If the competition between China and the United States in 5G is open and transparent, it will undoubtedly form an alternative spiral spiral, but if the competition evolves into malicious enclosures, it will be damaged and cracking on the entire industry.
No country is willing to arrest the global 5G market with a $ 12.3 trillion in the next fifteen years.On the 5G battlefields around the smoke, the competition of the four camps led by China, the United States, South Korea, and Europe has reached its heat. With the increasingly improved 5G standards, testing, and actual deployment, competition has tended to be connected with short soldiers.If in the confrontation of the Sino -US trade war, the competition of 5G may be a dark line; US President Trump urgently commented on Twitter to call the backwardness of 5G technology in the United States, which completely highlights the anxiety of the United States in the 5G market.The answer to the strong 5G of China and the United States determines that it is not the trade war to win, but a deeper strategic victory or defeat.
5G in the trade war is the winner of the game of a great country
While China and the United States were investigating the 301 survey at various occasions on various occasions, 5G as the topic floating on the top of the topic comes from the sky -high sanctions by ZTE.After that, the United States pressured China with a clear surface of trade, and the potential target sword refers to the development of Chinese science and technology.The American Intelligence Department warned Americans not to buy smartphones made by Huawei and ZTE being banned from using components produced by American companies. Until the arrest of Huawei's chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou, it completely ignited national emotions.
The United States is good at making trade frictions and repeatedly testing with a stick of 301.In the past three decades of US -Japan trade war, this set of mighty mights has repeatedly tried it.After World War II, a large number of products in Japan introduced American technology and improved and produced were more productive, and occupied a higher market share in the fields of automotive, home appliances, cameras.Intellectual property disputes have become sharp weapons.Due to the lack of core technical competitiveness in Japan, it was defeated in the medium section of trade friction.At the same time, it is painful and painful, and a large number of new technologies and products are invested.The difference between history is that at the moment when the Sino -US trade war started, the United States could not use 301 to combat Chinese 5G technology.
Huawei and others are already the world's leading communication equipment suppliers; more importantly, they have a full set of 5G technology.At the same time, China and the United States realized that the 5G dispute has become the winner of the trade war and even the game of the great power.
5G between China and the United States form a robbery situation, the technical hard core is the first hand
When it comes to the competition of the 5G strength of China and the United States, the hardcore comparison of the technology itself is undoubtedly the top priority. It is the so -called foundation unstable and the building is not solid.The composition of the technology itself is also multi -dimensional and multi -perspective.The 5G hard core covers the radio spectrum (wireless channel), core patents and 5G chips.
In terms of radio spectrum (wireless channels), China and the United States have adopted a completely different distribution method.The domestic spectrum is allocated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. At present, the three major operators have obtained the nationwide trial frequency of the low -frequency band of 5G wireless channels to use license qualifications; the American spectrum is a purely market -based auction or commercial merger.The typical case is that Verizon obtained 76%of the 28GHz spectrum in the United States through two mergers and acquisitions.The distribution of spectrum resources in China and the United States is mainly dominated by the government, and the other is a pure market competition method. The reasonableness of the way of putting aside the method does not talk about it. In terms of effect and efficiency alone, there is no obvious advantage.
The contest of the core patent is undoubtedly a must -fight in this military reserve competition, and it is also a game that plus one and one decrease.
From the perspective of the patent contribution, communication equipment manufacturers, chip manufacturers, and communications operators are all listed. From the official data of EUROPEAN Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI), Huawei, Ericsson, and Samsung in the 5G NR field are 29% respectively., 22%and 20%of the patent proportion ranks at Tier 1, followed by Sharp, Intel, and LG. In the field of new core networks, Huawei has the top 77%of the absolute advantages.It may be too early.
