Wei Cheng: Taiwanese scholar Lin Zhongbin believes that China ’s launch of the Belt and Road Initiative is that it is the main Eurasian and Africa, but China will not actively stimulate and challenge the United States.
From 1949 to 1979, China fought 6 wars; from 1979 to 2019, the number of war in China was 0.Why?
At the China Development Forum, the London Institute of Economics, which just passed on Saturday (February 23), a PPT of the PPT of the War record entitled by the People's Republic of China on the stage of the audience was displayed to the hundreds of the audiences.At the same time, I used standard American English to ask for self -answers: In the first 30 years, she was fighting because of poverty, backwardness, and difficulties in China. In the following 40 years, as China began to rise, she tried to avoid war.
The old man is Lin Zhongbin, a 77 -year -old Taiwanese scholar.
In fact, he was sitting in my front row before Lin Zhongbin's speech.He and I have never met. I don't know if he is a speaker who specially invited from Taiwan this forum.He started to enter the venue for a while after the forum. He was dressed simple, carrying a backpack. After sitting, he took out a thermos cup from a backpack, unscrew the lid, and poured himself a lid with a hot air.Hot water, drink slowly.I thought he was a ordinary retired elderly man from mainland China (in my impression that only middle -aged and elderly talents from the mainland like to walk around) and come to the UK to visit their children.Listen to lectures on China.Later, I saw him on the podium and heard the host's introduction. I knew that he had been the deputy minister of the Ministry of National Defense and the deputy chairman of the Taiwan MAC, and many important positions., A PhD, has lived in the United States for nearly 30 years, but has not entered the United States, has not entered the United States, has not entered the United States, and has not entered the United States, and has not entered the United States, and has not entered the United States, and has not entered the United States, and has not entered the United States, and has not entered the United States, and has not entered the United States, and has not entered the United States, and has not entered the United States, and has not entered the United States, and has not entered the United States, and has not entered the United States, and has not entered the United States, and has not entered the United States, and has not entered the United States, and has not entered the United States.
The London School of Economics has held the China Development Forum since 2009. By this year, it is already the 11th.The theme of this sub -forum participated by Professor Lin Zhongbin is: Debate on the Belt and Road: Is it China's debt trap diplomacy or a win -win cooperation?Professor Lin's speech title is: the great strategy behind the Beijing Belt and Road Initiative.
The title sounds scary, right?However, Professor Lin came here: He first talked about the different context of the traditional Chinese and Western war: Chinese thinker Lao Tzu in the 6th century BC said that lsquo; Hellip; hellip; as a last resort.rsquo; As China gradually prospered, war became the last choice as one of the foreign policy tools.The most influential Chinese strategist grandson for more than two thousand years said: lsquo;RSQUO; In contrast, the western grandson mdash; mdash; German military theorist Clausetz believes that lsquo; war is the extreme of violence.RSQUO; Lin Zhongbin believes that based on the traditional Chinese traditional war concept that is completely different from the West, China's great strategy in the 21st century is to dominate Eurasia and Africa, and the Belt and Road Initiative is an important part of this great strategy.
During the forum break, I interviewed Professor Lin Zhongbin.When it comes to the words that all parties in recent years have discussed a word that is very fashionable in Sino -US relations mdash; mdash; quot; Xiu Xide trap quot;There are four reasons for the war trap: 1. There are nuclear weapons in China and the United States, and there are no winners in the nuclear war.It is impossible to wipe the guns and go to fire; 3. The world enters the 21st century, the economy is in charge of the economy, and the era when the political or military commander was not returned;
I said in a speech today that in the short term, I am a pessimist. In the long run, I am an optimist.Now that the media talks about Sino -US relations, I always love to make articles in conflict, but as a strategic scholar who studies long -term trends, I don't think that China and the United States must have a battle.He said to me with a smile.
If you think that China and the United States will not happen, do you think the Cold War will occur in China and the United States?I asked him.
The Cold War is already ongoing.It is now the Cold War of China and the United States in terms of economy, trade, technology and other aspects.But Chinese leaders ... in November last year, China said that China does not fight against it, does not engage in the Cold War.He said.China does not want to engage in the Cold War, what about the United States?U.S. Vice President Pence's speech on US -China relations a few days ago was regarded as a declaration of the United States' Cold War in China.I asked.
I think Burns and Trump are doing black -faced and white -faced cooperation.Some of Pence's speech before was not realized.This time, Trump asked Pence to tell the hard words ahead, leaving some room for him.
If the next presidential election in the United States, a Democratic Party president is selected, do you think that Sino -US relations will change?
Professor Lin replied: Trump does not have to be tough for China, but wants to get economic benefits from a tough stand.If the President of the Democratic Party comes up, of course, in terms of some fundamental interests for the United States, he or she will not give back to China, but the practice may not be so absolute and so fierce.Now some American scholars who are close to the Democratic Party have stepped on the brakes on some issues, and all sectors of the United States such as Wall Street have also stated that they should not do too much on some issues, because the interests of the United States have been injured due to the US -China trade war, andIt will be more harmful with the extension of the trade war. Therefore, time is conducive to the slow decompression of the US -China trade war, or even termination, rather than the US -China trade battle that some people say for 15 years., Even 30 years.
I went on to ask: China has far surpassed the United States because of the population scale. In the future, China may surpass the United States as a result in the future. It is undeniable that the American politics is now anxious about this.If it is impossible as you said, the hot war will not work, so can the United States only accept China's total economic surpassing the United States in the future?
Professor Lin thought about it, and then said: In 2004, I said in an interview with the Singapore United Zaobao that China's great strategy is not to fight and the Lord East Asia. Now I want to correct it: China's great strategy is not fighting and the Lord Eurasia., Even the main Eurasian and Africa.Therefore, in this situation, China will not actively stimulate the United States.I believe that China ’s calculation is to slowly exit when the United States has not arrested one day, and China will never use military methods to stimulate the United States.I believe that if China is smart, if China considers her long -term interests, she will get along peacefully with the United States.
Speaking of which, Professor Lin opened the thermal insulation cup and poured himself a lid hot water: As for the future, China surpasses the United States in total in the future, and it is difficult to accept the United States.Sprinkle salt, don't stimulate the United States.The competition in the 21st century is different from the previous competition. The competition in the past is that you die.In 2006, the rise of the TV series of the TV series of China CCTV provided a very good textbook: in the past 500 years, the once overlords have declined later.I believe that the brand left in the minds of Zhongnanhai's leaders must be deep.
At the end of the interview, Professor Lin Zhongbin gave me a close -up day.From the forum to return home, I rumored this book, just to talk about the chapters of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative. Some of them echoed his speeches on the forum on Saturday.P>
In the early 20th century, geopolitical scholars regarded Eurasia as one, and called World-Island.In the 21st century, China launched the Belt and Road Initiative.Although the official text is not seen, in the concept of its strategic strategy, it is paired with the background of modern transportation technology such as high -speed rail, jets, and container ships.This is the future that masters cannot predict and imagine, andToday, we have gradually taken helple; hellip;
In fact, Professor Lin's speech on Saturday's speech was not fighting, and the English English of Eurasiafrica, Eurasia, Eurasia,, Eurasia, and Africa, which is Eurasiafrica. I do n’t know if this is an English word created by Professor Lin himself, but the Chinese translation of the World Island Troupe must be the originality of Professor Lin.
