Samers: The United States should make more cautious policies for China, otherwise the United States may live in his predictions on himself, and the path of conversation and communication is getting farther and farther.
On March 22, 2019, the 2019 Harvard University China Alumni Public Policy Forum and the CCG Round Table Symposium were successfully held at the Beijing Headquarters of the Globalization Think Tank (CCG).The former US Minister of Finance and the former President of Harvard University Lawrence Bull; Summer delivered a speech at the meeting to deeply analyze the global trade situation and Sino -US relations with the elite of the political and business community in the government, and explore the development of global economic and trade policies and foreign relations.The following is the full text of the speech:
Thank you for your arrival.I feel very honored to be able to come to a outstanding think tank such as Global Think Tank (CCG) to talk to many Chinese government officials and famous scholars and experts.I think this dialogue is very meaningful, especially at the time of the global crisis, such dialogue exchanges are of profound significance for cooperation between countries to jointly respond to global challenges.Here, I want to talk briefly about my four observations of Sino -US relations.
Observation 1: The world history of the first half of the 21st century is inseparable from the rise of China
The revolutionary history before the 21st century was largely related to the development of China and its changes to the Chinese people.China has a population of nearly one -fifth of the world and has contributed nearly one -half of the world's economic growth.In less than two generations, China has jumped from a poor and backward country to a country with important speech in the field of artificial intelligence. From a nearly closed country, it has developed into one of the most active countries in the international community.
These changes seem to make the industrial revolution just a small -scale change.But in fact, the changes brought about by the industrial revolution are all overwhelming, from gender division to art form to the essence of science, from the places where people live to people's cognitive methods of development, to people's views of each other, the industrial revolutionChange every corner of human society.
The changes in China are also extremely important for world history.If China's rise is as peace as described by it, then China's ascension will be a positive and excellent progress in human history.Because in this process, many eye -catching things have appeared, such as women as one of the largest technology companies in the world.This is of great significance for the entire world history.However, the 21st century is likely to be a tragedy, and this tragedy is likely to be full of conflicts and contradictions brought by China's fast and fast air.According to the slurry trap proposed by Professor Graham Allison, this world crisis is difficult to eliminate.
Observation 2: The US policy has always existed
Talking about this observation is not a happy thing, but I think it is like a friend telling another friend to tell the truth, even if he does not want to hear such news or does not want to see such a truth.Over the past three decades, the United States has undergone tremendous views on China.And I think this change is not what the world's countries think, but only after Trump was elected president.When I judge that when the presidential candidate in 2020 talked about foreign policy, he would definitely criticize Trump, saying that his attitude towards China was too mild.This is like Bill Bull; Clinton criticized old Bush, saying that his attitude towards China was too mild; just like Obama also criticized Bush's attitude towards China to a certain extent.In fact, I think that if the Hillary BULL; Clinton's campaign was successful, then her policy after taking office may be more bolder than the President Trump's policy.
In the United States, the most important friendly group for China is businessmen and entrepreneurs.However, there has always been a lot of dissatisfaction with China among this group.Because they felt unfair treatment in exporting to China, this injustice was more obvious when they invest and cooperate in China.This dissatisfaction has been expanding in the United States in recent years. They believe that although China's economy is growing, it has not only been more open, but even compared with sixty years ago, its willingness to open up has weakened.And from the perspective of other countries' attitudes towards China, they also believe that China's nationalist mood is higher, and the inclusiveness has decreased.This judgment is based on China's military operations in recent years, such as China on the South China Sea issue and the behavior of reclaiming land in the near Pacific Coast.At the same time, this judgment is also based on other economic claims of China, such as the Belt and Road Initiative.This is still based on China's ideological transformation of religious beliefs.The various behaviors of China have made the international community MDASH; mdash; especially in the United States mdash; mdash; I feel that this kind of benign coexistence and cooperation has no longer applicable to loose foreign policies that have always implemented China.
Observation 3: The United States should be more cautious in the formulation of China policy
The United States should be careful about the formulation of China policy.If the United States' negative cognition of China appeared a few years ago, it means that China has threatened the core interests of the United States.The mainstream explanation of the United States' economic failure is the US economic policy towards China.Of course, some of the statements of Chinese contain exaggerated ingredients.I don't think that if China has completed every request made by the United States, then the US GDP will be 1%higher than it is now.Therefore, it is inaccurate to attribute the primary cause of the US economic development to China. It is inaccurate that the impact of China will not fully explain the slow development of the US economy.The saying of China's impact considers additional imports, but they did not consider additional exports, did not consider the benefits of low -cost imports, and did not consider low interest rates and related economic stimulus effect hellip; hellip;Therefore, China's impact does not fully explain that the US economy has not performed well.
At the same time, the problem of intellectual property protection in China cannot be the root cause of the rapid progress of Chinese technology.In fact, mathematical information has become popular in modern society.And during the Cold War, the United States only maintained the Soviet Union for three years in terms of nuclear weapons manufacturing.In the era when nuclear weapons need to be very delicate manufacturing technology and its research results have not been publicly released, technology is difficult to ensure that it is completely confidential. In the era when information technology is so developed today, it is difficult to imagine what kind of power we need to prevent it from letting no way.The country's high -tech core technologies such as artificial intelligence or biological sciences.But China should also reflect on its lack of intellectual property protection.
I think the United States also needs to think about its current policy MDASH; MDASH; whether the United States wants to reduce its dependence with China, whether China wants to pursue completely autonomy in information technology and other fields, whether to refuse to obtain a large number of steel opportunities at low prices and do a lot of steel opportunities and do it with low prices and do a lot of steel and steel and have a large number of steel opportunities for steel.Further reject Chinese capital.We can't judge whether conservative economic policies in the United States can bring economic benefits to the United States.If the U.S. economic policy is to serve those who do not support economic reform and political opening up, to enhance the internal conflict of the United States to China, then the United States may live in his predictions, and the road to dialogue exchanges is becoming more.The farther.
Observation 4: China should think carefully about what it wants to achieve
China should think very carefully what it wants.This is a difficult task for a rising force.China should not be limited to a established border. China should also occupy a seat in international mechanisms and its formulation.International order.However, this does not mean that China can continue to abide by rules as before.Because the Chinese economy is no longer a state of decades ago, this tolerant economic policy cannot continue.The economic development brought by technical collection, trade subsidies and dumping to China does not mean that China can continue to be away from international rules and obtain the power of designated rules.China wants to become the world's leading country and China wants to replace the positions of other big countries. It is two concepts.
In the past two years, China is in a senseFortunately, because US foreign policy is not very wise.The United States has split between the United States and its traditional Atlantic and Pacific Allies, creating opportunities for China and these countries.If this crack does not exist, then isolation for China will be global.I think China should re -adjust its foreign policy at this time, which is in line with China's interests.China should not underestimate the power of the United States, just like Churchill said that after using other options, the United States will always make the right decision.
My word today is very fierce because I think that human beings may face unprecedented time now. Information technology has liberated labor, and the progress of life science has extended human life.century.Therefore, China should find its own way to respect coexistence with friendship and cooperation.This is why I think the conversation of such dialogues held in the global think tank is of great significance.
Note: This article is authorized by the global think tank and does not represent the view of FT Chinese website.CCG, referred to as CCG, is the leading international think tank in China.CCG is committed to China's globalization strategy, internationalization and internationalization of corporate internationalization. At present, there are nearly 100 research think tank research and professionals in full -time think tanks.
