivation mechanism and intention of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative?Is it like the imperialist expansionism or colonialism that Western countries have practiced before?Or is it a new version ofism?Will China rule the world through the Belt and Road?Is China dissatisfied with the status quo of international order, to reshape the world and regional order through the Belt and Road Initiative?Or China wants to amend this order (that is, the amendmentism in the West)?Or just as China itself says that China does not challenge the order established by the West, but to provide international public products, and at most to supplement it on the basis of Western order?
On the other hand, as far as the majority of developing countries are concerned, they are concerned about the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the development of their own country, not so concerned about the international system level.Considering that at least now, most countries along the Belt and Road Coast are developing countries. Many are still backward countries. They need to develop, and they have no right to speak in the international community.understand.In fact, as far as many countries are concerned, they have given them a chance to re -select or adjust the development model.Since World War II, most countries have followed the Western model, but they have not succeeded. So many years have passed, and they are still poverty.
In view of the successful experience after China's reform and opening up, they are interested in China's development model.They are particularly interested in investing in infrastructure that the Belt and Road Initiative of China, because backward infrastructure has always been a major obstacle to the economic development of these countries.However, this is not to say that these countries have no doubt about the Belt and Road Initiative.In terms of conceptual or practical level, some countries have doubts.For example, they are also concerned, will China become another Western imperialist or colonialist?China has given them unconditional investment, but can they bear debt to China?What kind of actions will China take for them if they cannot be repaid as scheduled?China participates in their development through the Belt and Road Initiative, but can China continue?What's more, will China also try to affect their internal affairs by participating in their development?
In fact, these problems such as these development China often are often enlarged and exaggerated because of various factors (opposition party, social groups, Western forces, etc.), and have extremely negative impacts on China's local projects.Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Malaysia are typical, and Pakistan (India -Pakistan Economic Corridor) is also largely facing similar problems.
In any case, all countries are not just border countries along the Belt and Road, but also other countries that are not so related. They are actively calculating and evaluating the benefits and risks that the Belt and Road can bring to themselves?What about China as a founding country?If the interests and risks of the Belt and Road Initiative are only conceptual, so many years, the current evaluation has rich experience materials.
What benefits can the Belt and Road bring to China?How much benefit?What are the risks of China at different levels (domestic, regional and international)?How to avoid and control risks?What kind of alternative ways do you need when a way is no longer feasible because of changes in the situation?To put it simply, how to define the Belt and Road to today?What does China do?How to do it?In fact, many people are not clear about these issues.That is to say, China needs to do new strategic thinking on the Belt and Road.
China's interests and risks in the Belt and Road Initiative
How to evaluate China's own interests and risks in the Belt and Road?In fact, internally, it is to achieve sustainable development; in terms of external concerns, it is to achieve national security.From the perspective of these two perspectives, people need to consider at least the following issues.
First, the balance of the development of the two aspects of domestic and international.The first goal of the Belt and Road is to achieve sustainable development in China, rather than the expansion of the outside world.Capital, production capacity and technology go out for internal development.Therefore, the Belt and Road Initiative does not affect the principle of sustainable development.Furthermore, once the internal development is negatively affected, the external development will have no foundation, and it becomes more unsustainable.This is also worried about some people in China.In history, China has such a tradition.The tribute system is an example.In other countries, the emperor of China opened a head to China, and China opened trade to these countries, and China itself never asked other countries to open to China.This asymmetric opening makes the tribute system often a burden on China.
Although Mao Zedong's foreign aid was serving the survival diplomatic at the time, it was also at the expense of internal interests.The national leading out of the country should pay special attention to the sustainability of its economic capabilities.Some people start to worry that the Belt and Road Initiative will become another Zhenghe project.Point.Zheng He went to the West seven times, which fully represented the national capabilities of the Ming Dynasty at that time, but then stopped because of internal factors.
Second, the area of strategy and civilization that is likely to bring in the western border of China.The relationship between China and Russia, Central Asian countries, and the Middle East.For thousands of years, these areas are the most complicated places in the geopolitical environment.Because of this, the Great Wall appears.To this day, people may have to rethink the value of Great Wall culture.Different religions, different civilizations, different lifestyles, Islamic extremism, and complicated relationships with large and small countries, all factors that can lead to international and domestic conflicts are reflected in the area in one area.And these will immediately reflect the problems of China and evolve into China itself.
In recent years, although the West has accused China of curbing Muslim culture, in the context of globalization, Muslim culture in western China has actually developed greatly.In addition, the rapid decrease in the population of the Han people, the unreasonable preferential policies of the ethnic minorities, the local governments dare not handle because of the fear of the nation and religious issues, etc., making these places increasingly irresistible.At the same time, once China wants to make a difference and solve the problem in its own way, it will immediately lead to great international pressure.It is foreseeable that the Belt and Road Initiative cannot not affect all these factors.If the Belt and Road Initiative can curb these factors, it may help governance; but if these factors are liberated, the vast western region will become irresistible.
Third, China is both a land country and a marine country. It is necessary to consider how to maintain a balance between land and maritime interests.Traditionally, since the Ming and Qing Dynasties, China's land culture has defeated its own marine culture, making China give up the opportunity to become a marine country.Today, when people's focus is transferred to marine countries, how to deal with land and ocean requires a lot of consideration.Experienced, when people encounter difficulties in the ocean, they can easily turn to the land, which is a culture of culture.From the perspective of economic interests, the ocean is obviously far more important than land.China today is the world's largest trading country, and more than 80%of trade needs to pass through the South China Sea.In other words, China is at least economical. It is already a marine country.But how to deal with the ocean -related issues?In this regard, we need to do serious strategic considerations.
Over the years, it has faced important challenges in the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, South China Sea, and Indian Ocean.It is difficult to solve these problems without developing the spirit of the ocean.Today, because of the Belt and Road Initiative, these issues have become realistic, because after all, how to say, all the way is the 21st century Maritime Silk Road.
Fourth, it is not only to the ocean, but also re -evaluate the geopolitical value of the ocean.Any country, unless it is to build an empire, whether it is land geography or maritime geography, its importance is no longer the same as before.Today, in addition to traditional technology manufacturing, finance and the Internet, it has become the subject of economic.If you use the concept of traditional geopolitics, people can say who can control the world who controls these two related fields.The United States is reducing investment in traditional geography in various ways and turning to finance and the Internet.Therefore, if you want to arrange a priority, the financial Internet is the first, the marine second, and the land again.
Regarding the geography of land, the West and the United States have always been criticized, opposed, and even obstructed to China, but they will not invest too much, because they have no great economic motivation for the land economy.For the ocean, the United States will have considerable investment to maintain its maritime hegemony. There are both large economic motivations and security considerations centered on the United States.The United States has the largest investment in finance and the Internet.If the United States' interests on land are not large, it is still an unprecedented hegemony in the ocean. Although the United States has maintained ahead on the financial and Internet, it also feels pressure from China.This time, in the Sino -US trade war, the United States tried hard to suppress China's knowledge economy and technology.
If in the process of building, adjustment, and implementation, the factors that can be considered in such factors can not only soberly recognize the benefits and risks that the Belt and Road, and the role of the Belt and Road Internal and Outside China.There is an objective understanding.
The author is the director of the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore
The article only represents personal point of view
