According to the analysis of the Guanghua School of Management of Peking University, if China does not promote a more thorough reform and greatly improves the productivity of the whole factor, it may be difficult to achieve the goal of socialist modernization in 2035.
Peking University Guanghua and Peking University Institute of Economic Policy were jointly organized by the economic situation and policy outlook for the two sessions yesterday.Liu Qiao, dean of Guanghua School of Management, said that according to conservative estimates, the realization of socialist modernization roughly means that China's per capita GDP (GDP) will reach 35,000 international dollars from 2035.If you calculate today's purchasing power parity, this is about 12,500 yuan or S $ 25,000.
Many developed countries reached this level 20 or three decades ago, such as the United States (1988), Germany (1998), and Japan (2004).
In 2035, which structural issues need to overcome the per capita GDP of 35,000 ICO?Guanghua launched a study of 40 people to make a report on the China National Development and Reform Commission for the government to formulate a reference on the outline of 2021 to 2025 and the fourteenth five -year planning.
When Liu Qiao introduced the research results yesterday, it was pointed out that in order to achieve the above goals, China needs to increase the full factor productivity including capital and labor to 2.6%to 3%.High -tech United States, full factor productivity is only about 1%.He emphasized that China needs to implement greater efforts and thorough reforms to make the market -oriented power truly dominant factor configuration.
China's labor employment structure needs to be changed.Agriculture contributed only 7.9%to GDP in 2017, but used nearly 27%of the population.In the next 17 years, China needs to do great work in education and public services to achieve more than 20 % of the population from agricultural employment to higher -value industries and service industries.Liu Qiao believes that China must maintain a high proportion of manufacturing and cannot rely on other countries in key areas.
Population aging is a big problem that is urgent to face.Guanghua conservatively estimated that by 2035, the proportion of elderly people over 65 years old will reach 23%, about 370 million people.The current population of China's current population is 37 years old, and by 2035, it is 46 years old.This will challenge the support capacity, labor market, industrial structure adjustment, etc.
How to transform urban and rural structures is another big problem.As more and more people will move from rural areas to cities, how to reform the household registration system, integrate them into the city life, and take care of the elderly who stay in the countryside are issues that must face.
A bottleneck that restricts the high -quality and healthy development of China's economy is the scientific research that seriously lacks basic technologies, so that the basic core technology and core areas cannot form a closed loop of the supply chain.
Liu Qiao pointed out that a very important problem is that China's investment efficiency is low.The return on investment in the A -share market is at a low level of 3%. In order to seek investment scale, investors have to increase leverage.He said: This year's fiscal policy will become more aggressive. Basic investment and infrastructure will be added. How to ensure that investor returns reach a certain level and re -avoid some periodic mistakes that have been committed before. This is a big problem that needs to be considered.
He pointed out that the position of the country's division of labor in the global industrial chain is also the standard for measuring the degree of modernization. China is currently closer to the downstream, unlike the United States controlling many upstream technologies.
Chen Yuyu, director of the Institute of Economic Policy of Peking University, also talked about the problem of full factor productivity.He pointed out that China's full -factor productivity in the past 10 years has decreased by two points compared with the previous 30 years. The decline in the decline in the entire factor directly reflects the low return on corporate capital, especially the advanced investment of state -owned enterprises and local governments.
He said: The folk P2P explosion thunder was 30 billion yuan, which was harmless to China. The real thunder was to transport the funds of the state -owned enterprises each year to the funds of the state -owned enterprises and transport it to the local government.
Asked how to solve the problem of aging population, Chen Yuyu pointed out that China's labor participation rate is already very high, and there is space to encourage late retirement.
