Zhang Yun: DPRK Nuclear issue Diplomacy process model and rhythm

Horizontal World

Although the second US -North Korea summit talks were frustrated with the cancellation of the original lunch and the form of no joint statement, neither of the two sides did not seem to criticize and attack each other, but released a positive signal that might have performed the third special gold meeting.

The US Secretary of State, who is responsible for military control and international security, said that the US President and Secretary of State are open to the US -DPRK dialogue.Correspondingly, the summit reported the Hanoi summit as constructive the next day, and did not mention that the talks were not mentioned.The Chaozhong Society did not blame the United States in the past.

Although on March 8th a week later, the labor news of North Korea publicly disclosed that it was unfortunately due to the US reasons that this talk unexpectedly failed to reach an agreement, but the article also said that the world is looking forward to the smooth progress of the peace process in the peninsula.The US -DPRK relations were improved as soon as possible.On March 15, Cui Shanji, deputy minister of North Korea ’s Foreign Ministry, said at a press conference that North Korea is considering stopping negotiating with the United States without nuclearization, but at the same time, it has positively evaluated the personal relationship between the leaders of the United States and North Korea.There is no timetable at a meeting.It can be said that the various information of the DPRK and the United States is complicated, and the prospects are still blurred and fragile.

Before the Second Golden Meeting, it seemed that all parties were full of expectations. The results of the Hanoi Summit triggered the discussion of where the problem was. The author believes that the following two points deserve attention.

First of all, the top -down head of diplomacy does play an important role in the realization of diplomatic breakthroughs, but it cannot be overly superstitious.On February 28, North Korean leader Kim Jong -un told the media that some people welcomed some people in the summit, and some people suspected that they would be a bit like watching fantasy movies, and said that they believed that there would be good results according to intuition.These all show the optimistic expectations of the DPRK's results. It can be said that in the past year, the leaders of the United States and North Korea released their goodwill through correspondence, special envoy talks, and the Singapore summit, which strengthened North Korea's confidence in the prospects of negotiations.

Earlier this year, according to media reports, Kim Jong -un also said when he met with Jin Yingzhe, who returned from visiting the United States, also said that he was satisfied with Trump's unusual solution to the problem.Although North Korea recognizes that Trump is willing to have a summit with North Korea, it is a rare opportunity. This is the correct understanding in itself.It is worth reflecting.North Korea's politics is completely different from the United States, which will trigger the difference between the two parties on the expectations of the summit.

Although Trump is the president of the United States, the US democracy means that he has been subject to various factors that are subject to domestic politics, such as Congress, intelligence system, and army.In addition, the United States will enter the election period next year. Trump first considers whether the domestic political environment allows him to reach an agreement in terms of policies, followed by whether he can give him a campaign.

At the same time, the United States must also take care of the feelings of the allies. The excessive reaching a transaction in the United States and North Korea may have the psychology of betrayal of the allies and affect the reliability of the alliance.In comparison, North Korean leaders are less affected by domestic factors, but in turn, it is also easy to produce the summit with the United States because they have made up their minds. As long as the US president is determined, it can solve excessive expectations.

Second, the myths that will be a myth to be a big deal to achieve a big transaction through the head talks of the DPRK and the United States to solve the problem once and for all.In fact, the reason why all parties disappointed in the Hanoi talks were relatively large, and a hypothesis behind it was hidden, that is, North Korea immediately thoroughly cheered, and the United States immediately lifted all sanctions.Large transactions look very attractive, but it is unrealistic about the relations between North Korea and the United States.The essence of North Korea and the United States is still a hostile relationship. The only legal foundation between the two sides is a suspension agreement. The two sides have no ability to communicate directly for decades, and have no economic relationships.

To achieve the quality changes of the US -DPRK relations, it is needed by a systematic project, not what the big exchange can achieve.Imagine the US -Soviet relations that year is not because Gorbachev and Reagan's handshake are directly reached as a big deal, but that after the Cuban crisis, the two sides realized that they must strengthen communication and establish various channels in the fields of military control and disarmament.the result of.In 1972, Sino -US relations thawed. Although it seemed to have achieved major transactions because of the international strategic pattern, this did not bring changes in the quality of Sino -US relations. The real change originated after China after the reform and opening up in China.

Therefore, US -DPRK diplomacy cannot rely only on the single channel of leading diplomacy, but must expand various channels, and cannot be excessively expected to be realized in a large transaction. The more likely path in the future will be a superposition of multiple small and medium transactions.

Although the third special gold will be held quickly, the author believes that Trump's time for the third Golden Society will not be dragged too long.Although the US presidential election will not officially start the campaign next year, in fact, it will gradually enter the campaign since this year.Judging from past experience, the previous year of the presidential election is often a year of diplomatic diplomacy.First, the previous year of the election can be a year of harvest year based on the accumulation of accumulation in the past.diplomatic.

Because diplomatic performance can be used as a promotional material for the year of elections, even if it is not necessarily reflected directly on the election results, it can also be used as a sustainable political achievement in future elections.For example, the former President Obama reached an Iranian nuclear issue framework agreement in 2015 and the normalization of Cuban relations in the United States. Although this did not allow Democratic Party candidates Hillary to be elected, there are reason to believe that in the next presidential election, Democratic candidates are likely to be very likelyEvidence of Trump's withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement.Although it is difficult for international relations to predict that the future is the most difficult thing, from the above analysis, the possibility of the third special gold meeting will be held within 2019.

The US -DPRK summit relieves the tension of the Korean Peninsula, but this requires specific corresponding mechanism construction to follow up, such as senior officials and ministerial dialogue mechanisms. At the same time, it is necessary to cooperate with multilateral diplomacy participating in other parties in Northeast Asia.These require a bilateral meeting that is neither too fast nor too slow.

The author is an associate professor at the National Niigata University of Japan

The area of Beijing Foreign Studies University in China and

Senior Researcher of Global Governance Higher Research Institute