Qi Dongtao
In recent years, there have been many contradictions and conflicts between China and increasingly vigilant United States.From the perspective of the rise strategy, this is because when China's rise strategy gradually became clear from fuzzy, the United States also responded to China's rise with clearer strategies.
In the past, China has long pursued the strategy of hiding and obscure, maintaining a strategic blur on some major issues involving the United States. The United States has also maintained its strategic blurring in China. The strategy of both sides is blurred, so that the potential contradictions and conflicts have not floated to the top, forming a relatively stable situation.As China has gradually moved from the tightness to the strategy, China has gradually become strategic on many issues, and the United States is up to the later.turmoil.
Last year, the rapid changes in the experience of the three sides of the Sino -US and Taiwan -Taiwan -Taiwan sides fully demonstrated the new challenges and new wrestling formed by the three parties from a strategic vague to strategic transition period, which is worthy of our high attention.
This article will simply sort out this transition of the three parties, trying to explain to the readers: After the three parties go through some wrestling, it should form a new strategic vague balance point.Because history tells us that on some major controversial issues, strategic blurring can allow all parties to seek common ground while surviving, maintaining the stability and development of relationships, and strategic clearness often cause conflicts to intensify and even lead to war.
Mainland China initially had a very clear strategy for the solution of the Taiwan issue, which was to liberate Taiwan forces.However, after the military offense, especially after the United States' intervention, Mainland China had to change to a peaceful and unified strategy.The unity of peace has long been in a state of fuzzy state, because the most important question is that when the unification of Taiwan is not concluded.It is said that Mao Zedong had publicly said: Taiwan's issue may not be resolved after 100 years.This 100 -year concept is a kind of virtual finger commonly used by Chinese people. It means that after a long time, it is not necessarily the 100th anniversary of the founding of the country, that is, 2049.As a result, there is no time limit for peace and unity, and gradually becomes peaceful and unified, which greatly reduces the pressure on Taiwan and the United States, and also gives mainland China a long enough time to gradually create conditions for peace and unity.
In addition, unification is the question of how high the importance of the mainland is also a question that has no clear answer.Since the reform and opening up, it is clear that economic development has always been the most important thing in the mainland government. Taiwan's issue is not only a secondary issue, but also Taiwan's funds, technology, and personnel have been an important force to promote the economic development of the mainland. The mainlandWill not sacrifice your economic development for unification.In the end, the mainland has never given up the options that unify Taiwan in some cases in some cases, but whether the military forces in the mainland can overcome Taiwan, especially in the case of US military intervention, this is a question that has not been clearly answered for a long time.It has become part of the mainland's strategy to Taiwan.
Strategic vagueness reduces the pressure of Taiwan's issue on the three parties of China, the United States and Taiwan.In this state of fuzzy, the mainland combined with its own economic development needs, and the strategy of promoting Taiwan to Taiwan is indirectly siege. The focus is on promoting Taiwan's investment and trade with the mainland. By deepening Taiwan's economic dependence on the mainland's economic dependence on the mainland, Taiwan's economic dependence on the mainland has relying on the mainland's economic dependence on the mainland.To weaken its independent tendency and ability.Direct ways to promote unity, such as political negotiations, have not been promoted.Even the curbing of Taiwan's independence forces has always been passive. It is often when major Taiwan independence incidents occur, and even military exercises and other methods, and even warn Taiwan with the United States to warn Taiwan.
It must be specifically mentioned that in 2005, the anti -split national law passed by the mainland can be regarded as a strategic clear line to the Chen Shui -bian government that was promoting various Taiwan independence activities at the time, which played a warning role of a bright sword.
After the mainland entered the new era, the strategy of Taiwan has gradually become clear.The first is to use the unified Taiwan as part of the national rejuvenation. The 1049th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China naturally became the last period of reunification, and it was just in line with Mao Zedong's 100 years of the year.Of course, many people feel that unification may come early, because mainland leaders have repeatedly emphasized in recent years: unified problems cannot be dragged down from generation to generation, and it seems that unification should be achieved among his generation leaders.
