Shen Jianguang: The momentum of China's economic recovery looks good.However, considering that some structural problems still exist, there are still four major challenges worthy of attention.
Since March, the Chinese economy has changed positive, and the initial results of the policy of adjusting the period of counter -cyclical adjustment, and the economy seems to have stabilized and recovering.In the context of the active efforts of multiple policies and the slow release of the Sino -US trade war, the March manufacturing PMI over -expected rebound 1.3 percentage points to 50.5%, a new high in the past 6 months;High -frequency indicators also pointed to March economic data to warm up from the previous month.The performance of A shares after the Spring Festival is even more global.Looking forward to the future, with the adverse period regulation policy such as value -added tax reduction and shortcomings such as value -added tax reduction and shortcomings such as infrastructure supplementary boards entered a period of centralized efforts, China's economic recovery momentum looks good.It is also necessary to soberly recognize the complex environment facing the current Chinese economy.Considering that some structural problems still exist, the momentum of China's economic fundamentals has not yet been completely stable, there are still four major challenges worthy of attention:
Reliating inflation pressure restricts policy relaxation
With the recovery of pork prices since March and the exacerbation of African swine fever, the pig cycle was restarted. In addition, the international oil prices rose significantly in the previous period. In the short term, China's inflation pressure rose again.Almost every round of pork prices in history will drive inflation up. Food split items in China's CPI sub -items fluctuate greater than non -food, leading the trend of CPI; of which pork prices have largely dominated the trend of food split items, and thus have become become it, so it has also become become the trendImportant factor affecting CPI.
In the author's opinion, in the short term, domestic inflation or rising pressure, especially in the context of high -end factor factors in the second quarter, CPI may usher in an upward trend, with more than 3%in individual months.According to the author's calculations, CPI will rise to about 2.5-2.6%year-on-year in March and April, and the pressure in June will be greater, which may exceed 3%.Once the inflation level approaches or exceeds the government's 3%set of targets in the short term, it may cause restrictions on monetary policy.
At the same time, the recovery of the real estate market in some cities in the near future has been concerned about rising asset prices, and the possibility of continued relaxation of monetary policy has also decreased significantly.Of course, this does not mean that the monetary policy needs to be shifted. In the context of economic decline, the overall maintenance of counter -cyclical regulation is still the main tone, but the space that further relax in the short term will be limited.
Global economic fatigue export prospects
Exporting this year may face the challenges of global weak economic weaknesses, and it will be dragged on economic growth.Although the Sino -US trade has made many important progress after the Nine -round negotiations, and it is expected to reach an agreement in the end, the gradual fading of the export effect since the March of the trade war last year made it difficult for China to significantly improve the export of the United States in the short term.In the first two months of this year, trade data was not optimistic, and the export of US dollars fell 4.6%. Among them, China ’s cumulative exports to the United States plummeted by 14.1%, becoming the main dragging.Looking forward to the year, major global economies have entered a downward channel, external demand is weak, and the prospects for foreign trade throughout the year are still worried.
For example, after the U.S. economy exceeded 4%after the US economy's GDP in the second quarter of 2018, it was already in a downward channel, and economic growth slowed a quarterly trend.The four quarters of 2018 increased by 2.2%, 4.2%, 3.4%, and 2.2%, respectively.In addition, the yields of Treasury bonds last month and the ten -year Treasury bonds were first inverted for the first time in 12 years. From a historical point of view, this indicator closely connected with the US economic recession has a strong warning effect and is worrying.Fortunately, the Federal Reserve has also withdrawn from the interest rate hike cycle last month. At the same time, the economic growth rate in 2019 was reduced to 2.1%, and the 2020 was reduced to 1.9%.The division is increasing, and the government has stopped for a long time. It is expected that the US economy will face downward pressure in 2019.
At the same time, the growth of major European economies in the second half of 2018 was greatly lower than expected. The German economy stumbled in the locomotive, and the French recovery power that was deeply trapped in the yellow vest was seriously insufficient.All British indicators are also declining.The European Central Bank has greatly reduced the 2019 GDP growth forecast from 1.7%in December last year to 1.1%.In addition, European political risks cannot be underestimated. The problem of Brexit issues is unreasonable, populism spreads in many countries and adds new variables to the European economy.The EU and the United States, as the top two imported countries in China, will make significant restrictions on China's exports once weakened.
