Shen Jianguang: As the most important bilateral relations in the world, Sino -US relations far exceed the category of economic and trade relations; the environment faced by China is different from Japan in the 1980s. The second square agreement is nonsense.
Last weekend, Sino -US economic and trade negotiations have gone through 90 days. After the repeated consultation of the seven rounds of the seven rounds, breakthrough progress has finally been made.Trump announced on Twitter that this was a effective talks and postponed the plan to raise China's exports of commodity tariffs on the United States on March 1.China and the United States have made significant progress in technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non -tariff barriers, service industry, agriculture, and exchange rates.
Among them, the structural reform plan for technical transfer and intellectual property rights has been repeatedly mentioned in previous negotiations, and the expression of consensus on the exchange rate is relatively novel, making many market persons suspicious, and even some critics believe that, there are many critics.Under external pressure, it is actually a new square agreement to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate, similar to the promotion of the yen in the context of the Japanese and American trade war in the 1980s.
However, in my opinion, the Sino -US trade agreement is far from the square agreement.Sino -US trade negotiations can break through many obstacles, avoid intensive trade conflicts, and prevent further conflict between China and the United States, which is not easy to slide into the trap of Xunxione.Judging from the current results of the negotiations, both China and the United States have compromised, and they are looking for a win -win middle area.The United States has not received all the requirements on its negotiation list. The acceleration of China's commitment to accelerate the reform is also objectively in line with the policy direction of the market -oriented reform proposed by the Fourth CPC Central Committee of the 19th Central Committee.In addition, considering that the current domestic and foreign environments facing China have been different from Japan in the 1980s, the second square agreement is nonsense.
Promoting exports to depreciation is not China's option
In this Sino -US agreement, the United States requires that China is inconceivable to lower the manipulation exchange rate and promote exports.The author believes that this clause has a good taste.In fact, promoting exports with devaluation may not be feasible, nor is it China's policy options. Maintaining the relatively stable exchange rate is a requirement for stable finance and one of the long -term policy goals of the Chinese government.
From a fundamental point of view, the current RMB does not have the basis of depreciation.Although the RMB was undergoing depreciation pressure in 2018, since the end of the year, the RMB has already appreciated. With the gradual release of economic underwriting and external risks, the RMB exchange rate has maintained basically stability this year.
In addition, can the depreciation must be boosted?According to historical data, the author has found that the depreciation of the exchange rate and the increase in exports are not one -to -one correspondence. Active depreciation may not necessarily lead to an increase in exports, and it is more related to the actual actual exchange rate.
For example, in the three years from July 2005 to July 2008, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar increased from 8.28 to 6.8, with an appreciation of more than 16%.The export growth rate exceeded 20%, and the average export growth rate of high -tech products reached 29.1%.On the contrary, the exchange reform restarted from August 2008 to June 2010, and the exchange rate of the RMB to the US dollar was stable at 6.83, but the export growth rate of most goods declined sharply due to the economic recession of the importing country.Have one -to -one correspondence.
In fact, the increase or decrease of exports seems to be closer to the economic situation and actual valid exchange rate of importing countries.From January 2005 to January 2019, the actual effective exchange rate of the RMB against a basket of currencies rose from 83 to 123, and the actual appreciation was nearly 50%.In the same period, the growth rate of China's exports dropped from more than 30%to about 10%from a month. The relationship between the two was very obvious.
Furthermore, we must also see that the labor productivity and technological progress of a country, as well as the global industrial division of labor and the convenience of infrastructure, have a greater impact on exports.Forty years of reform and opening up, China has become a world factory from a closed economy. The world's largest exporter is inseparable from various economic reforms, demographic dividends, and technological progress.Essence
The situation in China and Japan is different.
Although many analysts are willing to compare the Sino -US trade war with the US -Japan trade war, in my opinion, the current situation of China in the economic environment, development stage, and comparison with the US market in China in 1985 is obviously different., China -US negotiations have a lesson in front of Japanese and American negotiations. Sino -US negotiations will not repeat the wars of Japan and the United States. The Sino -US trade agreement is far from the second square agreement.
First, the size of the Sino -Japanese market has different impact on the United States.China's economy is huge. In 2018, GDP is equivalent to 70%of the United States, and purchasing power parity GDP has surpassed the United States.During the Japanese and American trade war, Japan's GDP was equivalent to 40%of the United States.At the same time, China's growth momentum has shifted from exports to consumption. Ten years ago, China's retail was only one -quarter of the United States. The size of the Sino -US retail market in 2018 is equivalent. This year, China is expected to surpass the US market. In Japan in Japan in 1985, the retail market in 1985 is only in the 1985 retail market.For one -third of the United States, the retail market is relatively small, and the imported digestive capacity is relatively weak, making the Japanese market less contacted by the United States.
Second, China -Japan's policy choices for the trade war are different.The square agreement is that Japan appreciates the value of the yen and restricts the export scale. China actively opens the market and has a planned expansion of imports from the United States.Ten years after the square agreement, the dollar fell from 1: 240 to 1: 120.The sharp appreciation of the yen prompted the Japanese government to adopt excessive easing monetary policy, which detonated the later bubble economy.The Chinese government has been committed to maintaining the stability of the exchange rate and trying to avoid adjusting trade through exchange rate fluctuations.
Third, opening up the market, deepen reform, and strengthen intellectual property protection are the objective needs of the Chinese economy at the moment.The Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the recent opening -up policies that support private enterprises and financial markets are intensive. Especially at the end of December, the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the deepening reform of the four beams and eight pillars, focusing on enhancing the vitality of micro -subject.To promote related reforms, a new round of reform is expected to exceed expectations. The focus is on deepening the fields of state -owned enterprises, financial, taxation finance, land, market access, and social management.aspect.At the same time, although the current economic growth has slowed down, the policy support has increased, and the statement of the second square agreement is too pessimistic.
