Huangshan: Real estate has realized the capitalization of foreign wealth in China; with the acceleration of relevant policies, the Chinese real estate market will also enter a new era of rent and sale.

On December 1, 1987, Shenzhen knocked on the first mallet of the land auction of New China.On April 12, 1988, the first session of the Seventh National People's Congress passed the draft constitutional amendment to delete the word lease from the original constitution.The official kick -off.However, at this time, the real estate market does not have the conditions to be stronger and stronger, and there are problems such as narrow scope of the population demand population and insufficient thrust of local governments.In 1994, the reform of the taxation system laid the momentum foundation for China's real estate development to a fairly extent. In 2001, joining the WTO provided important financial conditions and economic foundations for China's real estate development, and opened the golden period of rapid development of the real estate market in China.However, with the arrival of the financial crisis in 2008, especially after 2012, China's export -oriented model has become increasingly microly, and the government's attitude towards real estate has gradually changed from previous encouragement and regulation to strict control and restrictions.The sale has become the main foundation of the current property market.So, is Chinese real estate moving towards the new era?How should we understand this historic change?Why is the tax trend of rental housing and property?

1. Real estate is the flower carefully cultivated by the government

After the real estate market in China was basically, after 2001, although there was a sporadic supply of commercial housing in 1987-2001, the Chinese commercial housing market was in the initial stage due to narrow scope of the population demand population and insufficient thrust of the local government.The reform of the score tax system in 1994 greatly reduced the fiscal revenue ratio of local governments.The local government obtained the demand for economic construction funds through land transfer; the reform of state-owned enterprise from 1997-1998 fundamentally broke the iron rice bowl of the planned economy and realized the separation of state-owned enterprises and corporate employees in personal relationships and systems, which created it and created it, which created it, which created it, which created it and created it, which created it, which created it, which created it, which created it, which created it, which created it, which created it, which created it, which created it, which created it and created it.A large number of potential housing groups; a series of real estate policies introduced later further strengthened and expanded the scope of housing buying groups: in July 1998, the introduction of further deepening the reform of the urban housing system and accelerating the construction of housing construction decided to stop housing physical allocation since then that year, Establish a new housing -based and socialized housing system for housing allocation, housing supplies, and socialized housing; after August 2001, government departments will no longer approve cooperative housing to build housing.These policies have laid the institutional foundation, incentives and supply and demand foundations for the development of real estate after 2001.

Although various reforms have been innovative, why did the Chinese property market develop slowly before 2001?In addition to the concept of the majority of residents' concept of housing from previously inherent planning housing to the current market -oriented currency buying, there is also a crucial reason that the most important reason is that ordinary residents basically do not have the ability to buy a house.The laid -off brought by the reform of the salary and the reform of state -owned enterprise makes it difficult for ordinary families to bear high house purchase expenses.However, this situation was broken in 2001. In November 2001, China joined the WTO. Since then, it has opened 10 years when the national economy has developed at a high speed.The land has accelerated the process of urbanization in China, and a large number of rural population has begun to transfer to coastal areas. Many small fishing villages such as Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang have grown into international cities overnight.The owners and employees of the system become the huge demand for commercial housing.Therefore, the misalignment of local government financial rights and rights brought by the reform of the tax system has greatly stimulated the description of the local government to strengthen the real estate, and the development of state -owned enterprise reform, real estate regulations and the development of the foreign trade economy has created a large number of house purchase willingness and house purchase capabilities.The potential customer base, for the first time, formed a resonance in the commercial housing market.

Second, real estate is not just a financial money bag

At this point, we have found the supply and demand force of the property market, but this is far from all of the real estate in China. One of the problems we need to understand is why the government promotes the market -oriented reform of the real estate?In other words, why does the government spend so hard to cultivate the real estate market?An obvious answer is that the government can profit from the real estate market, and the facts are indeed. In 2010, the local government's state-owned land transfer revenue exceeded 3 trillion yuan, accounting for 74%of the local fiscal revenue of the local level.The average annual increase in transfer income exceeded 7%, and in 2017, it reached 5.2 trillion yuan. The proportion of land transfer funds in some provinces and cities such as Liaoning, Shandong, and Chongqing, which accounted for more than 50%of local public fiscal revenue for many years. Jiujiang and HangzhouThe land fiscal dependence in cities such as Nanjing and Changsha has even exceeded 100%in some years.Therefore, it seems that the favorable coco is the reason why the local government is focusing on the cultivation of the real estate market. It seems that it is pushed, and some people even think that local governments transfer the wealth of residents through real estate.However, if we carefully consider, we will find that the government's point of view with the people through the real estate market is more static and distributed. It only see that the government has transferred wealth from residents, but not seeing the wealth of residents' wealth.The source, and these wealth sources are closely related to the real estate market.If real estate is simply regarded as a distribution problem, you can only see the appearance of the real estate. It is difficult to understand the main tone of the current housing and the determination of the country to vigorously develop leased housing and the necessity and urgent need to push the real estate tax.sex.The in -depth understanding of these issues requires our understanding of real estate from the perspective of static distribution to the height of dynamic development.

Some scholars believe that China's real estate market has more than the role of pledge of local government financing and corporate financing, which has provided us with a new perspective with a better understanding of real estate.However, this understanding is still limited to a closed economic system. It seems difficult to explain why the golden decade of China's real estate is highly reconnected with the golden decade of export economy, or why China's real estate cycle and foreign trade cycle high resonanceEssenceAt the same time, this view is mainly based on the motivation of the local government to develop real estate, and basically ignores the demand side of real estate, and it seems to be suspected of walking on one leg.Therefore, we also need to look at the development of the Chinese real estate market from a wider perspective.

