Cao Xin: By analyzing the clues of the North Korea and the United States Summit, the domestic situation of the two countries, and the personal characteristics of the two people, we can analyze the cause of the talks.
On the occasion of Lingmen, the twice Jinte would be yellow.Not only did the next day end the next day, the original dinner did not go, and there was no agreement in the end.In fact, by analyzing the clues of the North Korea and the United States, the domestic situation of the two countries, and the personal characteristics of the two countries, and the personal characteristics of the gold and special people, we can still see the veins.It is not impossible to improve. The key is that China must establish a bottom -line thinking on the Nuclear Nuclear.
Why is the Second Special Chamber yellow?
Objectively speaking, both Kim Jong -un and Trump have the urgent needs in the meeting on February 28.In the face of the long -term sanctions of the United Nations, Kim Jong -un was too stressful. He urgently needed to ease the relationship between North Korea and the United States, and then relaxed sanctions. Once these two points made progress, and letting the Labor Party's Propaganda Department manipulate, it is definitely his great achievements., Can also block the mouth of North Korea's abandonment of nuclear people.Similarly, Trump, who has been in trouble in China in the past few days, also needs diplomatic results to relieve difficulties.In this case, the two parties actually only need to do two points:
First, there is a political declaration (not legal documents) or similar expressions that end the Korean War; North Korea has taken the initial steps on abandoning nuclear.Because only the war between North Korea and the United States can we talk about North Korea abandoned the nuclear, otherwise Kim Jong -un will not explain in the North Korean party, in the army, and the people: Why is it still in a state of war with the United States but abandon the nuclear?It is reported that this time Trump recognized when the director of the Qingwatai Security Office visited the United States last year. This time, North Korea also said that he was willing to abandon Ningbian nuclear facilities and accept international supervision.
Second, relaxation of sanctions, this is good for Kim Jong -un in China, and it is not harmful to Trump because Trump's measures are the default South Korean President Moon Jae -in to cooperate with North Korea to open Junggda tourism.
This is not very conflict with the decision of the Security Council, and there are gray areas to operate. At the same time, sanctions on North Korea are still there. Trump also has cards to restrict North Korea abandoning nuclear.The sanctions resolution made.
According to the first line of news, the two parties have tacit understanding of the above two points until the meeting on February 27. The work team of the two parties has prepared the declaration documents to be signed the next day.The issue of setting up a liaison office will enrich and strengthen the credibility of the public statement of the Korean War.But the next day, one thing came out.When Trump met with Kim Jong -un the next day, he suddenly proposed a secret nuclear base in North Korea according to the U.S. technical intelligence. It was required that North Korea should not only abandon the Ningbian base, but also include the secret base.
This made Kim Jong -un fall into an embarrassing situation, and he had no preparations in advance and could not express his statement, so North Korea in turn asked to ask the United States to cancel all sanctions. This is unwilling to do this in the United States.
So what Trump said at the press conference later was: I thought, the Secretary of State Pompeo also thought, and felt that the signing agreement was not necessarily good.So we saw the current results.It should be said that the occurrence of this situation fully meets the personality of the two. Trump likes to engage in big news. At present, he also needs to have more political achievements to relieve domestic difficulties; Kim Jong -un's foreign experience is relatively insufficient, just like we are in the process of communication between the two parties.As you see: Kim Jong -un's facial expression has been tense and muscles are stiff.But this time started in the United States, North Korea was passive.
According to the current difficulties of Trump in China, we can analyze why Trump is unwilling to sign such an agreement: the United States has made the end of the Korean War, the establishment of a liaison office in Pyongyang, and encouraging allies to let go of King Kong Mountain tourismIn concession, it was only rewarded by a North Korean nuclear base of Ningbian nuclear base; there was no nuclear schedule and roadmap; it even let North Korea deceive, because North Korea's secret nuclear base did not notify the United States.Signing such a declaration is that Trump's current dilemma is equal to fire on fire.No contract, at least there is no loss.Anyway, the sanctions are still there. Seeing how long you can support North Korea, Kim Jong -un's current passive and difficulties know that it is not signed to give him pressure.
