Qin Yong: Sino -US trade disputes have seven consultations so far. In addition to the substantial purchase of American goods, how much is the trade agreement between China and the United States to reach the United States?Does China's structural reform have something to do with the United States?
On March 23, 2018, US President Trump officially signed a memorandum of trade with China in the White House. It was announced that it would be possible to impose tariffs on US $ 60 billion in goods imported from China.Seven negotiations have been conducted between the United States. China ’s possible concessions are mainly purchasing American products and open China's service industry.How big is it?The United States has always hoped that China can carry out corresponding structural reforms. Does China's structural reform have something to do with the United States?
First of all, China's ongoing structural adjustment is based on the consolidation of traditional industries and liberalized the service industry to promote development.
The United States and other countries are usually accompanied by the decline in the contribution of the manufacturing industry at the stage of transformation of the service industry, but from the global overall, two changes may occur in the manufacturing industry: First, if there is no major economy, the demand of the manufacturing industry is actually actually the demand of the manufacturing industry is actually actually the demand of the manufacturing industry.It is declining; the second is that a large economy has risen, and manufacturing may be transferred.
No matter who the Belt and Road Initiative promoted by China, no matter who has assumed the responsibility of construction, it may actually bring another wave of prosperity of the manufacturing industry.As a promoter, China has been seeking changes in the economic growth of domestic investment. If the Belt and Road Initiative can be recognized by most countries and China has assumed its main investment and construction role, it can be certain that China will use new external direct investment with new external investment.The method is still the model of investment pull, and it has gone through a high growth.
However, the difficulty of this idea is that China's foreign investment grows greatly, which will once again cause a huge surplus of financial accounts. This will not only face the pressure of international relations with dual surplus. Due to the huge amount of investment projects, there will be political intervention. China itself will itself. China itself will be itself. China itself will itself. China itself will itself. China itself will itself. China itself will itself. China is itself. China's own itself willIt also has to be involved in domestic politics of other countries.In this meaning, the Belt and Road Initiative is not a simple economic territory. It is also an opportunity for China to show its international political exhibition.
Although the internal development of China can still rely on infrastructure construction, but the space is relatively limited, it is difficult for China to completely abandon the model of investment pull and move towards the manufacturing industry.On the one hand, state -owned enterprises still dominate the traditional field. To adhere to the leading position of state -owned enterprises, we must strengthen and consolidate the development of state -owned enterprises. It still needs to rely on the traditional economy.On the one hand, most countries have experienced a significant slowdown in economic growth in the process of changing the development of the service industry. ThereforeA series of social planning adjustments; in the end, China chooses more open service industry when facing external pressure. The traditional field involves the problem of government procurement. This is why China has not joined the single trade agreement GPA in the WTO.The attitude of traditional industry protection, but can China's service industry really open?Can the service industry open can promote its development?
Secondly, the logic of China's economy lacks soil in the market economy.
China is currently undergoing the steering of the service industry in a certain sense, reflected in the increase in the proportion of the service industry. However, we have said that the increase in the proportion of service industry has a great probability that it is the decline of manufacturing and a passive sense.Obviously, the increase in the proportion of China's service industry is exactly the end of China's end of the high growth rate. This period was originally seen in 2008, but because China's macro leverage rate was low at that time, and China's rapid industrialization was only underway.In the past ten years, the government let go of the 4 trillion fiscal stimulus plan, but the government -led investment has two disadvantages. The first is to first choose a mature investment direction, that is, take the old road. This will not only correct the pastIncreasing investment will only raise leverage in the short term. At the same time, the economy itself needs to digest these leverage investment for longer. Therefore, in recent years, the home appliances have been implemented to the countryside, automobile subsidies, and real estate destocking in the third and fourth -tier line.The role is to grasp the production in one hand and sell it with one hand.
The second is that the government needs to help new leverage to find new financing channels. We have seen that since the financial crisis of China, we have created tools for urban investment bonds, shadow banks, and local special bonds to solve financing needs.The role of the government is to open the gate and close the gate. Due to the government -led, these debts cannot be market -oriented. In essence, the current situation of the government, enterprises and bank iron locks.In terms of form, the local government has the debt burden of the local government's responsibility for repayment, but other debt still either binds the bank or binds a listed company. The former forms a huge risk of shadow banks.Saihu, banks and capital markets are now important battlefields to resolve financial risks in China.Seeing the demolition of the Chinese government, it seems that it shows better control over the economy than the Western economy, but it is a very complicated thing to compare analysis. We can look at it from several levels.
What is the essence of economic development?The essence of economic development is not a clear topic at a glance, because the overall development of the economy, it can be certain that the overall welfare of society is improved, but there are two problems: first, the problem of efficiency and fairness.The situation of the situation is relatively worse, and the problem of unfair allocation will be highlighted.Of course, the improvement of absolutely cannot be ignored, but when economic development only focuses on efficiency, this mechanism will lack the ability of self -correction, because the improvement of economic conditions is either a product of improvement of social status or improves social status. In shortThe influence on social policies is improved.Therefore, society that pays attention to social fairness often often reflect on social efficiency problems, and society that pay attention to social efficiency rarely take care of social fairness.The second is that efficiency and fairness should not be used for short -term choices, but long -term balance should be done. Short -term deviation efficiency may achieve rapid economic growth, but it may cause social class solidification. In the long run, it is a great waste of human capital of society as a whole.In the long run, social development should ensure the balance of efficiency and fairness in the system. It is reflected in economic growth to sacrifice a certain degree of high growth rate, ensure the accumulation of long -term human capital, and the driving force for long -term social development.