Although there is no obvious advantage in the number of patents in the United States, the quality advantages of patent bands and control in 5G baseband and control are outstanding. Qualcomm's necessary standard patents in this field compared to the high proportion of Chinese manufacturers such as HuaweiOr non -independent networking, it can be bypassed) the quality of the existence, so Qualcomm in the 5G mobile phone market, whether for single -mode or multi -mode mobile phones, can charge high patent costs.
5G communication is actually integrating calculation, storage, and transmission. Both the base stations, terminals and many other devices need chips. 5G chips are a huge family system.gap.Roughly sort out the 5G chip family genealogy. We found that the core network management system needs to be calculated and storage chips. The base station and many devices need dedicated management, controlling chips, and smartphone terminals require calculation, baseband and storage chips.
In the future, with the full integration of 5G and artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things, the demand for inductive chip will also increase significantly.Among them, the calculation chips basically have the main market share in the United States, South Korea, and China. The field of dedicated chips is full of flowers. Each has its own strengths. No one has the right to speak.
In the 4G era, Apple, Huawei, and Samsung have developed their own 4G chips in the 4G era. However, in the 5G era, the pattern is very different. Apple and Samsung may choose Qualcomm, while unique Huawei adheres to the path of self -study.
On the road of technical hard cores, the gap between China and the United States is actually not large, and we cannot be proud and complacent because of the 5G communication standards that have fallen in China, thereby slowing down the efforts.Looking back at the history of the communication network, in the 2G era, we know it; in the 3G era, we have taken the pace of catching up; in the 4G era, we began to want to play the protagonist; and in the 5G era, we have the ability and confidence to be more confident.It should be sought to use hard core capabilities formed by R & D leading the development of the times.
5G scenarios and industrial applications are greater than challenges to China
During the past ten years, the Internet penetration rate of China's Internet has increased rapidly, and the outbreak of the demographic dividend. Combining the popularity of smartphones in the 4G era, the explosive prosperity of the mobile Internet has been achieved, and global expansion is rapidly realized.In the 4G era, due to the outbreak of massive data, the basic computing power was effectively guaranteed, and a large number of Internet companies in China achieved data -driven quantitative operations, and their market value in the capital market also rapidly increased.The most typical is the data -driven Alibaba and the social diversified Tencent.
This is particularly similar to the theory of currency, which continuously increases the supply of currency while increasing or accelerating the turning speed of the currency, and the ultimate value will be increased.In the 5G era, China -US high -tech companies also faced historical opportunities and unprecedented challenges MDash; MDASH; opportunities are that they can achieve the growth of volume index levels through high -speed and low delay underlying networks;With the faster development of their opponents, they surpass themselves.
The characteristics of the 5G era are fast speed, and corporate giants will also experience ultra -low latency when responding to opportunities and challenges.
Due to China's leading in the mobile Internet format, 5G scenes and industrial applications are also expected to lead the United States.In the field of intelligent finance, 5G technology can combine mobile payment to realize that fintech services are almost without latency, and the ultimate user experience is achieved.With the mobile payment customer group accumulated in the 4G era, the smart financial development of the 5G era in China will be more rapid and the harvest is more abundant.In terms of intelligent medical care, China has natural population resource endowments, that is, a huge patient group. This advantage can help 5G technology to quickly apply in the medical field.Due to the continuous sources of demand, a closed -loop effect can be quickly formed.
In fact, China and the United States have taken the lead in the actual combat training of 5G medical fields. China has occupied the opportunity. 5G remote medical hospitals have landed. Experimental of remote consultation, remote B -ultrasound, and remote animal surgery experiments have landed.
In the future, the medical industry will benefit more from 5G everywhere in ChinaThe efficiency of coverage and low latency.From the perspective of 5G cities intelligent, the 5G technology involves the widest and most influential scope. Taking urban monitoring equipment as an example, 5G combines artificial intelligence and marginal computing capabilities, which can fully upgrade the existing existing in terms of industrial, transportation, and public security defense.Monitoring products and its software and hardware equipment, such as sensors, chips, control systems, etc.Although China is not as good as the modern urban agglomeration on the east and west coasts as a whole, the continuously growing urbanization ratio and the rise of urban agglomerations in recent years will accompany the spray effect of 5G technology to produce Chinese -style 5G cities.chemical reaction.
