Horizontal World
The second US -North Korea summit talks ended with the end of the original lunch and the form of a joint statement. The Korean stock market was frustrated, and international public opinion was also called failure or talked about collapse.It is true that the negotiation of the summit level is really surprising that the end of the dramatic way is really surprising, and it also reflects the lack of preparations for both sides from one side.
However, if you think from a long perspective, you will find that this result is more considered as a setback, not a catastrophic failure.Phase; in a positive sense, even providing a buffer period and a rotation room for all parties.
The US -DPRK relations broke out from the leaders of the two sides in 2017, and they went directly to Singapore in 2018. They experienced huge changes in a short time.After the Singapore Summit of the United States and North Korea, there are two major uncertainty in the future process, one is US politics, and the second is the determination to economic reform and opening up in North Korea.The former may be the greatest uncertainty.
In terms of domestic politics, domestic politics will bring various interference to Trump's diplomacy.Just at the same time at the Meijin meeting of the United States and North Korea, Trump's former lawyer Kon attended the Congress hearing and attracted the attention of the US media than the Hanoi Summit. Even if Trump reached an agreement with Kim Jong -un, he would not get himThe expected publicity effect.
At the same time, the tension of the United States and North Korea will affect the vested interests of Congress, military, and intelligence departments related to the US -South Korea military alliance. They will inevitably find various reasons to blame too easily.At the beginning of February, when the leadership of the US intelligence agency was questioned by Congress, it was clear that North Korea would not abandon nuclear weapons as a tool for survival.
While Trump wants to use the North Korean issue to be re -elected to add points to the greatest extent, he also needs to consider the balance to prevent the process from getting too fast and lower points.To a large extent, there is no agreement to be said to have a statement to consider the need for domestic opposition forces, and the next time North Korea makes a greater concession, the two parties can be explained as a new results.
From a diplomatic perspective, the United States is likely to take into account the acceptance of allies, especially Japan and South Korea.By the beginning of 2018, Trump's policy of North Korea is still the biggest stressful policy, and Japan fully follows the United States to adopt the maximum pressure.However, without discussing with Japan, Trump began to contact North Korea and held a summit unprecedentedly, which was a direct blow for the Abe administration.
Although Abe's cabinet has adjusted diplomatic languages last year, the worries that may be betrayed by the United States and the alliance abandoned will always exist.If the Hanoi Summit will quickly reach a new substantial agreement by the United States and North Korea, this will further make Japan in an awkward situation.Although the government in South Korea supports the reconciliation of the United States and North Korea, the opposition and conservative forces are not satisfied with this. Too fast in the United States may also cause political confusion within the alliance countries.
From the perspective of internal affairs and diplomacy, the Stecker Second Society's frustration can leave some buffer room for the US's internal affairs, diplomacy and alliance countries, alleviate some impact and pressure, and provide a midfield rest time for opening a new round of negotiations.
North Korea's participation in international communication learning process
Trump explained the cause of the collapse at the press conference after the Eat of the Hanoi Summit, because Kim Jong -un asked to destroy Ningbian nuclear facilities in exchange for the United States to completely terminate economic sanctions.However, North Korea ’s foreign minister Li Yonghao used a very rare way of press conference that night, saying that Kim Jong -un only demanded part of the sanctions that have not been related to people’ s livelihood and military sanctions.He also said that North Korea put forward pragmatic suggestions, including destroying Ningbian nuclear facilities.Although the two parties have different opinions, it is clear that North Korea's primary concern for negotiations is the economy.Although North Korea did not realize this time, this setback was a good learning process for North Korea's leadership to participate in international affairs.
First of all, Kim Jong -un seemed to gradually accept the usual practice of participating in international affairs.On the first day of the summit, he faced questions from reporters. Kim Jong -un will improvise for the first time.Li Yonghao took the initiative to hold a press conference on the next night to explain North Korea's position. These seemingly small changes are worthy of attention for this long -term isolated country.We can see that North Korea did not make a statement of attacking fiercely because Trump ended in advance.
Li Yonghao also said that this is the biggest non -denomination step that they have made based on the current trust of each other.The next day, the Chaozhong Society described the Hanoi Summit as constructive, and did not mention that the talks did not reach a consensus.The purpose of the US -DPRK summit is not just seeking results. The diplomatic process itself is a good learning process. North Korean leaders have never had such a direct dialogue and negotiation with the US president.This is the first experience for North Korean leaders. The negotiations may not be consensus, especially in a system like the United States. President has domestic and international pressure. With such cognition, it will not withdraw from frustration.