From an open economic point of view, China's real estate development and the development of foreign trade economy are two sides of a coin. Exports bring foreign wealth to the Chinese economy. The real estate market continues to absorb and release these foreign wealth, and then promote the high -speed development of China's economy.EssenceThis absorption of general land that appeared internally as the original non -commodity began to convert into commercial development land, and the corresponding land needs to occupy a certain amount of currency. These occupied currencies have become the residual items of M2 after M2 minus GDP and CPI.The main part of the component.The land for commercial housing after absorbing a large number of foreign wealth or occupying a large amount of currency immediately entered the development link, which will bring the development of steel, cement, pipelines, and even construction, metallurgy, home appliances and other industries.The development process is also the process of driving residents 'employment and increasing residents' income. Financial manifestations are the process of releasing and creating the currency of the currency in the related industries that have risen from real estate and the related industries that have emerged from real estate.Therefore, we cannot simply regard real estate as an isolated industry, nor can we understand real estate as a financing pledge of government and enterprises. In the process of China's economic development, real estate has played a role in the capitalization of foreign wealth in China.It has created the investment -driven model of the Chinese economy, and even directly contributes to high -growth Chinese miracles that directly lead to high growth and low inflation.The proportion of real estate investment in the investment of fixed assets remains above 20%, and the comprehensive contribution rate of real estate to GDP has basically maintained at about 20%.If we regard the foreign wealth we earn as a basic currency, then these basic currencies also need to make currency creation through domestic commercial banks to maximize the role. Real estate is to a certain extent as the role of currency multiplication.Through the fact that it affects nearly 20 upstream and downstream industries related to itThese foreign basic currencies are capitalized in China.

3. The end of the old real estate model and the regeneration of the new era

Since real estate and foreign trade are two sides of a coin, the outlet -oriented economic model micro will definitely bring the decline of the real estate market.On the one hand, the rapidly declining foreign basic currency no longer needs the real estate multiplier. On the other hand, if you continue to use real estate to make large currency multiples, it will directly bring a large number of excess production capacity and the rapid rise in macro leverage rates.EssenceIn the era of exports to create foreign exchange, first create M2, and then create basic currencies, that is, M2 contains a large amount of basic currency, or more intuitive, the growth of M2 largely reflects the growth of corporate and residential assets to a large extent.However, with the sharp decline in the basic currency brought by foreign exchange funds, the RMB is increasingly lost, and the connotation of M2 has improved from international open type to domestic closed type. Its growth directly manifested as the upward of China's macro leverage.At this time, if the real estate is told as high as before, the leverage rate of residents will rise rapidly.Data show that from 2002-2008 resident leverage (the ratio of residents' debt to disposable income) was basically maintained at about 30%, but since 2009, the leverage ratio of residents began to rise rapidly.9.1%, as high as 75.6%in 2017, and increased by 5%from 2009 to 2017.This indicates that the traditional government of government land-selling-real estate development-residential development-residential real estate model is unsustainable, and the new era calls for new real estate models.

Although the continued advancement of the old real estate model is likely to mean the rapid rise in leverage, real estate has played an important role in accelerating the process of urbanization, improving living conditions, and even being related to the majority of citizens.How to make profits and avoid harm becomes an important topic in front of us, which must not only retain the favorable function of real estate, but also avoid the negative effects of traditional development models on leverage, protecting just demand, cracking down on real estate and vigorous development of leased housing is undoubtedly the best is the bestSelection, especially leased housing, can not only better meet the state's description of the country's accelerated urbanization process, ensure the living needs of residents, but also fundamentally suppress the leverage too quickly.On December 8, 2017, the Work Conference of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee proposed to accelerate the reform of the housing system and the construction of a long -term mechanism. On March 5, 2018, the government work report proposed to cultivate the housing rental market, develop common property housing, accelerate the establishment of multi -subject supply, and to accelerate the supply of multiple subjects.Multi -channel guarantee and rent -and -purchase housing system has risen to the level of housing system. Vigorously developing leased housing is a major historical strategic choice that fully meets the development process of China's real estate market and the stage of national economic development.At the same time, in order to purify the demand side of real estate and truly protect the just -needed and crack down on real estate, the real estate tax has become an inevitable choice. The 2018 government work report has clearly proposed to steadily promote real estate tax legislation.On March 5, 2019, Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang stated in the government work report to improve the local tax system and steadily promote real estate tax legislation.The review of the Civil Code, the formulation of legislative investigations and drafting of the real estate tax law, and stepping up work to ensure that it is completed as scheduled, which means that although the probability of real estate tax in the short -term landing is not high, its legislative procedures are expected to accelerate.

Fourth, explanation

By reviewing the development process of the Chinese real estate market, it can be seen that many reforms in the late 1980s and the 1990s have created conditions for the booming real estate market after 2001; after joining the WTO, the rapid development of the foreign trade economy has laid a layout for the rapid development of real estate.Economic and financial foundation.The vigorous development of real estate has better realized the capitalization of foreign wealth in China, and the real estate economy and export economy complement each other, which has jointly promoted the rapid development of China's economy.

However, with the decline of the foreign trade economy, the unilateral emergence of real estate is likely to observe the rapid rise of macro leverage; in order to avoid the harm of economic development and financial stability of the old real estate model, at the same timePractical functions such as the process of Huahua and the needs of the people to live and work in peace and career, the state proposed the main tone of housing and living in the state, clarifying the reform of the housing system and the construction of long -term mechanisms.The housing system and the steadily promoting real estate tax legislation in rent and purchase are the correct choices in line with China's real estate development process and the stage of national economic development.With the introduction of relevant policies, the Chinese real estate market will gradually enter the new era of rent and sale from the old era of previous development-sales.

Note: This article only represents the author's personal point of view.Editor of this article Xu Jin [email protected]