The policy of warming up the real estate market
Real estate trends have always been the key to affecting China's economic operation.In March, under the background of the early mortgage loan interest rate and some administrative restrictions, domestic real estate sales data appeared in a recovery trend.In March 30, the sales area of real estate sales in large and medium -sized cities rebounded sharply to 20.4%year -on -year.In the context of loose capital, the average interest rate of the first home loan in the country in February was 5.63%, a decrease of 0.53%month -on -month, and fell for 3 consecutive months.In addition, from January to February 2019, the growth rate of the newly started area of housing rose to 6.8%. This data was only 1.9%, 1.8%, and 1.7%in 2016-2018, respectively.
In the past 20 years, China's real estate cycle has always been closely related to the economic cycle. Is the current recovery of the real estate market a new round of housing prices rising?Looking forward to the future, real estate policies still have significant impact on economic operations.In my opinion, although the current real estate market has improved, it is mainly due to the marginal adjustment of one -size -fits knife to cut real estate emergency brake regulation to suppress the real estate bubble, while the policy is too severe and some rigid demand has also been suppressed.From this perspective, in the future, the urban policy will be the main line of real estate regulation.At the same time, the policies of quot; housing do not fry the quot; in order to prevent the real estate national bull market in the context of the relatively loose background of the currency environment, accelerate the launch of the long -term real estate mechanism, especially in the background of tax reduction and fee reduction and fee reduction.In the following, the timely implementation of the real estate tax will not only help alleviate the increase in short -term fiscal pressure, but also does not increase the question of increased overall tax burden. It is also an important part of promoting the reform of fiscal and taxation. It is still a high probability event for launching this two years.
Infrastructure stable growth still needs to prevent debt risk
Since October last year, in the face of the downward pressure on the economy, China's decision -making level has quickly regained the role of infrastructure in the economy, and proposed many supporting policies and measures such as infrastructure supplementary shortcomings. As of now, the effectiveness of the policy force has appeared.It can be observed that since the beginning of the year, infrastructure investment has shown a significant acceleration in many aspects such as project approval, construction, investment and financing.As of now, the scale of infrastructure investment approval of the Development and Reform Commission has reached almost the same period in 2017, and the cumulative growth rates in January and February reached 78.5%and 74.5%, respectively.The investment growth of the field is obvious; the volume issuance of special debt, the excavator and the production and sales data of the heavy truck industry show signs of recovery, etc., all suggest that infrastructure investment will continue to rebound under the policy blessing.
In my opinion, although the current shortcomings of infrastructure supplementation are still within a reasonable range, the prospects will still face large sources of funds throughout the year. Under the budget constraints, we need to be alert to local government debt risks.Especially since the financial crisis, a certain periodic characteristics have shown a stable growth of infrastructure infrastructure and local government debt. Among them, in the period of large economic downlink pressure, in order to stimulate the economy in order to force infrastructure, local government debt management and control often relax and cause the debt rapidly.Expansion, this is the case in the past few rounds.This round of fiscal policy focuses on tax reduction and fees, and at the same time take into account the shortcomings of infrastructure supplements. In this case, the pressure on the fiscal deficit of the local government will be highlighted. Whether China can get out of the past local government debt cycles remains to be observed.
In summary, the author believes that when multiple factors have changed well in the near future, and the policy of active policies has begun to achieve results, the Chinese economy has initially showed a stable recovery trend.However, it must be seen that the fundamentals of China's economic fundamentals have not been completely stable. The short -term inflation pressure under the start of the pig cycle, the pressure of export pressure in the global economy, the concerns of the real estate price rising, and the debt of the local governments in the infrastructure under the infrastructure supporting economic underlying economy under the economy of the economy under the economy of infrastructure under the economy of infrastructure supportRisks still need to pay attention and vigilance.Therefore, when the Chinese economy has come to the bottom, it has risenWhether the future rebound is stable, policy choice is still particularly critical.In the author's opinion, consolidating the foundation for the good economy, relying on the limited effect of short -term stimulus policies, how to promote tax reduction and landing in the future, how to promote the construction of new urbanization, whether the reform of the fiscal and taxation system can break, and a new round of bonus for opening up to the outside world.How to release, these deeper institutional changes are the key to determining whether China can recover.
Note: This article only represents the author's personal point of view.Editor of this article Xu Jin [email protected]
