Sun Xingjie: This unrequited meeting shows that the United States is serious on the issue of nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and the timing of the US -DPRK summit is not mature.
The US -DPRK leader Hanoi Summit suddenly ended. Although the two sides left the negotiating table peacefully, this is still a case of a head of diplomacy worthy of repeated research.
The two sides notified the original committee of the failure of the talks for the first time. The statement was different, but there was no fundamental difference, that is, there was no way to talk about the issue of nuclearization and sanctions between the United States and North Korea.EssenceThis result is not surprising to look back, but there are still some experiences and lessons that need to be summarized.
First, the summit summit this time illustrates a fundamental problem, that is, the United States is serious on the issue of non -denomination in the Korean Peninsula.As a prerequisite for negotiations, but it is clear that no nuclearization is the ultimate and completely lifting nuclear military.Prior to the Hanoi Summit, the Democratic Party of the United States and Trump's assistants were worried that the president would be confused on this issue and was fooled by Kim Jong -un.Trump said at a press conference that the main problem was that North Korea requested that all sanctions were lifted, but Genzi still could not take another nuclear facilities outside Ningbian to the negotiating table to discuss.North Korea Foreign Minister Li Yonghao frankly acknowledged at a press conference held late at night that, under such trust conditions, removing Ningbian nuclear facilities was the limit of North Korea in nuclearization.
Therefore, the fundamental problem is that the two sides have no basic consensus in the meaning of non -verification. Of course, it has made great progress when meeting in Singapore.The author once pointed out that although the United States and North Korea met with nuclearization into a common statement after meeting in Singapore, it was different from each other's understanding.
Second, the timing of the US -DPRK summit is not mature.Although the two sides have no evil language for decent retreat, the damage caused is huge.In the 16th century, Italian political scientist Guichadinini had a theory that before the timing matured, any attempt to negotiate not only failed, but even after the timing was available, the possibility of success would become very small.In popular terms, foreign negotiations should not be made into raw rice.Of course, Guichadini's theory is not Kaya, but it is more fit at this Hanoi Summit.Why is the timing so important?First of all, leading diplomacy is the highest -level diplomacy. If there is no possibility of major breakthroughs, then do not meet. If the head of the heads of diplomacy also fails, can you still hope to be able to clean up the endgame?
Therefore, after the summit failed, both the United States and North Korea expressed their willingness to continue to negotiate. It was not so much to cover this failure.After the Singapore meeting, the two parties have not made any breakthroughs in the transaction of non -verification and replacement.A summit testimony is a miracle.
Before the talks, both the US policy representative Bigen and the Secretary of State Pompeo greatly reduced the expectations of the summit progress. In the end, the heads of the two parties also talked about specific transactions on the negotiating table, and even asked the Ningbian.Technical problems such as nuclear facilities are sufficient to explain that from the Singapore Summit to the Hanoi Summit's high -level negotiations and professional diplomat negotiations, no breakthroughs have been made.One of the conclusions is that if the negotiations of professional diplomats are difficult to break through, do not hope that the summit can make a big breakthrough in one or two hours of consultation.
Third, after the Hanoi Summit, the decline in US -DPRK relations is inevitable.We cannot say that the summit was a collapse. After all, the negotiating team of the two parties intended to have a document of the Hanoi declaration, which was only one step away from the end.Practical speaking, half of the people who are hundreds of miles, or 99 degrees of water are not boiling water, and the Hanoi declaration in the abdomen of the abdomen is the semi -proclast.The failure of this failure is the leader of the two sides and the negotiating team.First of all, the optimism prospects of future negotiations are gone; second, the domestic political foundation that supports leading diplomacy is greatly weakened;
In the end, neither Trump nor Kim Jong -un was willing to hold a summit again. The changes in US -DPRK relations are closely related to the diplomacy of the heads. Especially Trump's personal character, from the Singapore Summit to the Hanoi Summit, has a strong Trump color.At the summit, he interrupted the negotiations, at least it shows that Trump also believes that the timing is not mature enough.
Without Trump's persistence, it is bound to look up again for the hardliners.After Trump returned to China, he was not criticized, but was appreciated by the court and the country. The North Korean nuclear issue became Trump's political chip in another way.It can be said that the Hanoi Summit has retained face with each other, but Lizi has broken.
Fourth, human rights issues will continue to get hot in the United States and North Korea relations.Trump's statement on Whambier's issue has stimulated the emotions of the people in the United States.American college student Wambier was sentenced in North Korea and became a vegetative in 2017. He died after returning to China.Trump waited at the airport late at night to return to Whamabir, which greatly enhanced Trump's image.At the Hanoi Summit, Trump also asked Wambier's affairs. Kim Jong -un said he didn't know it. Trump told the media that he believed Kim Jong -un's statement.Wambier was just an example, but before the Hanoi Summit, the US think tank and the media were speculating with the human rights issues of North Korea, asking the president to bind human rights with the North Korean nuclear issue.The questions are raised.
Fifth, the Hanoi Summit is a fierce collision between the US Nuclear Diplomacy and North Korea's DPRK.The Associated Press commented that Trump brought Kim Jong -un to the world stage, and North Korea reached its status in a nuclear country with diplomatic means.
The end of the Hanoi Summit is at least temporarily ended with the US -DPRK summit. However, Trump and Kim Jong -un are not the largest losers. North Korea's nuclear ability has not been damaged, but it has obtained very high diplomatic exposure in one year.Kim Jong -un became a diplomatic star.Trump has repeatedly emphasized that North Korea's freezing tuberculosis experiments have made great progress, and they also throw all the pots to their predecessors. At the same time, Trump also took the opportunity to blackmail South Korea and South Korea bear more military expenditure.Who is the biggest loser?Wen Zaiyin.
(Note: The author is Deputy Dean of the School of Public Foreign Diplomacy of Jilin University. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.
