Source: Beijing Daily
More than half a year ago, Haihe Ying, who Beijing office workers attracted talents because of their low thresholds, planned to settle in Tianjin.His life did not change too much: He and his wife still rented houses in Huilongguan area, and squeezed the subway early in the morning to work in Zhongguancun.However, he bought a house in Tianjin soon.
Like him, the person who lined up all night became a buyer in the market in Tianjin, and once brought a fire in the local property market.
Some people in the Tianjin story are before, and more people are concerned about the recent policy of relaxing or canceling the restrictions on settlement in large cities: the restrictions on settlement have been canceled, and talents have come in. Will the hungry property market be stared at by hot money?Is it a talent or a speculative tenant who was introduced into the city?
Talent settled short -term driving house purchase demand
Ge Jing's real estate bought in Tianjin was quickly rented out to subsidize the rent in Beijing.Even if I am a talent?He was also a little stubborn.
It is helpless to make such a choice.He works in a good high -tech company in Beijing, with good income and good prospects.However, the strict settlement restrictions and rising house prices in first -tier cities have made him have to turn his eyes to the surrounding second- and third -tier cities.Tianjin's education resources are good. Even if they cannot settle in Beijing, they are stronger than returning to his hometown in Hebei.He told the truth that he didn't do this for himself, but for the future child.
The Tianjin property market followed.Data from Zhuge's house finding a house show that Tianjin, which had only a few thousand new houses per month, has soared to more than 9,000 sets in May 2018 when the policy was released.Essence
According to the key tasks of new urbanization construction in 2019 recently issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, type II cities with a permanent population of 1 million to 3 million in urban areas must fully cancel the residence restrictions;Open the wide settlement conditions and fully cancel the restrictions on the settlement of key groups.This also means that more cities nationwide may follow Tianjin.
To relax the household registration system to a certain extent, it breaks the threshold for purchase restrictions, which means that more people can enter the real estate market and have a impact on some cities with insufficient housing housing.Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute.In the context of the loose settlement policy, in recent years, some second -tier cities have introduced talent introduction policies, which has attracted a certain demand for house purchase in the short term.In addition to Tianjin, after the implementation of the talent settlement policy, Xi'an has increased significantly, the real estate market has improved significantly, and housing prices have risen rapidly.
Talent introduction of the new policy stimulus effect
The settlement of settlement means that people can come in, and people will inevitably bring the demand for house purchase MDash; MDASH; at the moment, the real estate market is hungry and thirsty. As soon as the heavy policies come out, developers who have always been sensitive will smell a new vitality.
We also know that the policy is for urban development, but we still see that the policy is possibly pushed to promote the real estate market.A well -known real estate sales of Shijiazhuang told reporters.A month ago, Shijiazhuang issued a zero -threshold settlement policy.Shijiazhuang's move is also interpreted as regulatory loosening.Data released by the World Union showed that in early 2019, Shijiazhuang's overall sales area of about 6.2 million square meters, de -inventory pressure.
From the perspective of the industry, such policies will also have a more obvious guiding role in the development of urban agglomerations, especially affecting Chengdu -Chongqing, Harbin Chang, the Yangtze River Central reaches, Beibu Gulf, Central Plains, Guanzhong Plain, Lanzhou Xining, Hulbao Eyu and other cities such as cities and other cities.Group planning intensity.Yan Yuejin, the research director of the Yiju Research Institute, said that from the perspective of subsequent growth, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the Guanzhong Plain or the areas that can be paid attention to.In other words, these are expected to become the area where housing companies will focus on march in the future.
How to balance the level of real estate development and the level of urbanization, talent needs and stabilization of the property market test the managers of different cities.
It will bring benefits to second -tier cities with good fundamentals.Xu Xiaole believes that for some cities with the time of paying a housing social security, the demand for house purchase may increase in the short term; and cities with poor economic fundamentals and lack of population attractive population may have a relatively weak impact.Large cities with a permanent population of 3 million to 5 million will relax the settlement conditions and comprehensively cancel the new policies restricted by key groups.Low, population introduction dividends have been consumed in 2018.
In addition, for large cities and mega cities, although the scale of settlement is required, it will still be difficult to settle in Beijing and Shanghai, and it is difficult to release demand in the short term.In Shenzhen, Nanjing, Wuhan and other cities, there is still room for flowing into the population. In the long run, it will be favorable for its real estate market.Xu Xiaole said.
Relaxation of household registration must be taken to prevent the opportunity to speculate
Statistics from Central Plains Real Estate show that as of now, there have been more than 50 cities that have been introduced and settled in various talents in 2019.
From the perspective of strength and quantity, the historical record has been refreshed.Especially in second- and third -tier cities, policies such as talent settlement and subsidy house purchase have been released.Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Central Plains Real Estate, said that these cities have attracted many home buyers, and may even occur in the possibility of speculators who use talent policy to purchase houses.
The property market fluctuated by people was quickly regulated.Taking Tianjin as an example, Haihe Yingcai's plan to be disclosed for less than a month. Tianjin issued a notice on further doing a good job of regulating the real estate market in our city to strengthen the regulation of the real estate market.
With the lessons of the car, the city that will enjoy the dividend of the settlement policy in the future should be prepared to deal with the impact of the property market.Xu Xiaole said that when liberalizing the restrictions on the household registration, the supply of housing construction land should also be appropriately increased to implement human land hooks to avoid the expansion of the contradiction between supply and demand; continue to do a good job of the real estate market control, prevent the opportunity to speculate, and cause short -term market fluctuations.
At the same time, this policy release also clarifies the concept of the resident population of rental houses in the urban public account, and even mentioned the concept of compacting the main responsibility of the local government.Yan Yuejin said that in the future, there may be more policy encouragement content in the leased housing and settlement to facilitate the guarantee of the rights and interests of leasing users.
The role of talents in cities should be to drive industrial development, not to heat the real estate industry.The talent policy cannot be a window for real estate regulation. The purchase is limited to the door to investing in real estate speculation. Too loose talent introduction policies will be expanded to expand the purchase window.Zhang Dawei said.
