The latest research report on investment banks pointed out that the US-China Trade Agreement may be announced in the next 1-2 weeks. If it includes the RMB agreement, it will have a positive impact on the RMB.Step.

According to Reuters, Craig Chan, director of Foreign Exchange Strategy in Nomura Global Emerging Markets, stated in its report that market expectations are very different in the US -China trade agreement on the RMB issue, but the market consensus seems to be inclined to think that this currency agreementThe results will increase the yuan.

If the foreign exchange is included in the trade agreement, we are optimistic about the instant impact of the RMB. At the same time, it is expected that the US dollar/CNH transaction scope will go down 6.6, because a wider trade agreement will surprise the market.He said.

The time point for the US-China Trade Agreement is still unknown, but the recent remarks of US President Trump show that it may be announced in the next 1-2 weeks, and then Trump and Chinese President ... may be in Florida in late March in late March ...meet.

Nomura believes that if China and the United States reach an agreement on RMB, they are likely to obtain two results. One is that it may include a free trade agreement similar to the United States and Mexico and Canada, but it may not be enough to completely determine that the central bank's operation exchange rate behavior has been eliminated.The second possibility is that as long as China agrees to maintain a stable RMB exchange rate and not to depreciate the currency. Such an agreement can continue. As long as the trade remittance flow and the inflow of foreign capital will remain strong, it will reach the balance of payments.

However, the risk faced by this political position is that if the external shock or the rapid decline in the local economy will cause domestic capital to accelerate outflow, the increase in foreign exchange in the enterprise, and the slowdown in foreign investment, which may trigger the market to the Central Bank of China Foreign Exchange of the Central Bank of China.Policy credibility concerns, the result of maintaining the stability of the exchange rate is the accelerated consumption of foreign exchange reserves.

Nomura believes that the most impossible result is that China has adopted the RMB appreciation policy, because the renminbi is currently underway.In addition, Nomura China's macro research team continues to predict the weak economic situation in the next few months compared to market estimates, which is another reason for excluding the possibility of appreciation.