A week review
Due to the outbreak of African swine fever and the rising influence of vegetable prices, the price of food prices rose, and the consumer price index (CPI) of Chinese residents rose by 2.3%in March after the 1.5%increase in February.This is the first time that CPI has returned above 2%in four months, and it has hit a five -month high.
In March, the increase in the factory price index (PPI) of the industrial producer increased to 0.4%, an increase of the year -on -year increase from the previous month, and hit a three -month high.
In addition, China ’s exports in March, which are calculated in the US dollar, increased by 14.2%year -on -year; the official manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI) in China announced last Sunday rose to 50.5.
More and closer to reaching an agreement
On the other hand, although the United States has reported that the Chinese side has rejected the United States demand to further open the corn, rice and wheat markets to expand the degree of import freedom and block the progress of the negotiations, overall, the negotiations on the negotiating table on the negotiation table are progressing smoothly.
Xinhua News Agency reported on Saturday that in the ninth round of Sino -US economic and trade high -level consultations held in Washington from April 3rd to 5th local time, the two parties discussed technical transfer, intellectual property protection, non -tariff measures, service industries, agriculture,,, agriculture,,, agriculture,,, agriculture,,,, agriculture, agriculture,,, agriculture,,,, agriculture,,Agreement such as trade balance and implementation mechanism and new progress have been made.
The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce of China also revealed at a routine press conference on the 11th that after the latest round of Sino -US economic and trade high -level consultations, the two parties have led the call to discuss the leftover issues.In the next step, the economic and trade teams of the two parties will maintain close communication through various effective ways, go all out to continue to negotiate carefully, and strive to work in the direction of implementing the consensus of the two countries.
In addition, US Treasury Secretary Nuchin said on Wednesday that the US -China trade negotiations have continued to make progress. The two parties have basically determined that a mechanism has been determined to supervise the implementation of any agreement reached in the future, including the newly established execution office.
U.S. President Trump said in a speech on Friday that the recent round of negotiations was a huge success; before meeting Liu He in the oval office on Thursday, he also stated that the United States and China had been close to the agreement and may be in the Agreement and may be in the United States and China.It will be announced in the next to six weeks.
Looking at the remarks between China and the United States, China and the United States are getting closer to the trade agreement.Li Yisheng, a co -CEO of the Core Investment Group, predicts that this week's interview with Bloomberg TV in Abu Dhabi predicts that China and the United States will not sign a trade agreement later this summer.
Li Yisheng said that Washington and Beijing will continue to negotiate after signing a trade agreement, especially on issues such as intellectual property rights.
With the cooling of the Sino -US trade war, coupled with the above -mentioned baked economic indicators in March, it provides support for international observer to optimize the Chinese economy.In April, many international organizations and world -renowned financial institutions raised China's economic growth expectations.In the latest World Economic Outlook Report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced the expectations of global economic growth in 2019 to 3.3%, and at the same time, China's economic growth rate was expected to increase from 6.2%to 6.3%this year.Among major global economies, only China's economic growth is expected to be raised this year.
In short, the Chinese economy has seen the trend of rainbow after the storm.However, the market is therefore concerned that the People's Bank of China will have a short -term contraction of its supporting loose monetary policy in the near future.
In this regard, many analysts have consistent views: The Bank of China policy is unlikely to be subject to the recent trend of Chinese inflation data.The People's Bank of China also needs to maintain supportive monetary policy.
Bloomberg economist Qu Tianshi and Wanqian wrote that China ’s CPI rising to more than 2%is unlikely to disturb the central bank and will not tighten its supporting monetary policy position, because the rising CPI in March is mainly due to vegetables.Price increased by 16.2%year -on -year, while PPI's rebound was mainly caused by the price rebound of commodities.From a wider perspective, PPI is still much lower than the average level of 4.4%since 2017, just to temporarily pull back the manufacturing industry from the slowdown of inflation.
They believe that CPI may still be strong compared to PPI, but now it is expected that the overall inflation level is expected to rise.
In the second quarter or monetary policy adjustment window
The analysis report of HSBC Holdings also believes that China's CPI and PPI data in March rose in market expectations.Earlier, analysts have noticed that the price of Chinese pork has been slaughtered due to the slaughter of millions of pigs in African swine fever, and the supply has decreased significantly, and oil prices have also risen in March, promoting the price rose in March.However, it is not to be ignored that the overall food price of China is still at a low level, which means that there is still room for suppressing the increase in overall food prices, and the overall demand in March is also due to the recovery stage because the Chinese economy is still in the recovery.The support has not yet reached the degree of accelerated price rise.
Some analysts believe that the People's Bank of China will further reduce its standards to reduce the financing cost of enterprises.The analysis report of the Bank of China expects that the Bank of China will be reduced twice this year after the RMB 100 of this year's RMB 100 in January this year, one of which is in the second quarter of this year.
In addition, Liu Min, an analyst at FXTM Fulto Chinese market, believes that China will further implement some policies to promote consumption.For example, the key task of the 2019 new urbanization construction issued by the China Development and Reform Commission this week is another policy guideline that the Chinese government conducts structural adjustments and drives domestic demand.
The above documents require large cities with a resident population of 1 million to 3 million in urban areas to fully cancel the restrictions on settlement; large cities with 3 million to 5 million in urban areas must fully let go of the settlement conditions and comprehensively cancel the restrictions on the settlement of key groups.
In 2016, China released a plan to promote 100 million non -household registration population in the city. It is hoped that the urbanization rate of the household registration population in the 13th Five -Year Plan period (2016 to 2020) has increased by more than 1 percentage point annually, with an average annual transfer of more than 13 million people;In 2020, the urbanization rate of household registration in the country increased by 45%.Household registration reform will accelerate China's transformation to consumer -led economy and help equalize urban and rural income.
As for when the People's Bank of China adjusts the annual strategy?Some analysts believe that although everyone has suddenly been particularly optimistic about the Chinese economy in the past half a month, the central bank and the government are still observing, and at least for at least several months. After the economic data in the second quarter of this year, if necessary, if necessary, if necessary, if necessary,, It may be an adjustment window.
