Author: Li Xiukun
For Thailand, no matter what the ending of the new election on March 24, 2019, one thing can be determined, that is, the country's political environment since the country's military coup has finally returned to the election again.But the current Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-CHA may not care about the success or failure of the election, but the attitude of neighboring China.
Since the military coup in 2014, Thailand's political environment has been shaped by the military government for 5 years.The most threatening competitors Thaksin Chinnawat and Yingluck Shinawatra were also exiled abroad, and it was difficult to interfere with political affairs.As the Thai situation is basically stable, a more important issue follows: What role can Thailand play in the future of the Belt and Road Initiative?
General Ba Yu and the military government have always supported and actively cooperated with Beijing.This is also consistent with the current environment of Zhongtai.But he believed, Yinglu Group, and his Majesty's Phak Phuea Thai and Beijing were as close as Beijing.When two major interest groups in China and Thailand have entanglement, this triangle relationship has become an obstacle to entering and leaving Thailand in China.
He believes that his brothers and sisters are still guests in China.China has not publicly opposed or cooperated with Thailand any actions.Considering the contradiction between the Thai Party Group and the Military Government, this triangle relationship is embarrassed.Considering that China does not allow other countries to provide a venue for China's political separation forces, China will naturally not provide a place for the political forces of other countries to confront the authorities.After the winning or defeat of the Thai election has been divided, the conflict between his believers, Yinglu Group and Bayu Group will also help China.
The 2019 Thai election finally started after experiencing a lot of twists and turns.However, for analysts, the winning and defeat of this election may be shown at the beginning.Earlier, the peacekeeping committee formed by the military has designated 250 members in the upper court, and the candidates of the Prime Minister were jointly selected by the 750 people from the upper court and the lower house. At this point, the current Prime Minister Ba Yu and the citizen of his His Majesty (and the party (and againThe leading position of the Bacchara Power Party) can be basically determined.
Of course, this does not mean that the preparation of Bayu Group is foolproof.For the military, the Thai Party Group was still the biggest opponent for the Thai Party Group that had been defeated many times before, but the Thai Party Group was still their biggest opponent.
On January 22, the former Minister of Transportation, ChatChart Suthipant and former Agricultural Minister Suda Middot; Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, also ended in the internal struggle with his representative of Kun Ying and his faith group., Choose the same abroad, took out 18 campaign demands, and there were quite a lot of supporters across Thailand. For the Thai Party Group, it seemed to have broken away from the political shackles of the military coup in 2014 and began its counterattack process.
However, the Thai party camp also seemed to see the serious deficiencies of its own strength from February 8th to March 7th.Although the party's surrounding friends of the party successfully invited his political close friends to the Prime Minister of Princess Ubol Ratana in Thailand, who was highly looking at Thailand.However, the pressure of Princess Maha Vajiralongkorn and the political group behind it was forced to withdraw from the election, and the Guardian Party was disbanded in early March.At this point, it is difficult for Thailand's political pattern to have changed greatly in a short period of time.
After Myanmar has presented democratic politics under the military intervention, if Thailand can fully learn its experience, it must be able to make some achievements in similar fields, and then continue to pay attention to economic development after the internal affairs are settled.
As far as the economic issues of Thailand are concerned, the country has a long -term suspension.That is how to position Bangkok's role in the related plan in China.The Ministry of Commerce of China has pointed out that Thailand's attitude towards the Belt and Road Initiative is both supportive and doubtful at the same time.
Part of Thai doubts about China are based on traditional factors.The current situation of turbulence in Thailand's domestic political situation and the huge gap between the rich and the poor in the country cannot be ignored.In addition, there are homogeneous problems in Zhongtai Trade products, and the Thai people have a poor attitude towards China because the authorities have been promoting inertia for many years, and Thailand's dislike and resistance to China and the Belt and Road Initiative became more prominent.
Fortunately, the Pakistani authorities have done a lot of work in the stability and implementation of reform, and have gradually eased the intricate political and social contradictions in Thailand.Since 2015, the Bayu government has expressed Bangkok's goodwill for Beijing and positive interest in the Belt and Road Initiative.For example, in 2015, Thailand cooperated with China to repatriate terrorists; in March 2017, the Thai Congress decided to purchase the Chinese S26T submarine; by December 2017, the first phase of the China -Thailand railway cooperation project in Thailand's first standard rail high -speed railway cooperation project has also been.Start.However, after seeing Beijing's ambiguous attitude towards him and Yinglu Group, Bayu Group still felt a little uneasy.
From 2006 to 2014, he believed that he had been exiled overseas and his brothers and sisters had been to China more than once.Considering that the Fugu and Enemoral Capital Group and the Sinawa family still have great power in Thailand. Yinglu himself also briefly served as Shantou International Container Wharf Co., Ltd. from December 12, 2018 to January 12, 2019.(SICT), a chairman and legal representative of the shipping company jointly participated in the shipping company jointly participated in the China Merchants Port Development (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. and Shantou SASAC.When the largest wild party forces in Thailand are related to China, the anxiety of the Bangkok authorities seems to be reasonable.
In fact, he did not use Hong Kong and Singapore as an important base in its overseas remote control.This series of trends have been presented in February 2018.In February, May, November, and December 2018, his brothers and sisters met with the leaders of the Thai party in Singapore more than once, and repeatedly discussed the future development direction and related strategic policies of the Thai party.
By March 2019, he believed that he still held a wedding for his daughter in Hong Kong and banquet celebrities from all walks of life including Princess Uvan Lat.For the purpose, he believes that his brothers and sisters will also have the difficulty of Beijing and not put China in a difficult situation.In addition, China ’s country also intentionally reduced the door to the door after 2019, and even canceled his brothers and sisters in a press conference in Hong Kong. On the side of Biyu, he must also understand the painstaking efforts of Beijing.
After all, although Yinglu stepped down, although the Sino -Thai rice was stranded in high -speed rail projects, the Thailand's coup has won the favor of Ba Yu in the posture of the military government, and China -Thailand's cooperation in many fields has progressed rapidly.Today, as Yinglu choose to stay completely away from the political world, and the overall situation of the Thai party is also being eaten by the citizenship party planted by Bayupei, his brothers and sisters have been in exile for too long, and his influence in Thailand is gradually thin.It can be imagined that the new environment after the election will also promote the acceptance of major political forces in Thailand, and then resolve this political barrier between China and Thailand.