Economic and trade relations are still the cockpit stone of Sino -US relations
Just as I do n’t miss the opportunity period of the trade war to cool down and the Trump trade sticks are mentioned in the previous FT Chinese website column article. Trade disputes are not stable for the United States.China has reached a huge demand for reconciliation.Since China joined the WTO in 2001, China's manufacturing industry has jumped to the world's number one. As the center of the world's supply chain and the world factory, many export products to the United States are actually US -funded companies in China and exported to the United States.Trump's threat to all products' taxes will also bring welfare losses to American companies and consumers.
At the same time, there are many uncertainty in the U.S. economic prospects.With the weakening of the base effect of tax reform, the US fiscal policy space has become smaller and smaller, and the US economic growth will slow down in 2019.For example, the US retail data in December accidentally recorded the largest decline in nine years, consumer engines lost motivation, and credit demand slowed down, indicating that the effect of tax reduction stimulus is declining.Since August 2018, the PMI index of the US manufacturing industry has declined significantly, and it has fallen to the lowest value in two years in December.In this case, the Federal Reserve has reduced its economic growth to 2.3%in 2019, and in the January meeting, it was said that it would be patient with interest rate hikes. It is expected that there may be only one interest rate hike or even not raising interest rates throughout the year.In addition, the author believes that the slowdown in the US economic slowdown and the relaxation of monetary policy may cause the US dollar to enter the downward channel, and the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar may stabilize or even appreciate.
The differences and political risks of the United States have also made the Sino -US trade agreement particularly important.Trump has the motivation for re -election in 2020, but the Democratic Party re -elected in the midterm electionAfter controlling the House of Representatives, the contradiction between the two sides continued to upgrade.For example, the deadlock in the border wall in December caused the United States to fall into the longest federal government in history.Although the government's stopping has ended temporarily, Trump is not satisfied with the amount of funding used in the expenditure bill for repairing the wall, announcing that the country has entered an emergency, bypassed the Congress in the figure, and allocated funds from other government departments to build the border wall. Both parties have been distributed. Both parties have been distributed. Both parties have been distributed. Both parties.The conflict is intensified.In addition, the Democratic Party will attack Trump on multiple fronts such as illegal immigration treatment, environmental problems and medical insurance.At the parliamentary and local level, the Democratic Party is very active, inciting populist forces to force Amazon to cancel the plan to build the second headquarters of New York.Based on the background of a number of economic indicators in the United States and the growth of growth prospects, Trump and China have a strong desire to reach a trade agreement.
Sino -US economic and trade relations have always been the cockpit stone of Sino -US relations. The stable Sino -US economic and trade relations are essential for the Sino -US and even global economy.It can be imagined that if the China -US economic and trade conflicts are getting more and more intense, the relationship between China and the United States in politics, diplomacy, and ideology will further deteriorate and even turn sharply.Through the interests of both China and the United States, the agreed agreement between each other, and objectively, objectively maximized the economic and trade demands of both China and the United States. China actively opened the market and promised to increase the imports of American soybeans, crude oil, beef and other products, reduce trade barriers, and strengthen knowledge.Property protection, maintaining the exchange rate stability, etc., in line with the interests of both China and the United States.On the day when China and the United States reached a trade agreement, the global stock market rose to varying degrees.On February 25, the Chinese stock market closed up a significant increase of 5.6%.
Seize the historical opportunity period, Sino -US relations are moved forward in twists and turns
Forty years of reform and opening up, the Chinese economy is in a period of important strategic opportunities for economic transformation, and the time window for the time to deepen the reform of China's valuable reform has been reached.Of course, external pressure is not good, but in fact, strengthening intellectual property protection, improving the degree of opening up, and promoting market -oriented reform were originally the inherent requirements of China's economic development to the current stage.If China transforms external pressure into motivation and accelerates the pace of reform and opening up, it is not only a measure to respond to external risks, but also a key jump for China's pressure to change pressure.
In the long run, the upgrading of the Sino -US trade conflict is only accompanied by China's economic strength to enhance, and China and the United States have entered a game of great powers.Considering the long -term and complexity of the Sino -US game, the differences between China and the United States should be divided into levels and stages in stages.It is necessary to separate economic and trade issues, technical problems, politics, ideology, and even economic system issues.That is, the conflict of economic and trade conflicts between China and the United States is relatively easy to resolve, either win -win or not, and the feasibility of reaching the agreement in the short term is relatively large;In the short term, there will be no significant improvement in the short term, and the frequency of conflicts will increase significantly compared to the past. Last year, US Vice President Pence's speech actually revealed that the differences between China and the United States in ideology and economic systems were greater.This is actually a longer problem.
The future Sino -US relations are not a frank.Before the trade agreement was reached, the market's excessive pessimistic attitude towards Sino -US economic and trade relations was biased, but because of the achievements of historic trade negotiations, we thought that we could have no worry about it.As mentioned earlier, Sino -US relations, as the most important bilateral relations in the world, far exceed the category of economic and trade relations. At the same time, it involves multiple dimensions such as technology, finance, politics, and ideology.Move the whole body.Next year will enter the United States election year. The repetition and uncertainty of Trump's trade policy, the videos of populism, coupled with the rise of China's high -end manufacturing industry and the rapid development of the science and technology field, will have the United States in more fields and deeper.The game between the game, especially in the field of technology and the economic system, is difficult to eliminate, and must be prepared for a long -term war.In short, only to seize the historic valuable opportunity period and expand opening up and deepen reform is the prerequisite for China's stable economic development.It is also foreseeable that the future relationship between China and the United States will still move forward.
Note: This article only represents the author's views
Editor of this article Xu Jin [email protected]