Although Trump suddenly ended the talks, he still stated at a press conference that it was a content talks, and also prompted the possibility of an agreement in the end.The United States has not continued to use the past used vocabulary, requiring North Korea to comprehensively verify irreversible nucleus non -nucleus (CVID), which is also a manifestation of goodwill.The comments from the North Korean Society said that the Supreme Leaders of the two countries provided the opportunity to deepen mutual respect and trust in the second Hanoi Summit, and brought the relationship between the two parties to a new stage.This shows that North Korea is more diplomatic language, not to correspond to international affairs with combat wording.
Second, the frustration of the summit and the diplomatic process itself are also the determination to test North Korea's determination to the economic reform and opening up.Through the Hanoi Summit, the priorities that the two sides care about are relatively clear. The United States must be completely nuclear, and North Korea will terminate sanctions.This time, the collapse allowed both parties to start understanding the requirements of each other and the bottom line that can accept the agreement. The next step depends on whether the two parties can use part of the non -nuclearization in exchange for some economic sanctions.For North Korea, if economic reform and opening up, you must have no nuclearization at the same time. In other words, it is impossible to get both.
Starting later last year, North Korea opened an official website to introduce some infrastructure projects, which actually showed a certain degree of economic reform and opening up signals.However, these are under economic sanctions. If it is not lifted, it cannot be achieved. To lift the sanctions North Korea, it must make greater substantial nuclearization movements.
Although South Korea is also very interested in economic cooperation, it cannot be around for economic sanctions.This time, Tan Cai also gives North Korea's economic reform designer a space for thinking and planning, so that they can carefully think about how to better formulate decisions and make North Korea boldly put forward some suggestions to attract investors, which means that in economic conditionsPrepare.
Third, North Korea will understand China's indispensable effect in the process.Based on the above analysis, the US -DPRK negotiations must be the ups and downs of the storm, entering and retreating, and taking two steps to take a step back or even step back.In this process, China provides necessary intellectual support and guarantees at appropriate time, which helps North Korea to accurately and comprehensively understand the dynamics of domestic politics in the United States.Let North Korea avoid unnecessary strategic anxiety.
After decades of hostile to each other, the United States and North Korea have been looking forward to one or two summits to reverse the Qiankun. It is not realistic. The participation of other relevant parties needs to make this process smoother.In terms of economic development, China will also play an important role.This is not only because of the volume of the Chinese economy itself, but also because China has experienced the process of closing to openness. It is clear how to grasp the speed in this open process.
The permanent peace of the Korean Peninsula must overcome many difficulties. The US -DPRK dialogue is only the beginning. The process of reaching a consensus between the two sides must be coordinated with each other with other major related parties. It is impossible to carry out two separate.In addition, there is a huge gap between the two parties, which is essentially an incompetent negotiation, and such a negotiation must eventually be guaranteed by the multilateral framework.
After the summit, North Korea will discuss with China and Russia that the United States will communicate with Japan and South Korea. This is actually the overlapping process of bilateral negotiations between the United States and North Korea.This allows other parties to have the opportunity to pass their views and achieve a balance of demand.
At the Reykjavik Summit between Reagan and Gorbachev in 1986, the negotiations ended in a dramatic way, but one year later, the two sides reached a military control treaty.This shows that a negative talks does not mean that the sky is going to fall. Since last year, the biggest change between the United States and North Korea is the change of language and wording.For example, Trump no longer uses the strong remarks in the past, such as flames and anger, but shows the willingness to solve problems through diplomacy; and North Korea also uses diplomatic languages more to change the very confrontational wording of the past.Both sides have hinted that the expectations of meeting and reaching an agreement again, which shows that the two sides have begun to learn from each other in the interaction, and these are necessary steps for mutual increase of trust and understanding.
The author is an associate professor at the National Niigata University of Japan
The area of Beijing Foreign Studies University in China and
Senior Researcher of Global Governance Higher Research Institute
The setbacks of the summit and the diplomatic process itself are also the determination to test North Korea's determination to make economic reform and opening up.Through the Hanoi Summit, the priorities that the two sides care about are relatively clear. The United States must be completely nuclear, and North Korea will terminate sanctions.This time, the collapse allowed both parties to start understanding the requirements of each other and the bottom line that can accept the agreement. The next step depends on whether the two parties can use part of the non -nuclearization in exchange for some economic sanctions.