The above situation tells us: North Korea has made full two -handed preparation for abandoning nuclear, which can be fully proven from it without reporting the secret nuclear base.On the other hand, Trump revealed at the press conference that afternoon: there is no third special gold plan; he will soon discuss the current situation with Japanese and Korean leaders.This series of measures is about to be stressed by North Korea.
Therefore, from the perspective of the realization of non -verification of the Korean Peninsula, the current role of China has immediately emerged. China's next policy will have a significant direct impact on the current development trend of non -verification of the current and future Peninsula, which affects it and affects it.Process, speed and direction.The key here is: China must establish a bottom -line thinking.
The bottom line of thinking must be established for the nuclear ninemal
The bottom line of China's nuclear should be logically expressed in this way: as a neighbor state that depends on the lip and teeth of the Korean Peninsula, the Nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is a major security interest in China.Major hidden dangers; North Korea's nuclear is a matter for China.In practical operation, research and handling the North Korean nuclear issue must first be treated as China's own major security interests.China is a major interest directly interest for the North Korean Nuclear and the Korean Peninsula, and it is by no means that it is by no means a medium.
This is first of all the reality of the geopolitical environment, and at the same time, the lessons of history are not far away.
There are two levels of local political environment: one is the geographical environment of North Korea and Chinese lips and teeth.On the other hand, it is also the excellent place of external forces to contain China's excellent place mdash; MDASH; after all, the illegal nature of the North Korean nuclear is qualitative by the United Nations Security Council.There is no one to say about the above two points, everyone knows.
In terms of historical lessons, Yin Jian is not far away: During the Japanese and Russian war in the early century, Russia and Russia in the early century, and the Qing government clearly announced that this was a matter of fighting between Japan and Russia.Inter -intervals.The final consequences of this policy are still unbearable.The basic conclusion that it leaves is: China cannot avoid or avoid.
On the other hand, the current nuclear policy of the Trump administration is also the biggest external factors that China must establish a bottom -line thinking.
The United States is currently the biggest variable of the nuclearization process of the peninsula. Judging from the series of behaviors since Trump dealt with the North Korean nuclear issue, he obviously has the following logic. This is also Trump's bottom -line thinking:
The first is the national security of the United States, which has also mentioned many times.This means that it must not tolerate North Korea to have intercontinental ballistic missiles.In the absence of loading tools, the security of the United States can be guaranteed, which should be the bottom line that the United States cannot shake.
The second is to deal with the time and rhythm of the North Korean nuclear issue, and must serve Trump's presidential election.In the timetable, all major progress of North Korea's abandonment of nuclear should occur on the eve of President Trump's re -election or the first half of his election process.As long as he grabbed the sanctions in his hands, he could control the development of the situation.So Trump repeatedly said: He is not anxious about abandoning North Korea, as long as North Korea's frozen tuberculosis power and no nuclear guidance experiments.
The above two points are the basic thinking of Trump's basic line. In addition, he also has a major impulse to use the North Korean nuclear to contain China.Because for any power that intends to contain China, the benefits of the Nuclear and its association consequences are objectively conducive to China.North Korea's nuclear centers itself can greatly reduce China's room for action on the peninsula when its interests are damaged, and it is also conducive to the United States to control the Japanese and South Korean allies and achieve its own interests.From the perspective of Trump's behavioral logic since the Sino -US economic and trade war, it should be a high probability to use the North Korean nuclear restraint in China.
In terms of implementing the thinking of the North Korean nuclear line, we should first point to North Korea that its secret ownership of the nuclear test baseThe error that does not report to the United Nations Security Council urges it to implement its denuclearization commitment.
China should also point to the country that the North Korean nuclear is a matter between the UN Security Council and North Korea, and it should be resolved under the framework of the Security Council; the countries designated by the Security Council or the Security Council should participate in the entire process of nuclearization of the peninsula.
At the same time, China should also take out its independent timetable and roadmap for other permanent members of the Security Council to maintain communication and realize its independence and realization of the Korean Peninsula;End the state of war and abandon nuclear advancement.In the end of the Korean War, as a signature country of the temporary suspension agreement and the diplomatic countries of the DPRK and the United States, the qualifications of the Chinese mediation to end the Korean War are the only one.
(Note: The author is a researcher at the Chahar Society and Secretary -General of the International Public Opinion Research Center of the Chahar Society. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.