Is economic development the only criterion for evaluating government power and responsibilities?Even the standard?The Chinese government proposes the concept of development rights in the international community. This concept itself has no problem. It is the design of interest balance and concession between international countries and countries.There is also a dispute between development rights within the country. The development rights between the internal groups of the country and the realization of the development rights balance mechanism should be placed before development as a standard and bad standard for standardized development.
If economic development can be controlled by the government, then the planned economy must be at least one of the best economic development models.But we think there are two challenges: First of all, is there a regular plan economy?The planned economy reflects the subjective color of people's victory, and its laws are the turbulence of social cycle caused by subjective imagination and reality conflict.The planned economy in history exists in a small number of highly centralized society. China's current economic system has a large marketization, but the political foundation of centralized unified leadership and the economic foundation of state -owned enterprises as the main body determine that there is still a lot of planning colors.For example, our five -year economic planning, clarify what kind of growth to achieve the economy, all the resources and rules of the country use this as the command stick, and the policy has clearly achieved the goals and the rules of overkill.Secondly, in a more common sense, what is the law of economics?A very serious problem is the economic phenomenon that promotes the development of economics theory, or is the economic theory that promotes the development of the economy?Economics has always been developing, but it is difficult to form a consensus from the discipline of the birth of economic phenomena. As far as the state's macro leverage rate is concerned, although it is generally believed that high leverage means low efficiency of funds, but it also also believes that the funds are inefficient, but they also alsoThere are economies with macro leverage like Japan that continue to be highly high. This exception provides a strong space for economic policy to play subjective imagination.Therefore, the law of economics is very large -proceedObjective to economic development.
Finally, the market mechanism is the cornerstone of the service industry, and it is difficult to open the service industry in terms of nominal opening.
The development of the service industry requires the solid cornerstone of the market economy, and the key to the market economy is to acknowledge that economic development has its inherent laws, to change the criteria of the government with economic growth, thereby changing the role and responsibility of the government in the economic development process.Only by changing development ideas and serving economic participants in order to create an environment suitable for the development of the service industry.The government provides services to provide the same institutional foundation as the economic entity.
At present, China -US trade disputes are difficult for China to provide a fair competition platform for foreign investment (Chinese private enterprises). Although state -owned enterprises who dominate the position are also the main body of the market, it is difficult to define their relationship with the government, so it is very very very very very related to the government.It is difficult to rule out their unfair competitive position.Therefore, we see that in the case of a large number of service industry deficit, we still expect to further let go of the service industry. The main thing is the financial field. This reflects that China's financial field is the most market -oriented industry in all industries. On the other hand, on the other hand,It also represents the expectation to guide foreign investment to abandon the competition with state -owned enterprises in traditional areas and turn to a more concentrated service industry in the private economy.
The service industry is a product of developed market systems. The attributes of goods are relatively easy to define and identify. Disputes can be handled in accordance with the laws and countries reached between countries and countries.Because the product itself is difficult to define, the protection of consumers of service products is largely reflected in the regulation of the operation process of the service industry.
For a few obvious examples, the legal constraints of the financial service industry in developed countries are very strict, including restrictions on employees, restrictions on listed companies, restrictions on regulators, and government behaviors that provide public services.Some regulations may conflict with the domestic laws of the country affiliated with financial industry companies. In the rules of strictly obeying the law, in fact, the law is completely fully turned into the competitive disadvantages of these countries.For another example, the medical industry, now the definition of serious doctors in China and the definition of medical accidents is related to the lack of related systems such as relief. The medical industry also includes the specifications of clinical medical experiments.IntersectionThis does not mean that China's gene editing research is ahead, only to indicate that the Chinese medical industry is seriously lacking basic ethics, and it has become an opportunity for irregular operations. System loopholes are the biggest sources of unfair competition in the service industry.The most serious thing is that when the legal services seek after the dispute itself, the obstacles of legal services are not only the different legal system, but also the huge pondering of legal practitioners. In addition to lawyers, Chinese legal services are also services provided by the government.How to ensure the independence and supervision of the service is a major challenge.
Due to the lack of consensus on the nature and goals of economic development, it is difficult for China to establish a market mechanism required for the development of the service industry. Therefore, although we promise to be more open to the service industry, it may be difficult to achieve the in -depth opening of the service industry.The service of sex purchasing may increase, but this also requires the Chinese government to keep their promises in compliance with intellectual property protection.Based on this understanding, we believe that Sino -US trade friction will be a long -term long -term war. At present, the United States may also be more and more realized that although the trade deficit is closely related to China's structural adjustment, structural adjustment determines whether China really strengthens China in ChinaAnd maintaining market mechanisms and China's unique economic development ideas, forcing trade frictions on the economy of China and the United States, and even the global economy is undergoing a negative impact, and may still reach a framework; on the other hand, the United States also understands that if you can't see it, you can't see it.The establishment of the Chinese market mechanism has clarified the relationship between the market and the government, and the agreement may have a small effect on improving the situation of American companies in China.The friction at the corporate level is difficult to rise to the national level, so this Sino -US trade dispute may affect the market's hearts from time to time in the future.
(Author is a senior macro analyst at the Assets Management Department of Pacific Group. This article only represents the author's point of view. Responsible editors: [email protected])
