Taiwanese scholars: The most dangerous situation on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait

/> Su Qi, chairman of the Taipei Forum Foundation and former Secretary -General of the National Security Council, believes that the most dangerous situation on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait next year's election next year (file photo)

Su Qi, chairman of the Taipei Forum Foundation and former Secretary -General of the National Security Council, expressed his concerns about the situation on both sides of the strait in the Seminar of the Strategic Bureau of the United States and China held in Taipei today (8th).He pointed out that the current situation on both sides of the strait is very similar to the eve of World War I. The hostile cognition of all parties is very strong, but they are unwilling, do not think that they will fight, and think that even if the war is started, self -confidence will win. At the same time, the parties will definitely win. At the same timeThere is also a lack of management mechanisms.

According to Taiwan media such as Lianhe News Network and ETTODAY News Cloud, Su Qi believes that there is no communication dialogue between the three parties between the United States and China.He pointed out that there is only trade negotiation between the United States and the mainland, and there is no strategic dialogue; Taiwan has no communication and dialogue with the mainland. Only Taiwan talks with the United States. Therefore, the relationship between the three parties is very unstable.

Suqi predicts that on the eve of the presidential election of Taiwan next year, the two sides of the strait will be particularly dangerous. If the results of the election are the DPP continues to govern, the two sides of the strait may gradually move towards a showdown.

Su Qi took the 2008 election as an example that at that time, the outside world was basically expected to win before the former president Ma Ying -jeou, but according to the memoir published by the then Minister of Defense Minister Cai Mingxian, it was learned that Xie Changting, who was worried about the DPP campaign, might win the election.Even if the military strength of the mainland was still less than the United States that year, the mainland was ready for martial arts.

Su Qi believes that if Tsai Ing -wen will be re -elected without recognizing the consensus of 1992 next year, it will make Beijing's possibility of peace and unity.At the same time, the mainland will also face greater internal pressure. From the situation of the 2008 Taiwan presidential election, Su Qi is worried that the two sides of the strait will gradually move towards the showdown.

According to Su Qi provided to United News Network, he made a speech on the round table forum this evening, and he listed four reasons to explain why he believes that the situation in the Taiwan Strait will become particularly dangerous before the Taiwan presidential election next year.

First of all, Su Qi pointed out that the hostile cognition on both sides of the strait became more and more stiff and there were no signs of softening. Beijing abandoned the expectations of the DPP, and the DPP also showed his determination to confront Beijing all the time.In addition, there are also great differences in the interpretation of cross -strait relations and the DPP policy. Beijing believes that the DPP has a real Taiwan independence route, while the United States is basedThe island is used as the fact that it is lost in the hearts of the people.This thinking has led to the misalignment of the United States last year, and the influence of the United States in Taiwan is gradually declining.At present, no one party in the United States and China tries to change the above -mentioned cognition, the possibility of cross -strait crash will increase greatly.

Secondly, Su Qi believed that the cognitive stiffness was from the confidence of cross -strait sides of the strait.The DPP firmly believes that under the competition between China and the United States, the United States' support for Taiwan will be more reliable and can rush forward without fear.Beijing may believe that the comparison of China and the United States in East Asia has changed, and the US military aid will have no strength but insufficient power.The cross -party defense strategy committee and authoritative national defense think Kurland, established by the United States Congress, issued a report that the United States will face decisive frustration in the next battle of the Taiwan Strait.

Third, Su Qi pointed out that the internal politics inside the cross -strait have strengthened the motivation of confrontation. In order to pursue re -election, Cai Yingwen may become more and more intense.

In the end, Su Qi pointed out that the United States, who used to serve as the role of managers, now has a lot of ability to manage the two sides of the strait due to the aforementioned cognitive favidence, decreased influence, and confusion within the government.At the same time, China and the United States have interrupted a strategic dialogue that began in the mid -1990s, and related issues did not have appropriate communication channels.Furthermore, all communication channels between cross -strait governments have been completely interrupted for many years. There are only more suspicion and no mutual understanding.

The 1992 Consensus has been divided by five horses

In 2000, the term 192 consensus Su Qi also bluntly stated that the DPP and Beijing each pinched the 1992 consensus in different directions. The current 1992 consensus is no longer an adult shape and has been divided by five horses.The best things in Taiwan, but now there is no vagueness, there are no longer the largest conventions between the two sides of the strait.

Regarding the recent connection between the DPP government to connect the 1992 consensus into a Taiwan and two systems, Su Qi believes that this is the practice of stimulating each other.