Society: On the ＂home advantage＂ of the Sino -US trade war

Industrial and Commercial Times Society

The Sino -US trade war has been officially launched for more than half a year. The performance of the war is that in addition to the mutual tariff sanctions and the leading offensive and defense of science and technology on the table, there is another home advantage under the countertop, that is, the initiative to grab the license in Zhuang.President of the United States Obviously, President Trump has made every effort to master this advantage. If the trade negotiations between the two parties have not finished the trade negotiations recently, Trump spoke one -sidedly, saying that it would be delayed that it would be scheduled to increase the time to increase the tax increase in China on March 1st.It also said that the Xi special meeting may be held in the Haihu Manor in Florida, USA in March, and it seems that it is the first to set up a bureau for Chinese leaders.The Chinese side can really take care of this to avoid losing the home advantage; it may be relatively striving for a Xitut meeting at the Boao Forum next month, and invites Trump to talk to mainland China.

A new round of high -level trade negotiations between China and the United States have appeared in Washington, USA since February 21. The meeting period was extended from the original two days to 4 days. HoweverTherefore, the Xitter may be held at a time in March to discuss the final issue of Sino -US trade. The location of the holding may be in Haihu Manor in Florida, USA; this is Trump's private property.

The performance of Trump really puts the host of the host to the extreme, like the leader of the evolution of the Sino -US trade war.In contrast, the Chinese side is weak, and it will inevitably let the outside world think that the Chinese side is in this trade war and is quite passive.

In fact, China does not bother to learn the special meeting, and it has long been prepared.For example, in mid -November last year, the leaders of the APEC (Asia -Pacific Economic Union) were held in Pakistan. Before the meeting, China had prepared to arranges the Xi Special Conference to solve the problem of the US -China trade war early; but Trump was absent from the summit,Participated by Vice President Pence.

At that time, many experts from the outside world interpreted that Trump was absent and avoided China ’s home advantage.Because China has held up the banner of free trade in recent years, and vigorously advocating the Asia -Pacific regional economic exchanges and cooperation and sharing business opportunities, the popularity in the APEC organization is getting higher and higher, and there are already leaders' reputation.Compared with.

In other words, Trump is obviously very obsessed with the importance of the home advantage, and avoids it if he can't master it. This is the boss's mentality.However, although the Xi Special Association failed to be implemented at the APEC Summit, it was not put on hold for too long; 10 days later, it was held on the Argentine Summit at the G20 (Group 20 Group) on December 1 last year.

Trump seems to be considered that the atmosphere of the G20 can help him master the home advantage.Sure enough, at the Argentine Xi Special Conference, Trump showed his gesture and only promised to give China a 90 -day trade war session period, and in a hard tone, he asked the Chinese side to take out the balance that can satisfy the United States within the deadline to make the United States satisfied with the balance of balance.Improvement plans such as trading and cancellation of compulsory techniques, otherwise the United States will increase the tariffs of punishing China ’s $ 2 billion US dollars from March this year to increase from 10%to 25%.

Nevertheless, China does not exclude the period within the period of soldiers, and once again holds a special meeting, and thoroughly talked about the issue of the trade war between the two sides as soon as possible.In this regard, China has recently had the idea of taking a special car of the Golden Society, that is, relevant Chinese officials revealed that Trump can come to Hainan Province to come to Hainan Province before the end of February to meet North Korea Kim Jong Un.However, Trump did not arrange this into its Vietnamese schedule, and released another talk a few days ago, expressing his intention to hold a Xite meeting in Haihu Manor, Florida, USA in March, as mentioned above;Trump has the consideration of home advantages.

The estate in Florida has been held in 2017. At present, is there any need to go there to Trump?If you go, do you get the dark bars of Trump's home advantage?These issues must be cautious.At least, China should propose a relative plan without having to follow Trump's arrangements easily.For example, the Boao Forum for Asia, which is scheduled to appear in Hainan on March 26, is that China can use chips; China can invite Trump to participate in the forum and hold a Xite conference.This forum that has the advantage of China at home, Trump has the courage to attend, and the world will open his eyes to review.

However, strictly speaking, the most important home advantage in the Sino -US trade war is not the scene arrangement of the Xi Special Association, but in the market.Specifically, whoever has a large market size between China and the United States, whoever can take advantage of each other's trade war.In the long run, this principle is the key to trade overcome.

For a long time, the United States has been the world's largest market, but recently, mainland China has shown catching up and overtaking.For example, the amount of imported goods in the mainland last year broke through the two trillion dollars, and it already had the strength to challenge the world's largest imported country in the United States.In addition, some of the city's adjustment agencies EMARKETER recently issued a report saying that the scale of domestic demand in mainland China in 2019 will surpass the United States and become the world's largest.

In this situation, more and more US -funded enterprises will be increasingly unwilling to dance with the Trump's policies in order to protect the business opportunities of the mainland, which will eventually make it difficult for the Sino -US trade war.In the process, as long as the mainland maintains the sustainable economic development momentum, it is expected to be the final winner.The fundamental is that the scale of the mainland's market is continuously expanded and surpassed the United States.The market advantage is the primary home advantage.