Recently, China has strengthened the concept of the Guangdong -Hong Kong -Macao Greater Bay Area, and officially launched the Guangdong -Hong Kong -Macao Greater Bay Area planning by the National Development and Reform Commission. In the future, it is expected to be based on 5G technology as the underlying infrastructure guarantee.Data centers and cross -border data pilot zones finally realize the construction of smart urban agglomerations.
Of course, China does not occupy an absolute advantage.The landing of 5G networks and technology and the reunification of the industry also need to rely on the integration of basic technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, marginal computing, AR/VR, the Internet of Things, Remote control equipment and other general technology or modules.In this way, we can form a universal or vertical industry scenario solution.When it comes to 5G applications, it may be a familiar application scenario to implement L4 or L5.
In the field of travel, 5G technology and cloud (edge) computing, autonomous driving, artificial intelligence, vehicle networking, and facility networking are combined to form a joint force through OEM, vehicle equipment dealers, Internet companies, telecommunications operators, and government agencies.Under the framework allowed by government laws and regulations, it can quickly realize the interconnection under the Internet of the Internet.
In this regard, the United States has begun to eat market cakes, but China is just sitting.The reason is that the United States has a comprehensive leadership in the field of drones, regulations, other cooperative technologies, and traditional automotive industry.And if China wants to catch up in the field of driverless, it still needs to use the power of 5G to carry out the overall layout of 5G, such as using SA (independent networking mode) to better support future application scenarios such as IoT and driverless driving.
Future route map of 5G competition
Opening competition and win -win coexistence has always been a benign competitive form.In the future competition of 5G in the future, if it is open and transparent, it is undoubtedly a benefit to the benefit of the two parties, which can form a spiral -column -type spiral rising and evolving;Blocking, that is likely to be destroyed and cracking on the entire industry.On this issue, Trump, a Sino -US trade table, has clearly stated that when we treat Huawei, we should achieve mutual achievements from the perspective of competition, rather than deliberately blocking.This allows the world's 5G industry, especially in Europe, which rely on Huawei's products. There is no doubt that there is a sense of relief like boots.
Future technology competition will be the competition of technical clusters.The combination of 5G technology and scenarios and other technologies can realize 5G intelligent applications, and combined with the industry KNOW HOW can achieve the entire industry's 5G intelligence.With reference to the growth path of other high -tech technologies, we guess that the path of competition between China and the United States will go through the improvement of 5G technology, to the deployment of technology, realize the pilot of location or scene, and then fall into the launch of application products in specific scenarios. FinallyGradually began to affect the process of industry and industry chain upstream.
Behind 5G competition is also the system competition.This system includes a full system system formed by the hard specifications and flexible practices.Under the clear system expectations, 5G technology research and development, scene landing, etc. will have clear incentives, and will be more conducive to the overall development of 5G.Take 5G radio spectrum allocation as an example.In the initial period of the industry, especially in industries such as 5G, such as 5G, the gathering and reasonable distribution of resources are the first to be considered.The full market competition in the United States once led to the internal consumption of domestic companies.
The radio spectrum resources obtained after the fierce competition have become a monopoly resource, which has increased the basic cost of 5G development.This is quite similar to the national advantage of the large aircraft industry.
For leading companies in China's 5G industry, the time from 2018 to 2019 brings them beyond its previous exposure, and they are placed under the spotlight countless times.This also marks the gradual acceleration of 5G.In China, base stations are in line with terminals and applications.In foreign countries, we still believe that even in the face of suppression, China's 5G network can gain due business respect, and it will affect the world with China's harmonious and expensive standards.
(This article only represents the author's own point of view. Zhang Yantong is a researcher at the JD Digital Technology Research Institute.