The duration of the unified period is gradually becoming clear, which means that the importance of unity for mainland leaders is gradually increasing, otherwise it will not guarantee that unification is realized as scheduled.On the other hand, China's military construction has always been centered on solving the Taiwan issue. Therefore, China's military power, especially the navy and the Air Force power, has also sent a clearer signal to all walks of life in recent years.Feel the determination, confidence, and ability of the mainland to solve the problem of Taiwan.
The natural consequences of the strategic clearness in the mainland are that the mainland becomes more urgent from top to bottom.This urgent mood is first reflected in the blow of Taiwan independence: the mainland government is taking the initiative to attack, by winning Taiwan's establishment of diplomatic relations and preventing Taiwan from participating in some important international organizations to limit Taiwan's international space, foreign companies that require business in China to business in ChinaIt is correctly identified that Taiwan belongs to China, and the military aircraft flying around Taiwan has become the norm, and aircraft carriers have repeatedly passed the Taiwan Strait, etc., while the people of the mainland have become more sensitive to Taiwanese artists and businessmen working in land.wait.
In terms of promoting unification, the speech at the 40th anniversary of the Taiwan compatriots in January in January, which can be regarded as a declaration of promotion of the new era, not only conveyed unified determination and confidence to all walks of life, but also more importantlyIt is recommended that a series of specific methods.For example, clarifying that the 1992 consensus is not only a consensus of China, but also the joint efforts of the two sides of the strait to seek the unified consensus of the country, and remind the next Taiwanese leaders one year in advance to avoid the responsibility of promoting the promotion;Promote the peaceful development of cross -strait relations to achieve institutional arrangements.In the context of the gradually clear strategy, the strategy of promoting Taiwan in Taiwan has gradually gradually attracted Taiwan's investment and trade, turning to attracting more Taiwanese talents to take root in the mainland.
Taiwan is between China and the United States. If possible, strategy blur is the best choice.The Chen Shui -bian government tried to promote the independence of Taiwan's legal independence in a strategic stance, but was co -controlled by China and the United States. As a result, the DPP was eight years after the steps stepped down.The 1992 consensus admitted after Ma Ying -jeou came to power was actually a product of blurred strategy, because the Kuomintang's 1992 consensus emphasized the Chinese Mainland one, but the internal and inside of Taiwan emphasized the tables.If you can be accepted by the mainland, you can maintain the stability of cross -strait relations.
Tsai Ing -wen actually wants to maintain this blurred position.For example, before she came to power, she promised to accept and would be committed to maintaining the current status of cross -strait relations. After the stage, she promised to follow the regulations on the Constitution and Cross -Strait Relations of the Republic of China (all formulated in a Chinese principle, although this China refers to China refers to ChinaThe Republic of China), and repeatedly guarantee that it will not collide with the bottom line of cross -strait relations like Chen Shuibian, and so on.It is just that she does not clearly accept a principle that the mainland does not allow fuzzy: a Chinese principle, which makes the official relationship between cross -strait official frozen.
After the local election in Taiwan in 2018, the DPP gradually abandoned its strategic vague position due to a defeat, cooperating with the United States to curb the Chinese strategy, and speculating on the Chinese threat theory on the island.Raising the relationship with the United States quickly hopes that in the presidential legislators election in January 2020 to win the election.Therefore, the Democratic Progressive Party not only expresses the island, but also makes a statement on various occasions in the United States. Thanks to the United States for their support for Taiwan and supporting the United States to curb China's strategic plan.
The author is the National University of Singapore
Researcher of East Asia Research Institute
In the past, China has long pursued the strategy of hiding and obscure, maintaining a strategic blur on some major issues involving the United States. The United States has also maintained its strategic blurring in China. The strategy of both sides is blurred, so that the potential contradictions and conflicts have not floated to the top, forming a relatively stable situation.As China has gradually moved from the tightness to the strategy, China has gradually become strategic on many issues, and the United States is up to the later.turmoil.
