Hu Yuexiao: What is the difference between Chinas capital market in 2019?

Hu Yuexiao: Since 2019, the continuous rise in the Chinese stock market is not an automatic evidence caused by the rise of people's minds, but the result of comprehensive changes in economic, policy and market itself.

Since 2019, the rainy weather in Shanghai has continued, and the meteorological department is said to be a century.In the continuous rain, the Chinese CSI Composite Index rose from the beginning of the year at the beginning of the year, and there was still no signs of stopping at 2800 points on Friday.The market is generally expected that in the early years of the Chinese stock market for more than a month, although about 15%of the increase has been recorded, the improvement has just begun, and the rise process is far from end.According to the five elements of China, the water is wealth. This year coincides with the heavy rainwater, and the monetary policy is also accompanied by the relaxation of the margin. On the occasion of the unity of heaven and man, the market will naturally rise.

This is of course a pretty language, but the saying of rain, more wealth, and stock market rising reflects the strong bullish expectations of the market.The market expects will not automatically confirm. This year's confirmation is actually the result of comprehensive changes in various factors, that is, the continuous rise in the Chinese stock market since 2019 is not the expected evidence of the rise of people's minds, but the economic, policy and market itself itselfThe result of comprehensive changes.The author believes that the following changes in 2019 determine the general trend and pattern of continuous recovery of China's capital market in 2019.

First of all, the Chinese economy will go out of the bottom of the 6 years in 2019.As early as 2012, the author proposed that during the transition period, the Chinese economy will go through a period of long -term and about 5 years.The reason is that the rectification stage brought by China's economic upper step needs to complete the deep -seated changes in economic changes such as growth power conversion, changes in operating mechanisms, and changes in development methods. Therefore, the Chinese economy needs to go through a long period of time.The bottom of the bottom.

From the perspective of economic growth momentum, economic transformation is the process of the economy's initiative to convert the power of old growth to the new growth momentum.During the transformation process, the cultivation of new growth momentum is usually slower than the abandonment of the old growth momentum. Therefore, economic transformation must be accompanied by the decline in economic growth MDASH; mdash; the three different stages of the pioneering MDASH; mdash;Throughout the transition period, the economic growth rate will have two inflection points and two transition periods.

Since the Chinese economy entered a flat stage in 2012, it has been running steadily at the bottom for 6 years. From the evolution of the international economic pattern and the evolution of the domestic economic operation pattern, the changes in economic factors such as growth momentum and economic structure. China's economyIn 2018, the end of the bottom of the bottom.In 2019, based on the certainty of China's economic investment recovery prospects and the accelerated storage of new regional economic growth levels, the Chinese economy will start a departure journey and go out of the bottom period that has continued for 6 years.

Secondly, the focus of the division policy has evolved, and the monetary environment has improved into a bureau.Since 2014, China's macro -control system can be comprehensive as a supply -side reform.The content of the supply -side reform is three to one -to -one and one supplement. Although the scope and connotation remain unchanged in the macro explanation of the government, the focus of policy and the focus of governance have evolved with the changes in the economic situation and the international environment.

Looking back at the supply -side reform process, it is clear that the policy of supply -side reform focuses on de -capacity, de -inventory MDash; mdash; deleveraging mdash; MDASH; supplementary shortcomings.Dewing capacity and destocking are the focus of the starting work of supply -side reform. At this stage, the centered on excess capacity management is centered. The time is roughly proposed from the supply side reform until the first half of 2016;

From the second half of 2016, the focus of the policy has obviously entered the deleveraging phase, and the financial market fluctuations have also risen simultaneously. Starting from the fourth quarter of 2018, the supply -side reform has entered the third stage. Infrastructure investment is the main content supplement shortcomings to be raised on the negotiations.The schedule and the implementation.

The economic continuous bottom of the economic transformation has increased the difficulty of the daily operation of enterprises, and the increase in the importance of infrastructure investment has naturally become the focus of supply -side reform.When the derivation phase passes, the relaxation of the currency's margin has actually been presented; the supply -side reform center of the supply side in the next stage mdash; MDASH; reduction of costs.After entering the policy horizon, interest rate cuts have become an indispensable policy option in the future, so the improvement of the future monetary environment will continue.

Third, new progress has been made in risk prevention and control, and macro -risk control is greatly enhanced.Risk prevention is the focus of economic work in 2018 and 2019.At present, the risk points in macroeconomic operations are mainly risks in the property market bubble, financial markets (stock pledge, goodwill, etc.), and the risk of breach of contract for credit markets.In China's supply -side reform system, although the focus of work at different stages is different, the central position of deleveraging has not changed.The emphasis on excessive macro leverage has enabled the specific economic regulatory authorities and operating entities to attach great importance to risks, and the characteristics of risks are that everything you notice often does not really happen.

Specifically, the mayor of the mayor of the building has a squeezing and unbreakable facts for the bubble of the property market. With the risk of financial market operation, with the efforts of industry supervision departments and economic management departments, the market not only resists the impact, but also basically basically, but it is basically basically.Effective progress has been made, and various risk exposure to various types of risks has been compressed to varying degrees in the market. For the increase in credit breach of contract, the market has gradually realized that as most Chinese industries enter the mature period, the changes in the industry's market structure will inevitably inevitably change the changes in the market structure of the industry.Bringing business differentiation is precisely the increase in the changes in this industrial cycle. The increase in scattered breach of contract, that is, China's credit default is not a periodic system default, so it has less contagiousness and has a limited impact on the credit market.

Finally, the IPO dammed lake was basically eliminated, the new regulations for reducing their holdings and repurchase were built into a system, and the impact of the expansion of capacity was relieved.Compared with the trend of the Chinese and foreign capital markets after the financial crisis, especially Chinese investors are confused: from 2009 to 2018, the American Dow rose from 9000 points to 25,000 points, the Nasda Index rose from 1550 points to 6,600 points, the S & P 500 rose from 900 points to toAt 2600 points, if it was not adjusted at the end of 2018, the increase would be amazing.

Compared with the economic situation of China and the United States, although China's economic growth has made a step down, it has not stagnated, the downlink is orderly, the decline in the growth rate is the normal performance during the transformation of the economic upper step, and the quality of economic growth has been continuously improved.The rise is also a normal phenomenon during the transformation and upgrading MDASH; MDASH; the market economy is to promote industrial upgrading and progress through competition. Without pressure, which motivation for corporate progress?The so -called strong and stable U.S. economy is just recovering normal. From the change of currency multiplication of the financial system function, its financial system function has not yet recovered to half of the normal values before the crisis, indicating that the financial crisis's damage to the US financial system has not so far.Completely recovered.

Because of its insufficient economic power, American companies have adopted universal repurchase and privatization behaviors under the environment of currency loose environment, which has significantly increased the equity trend in the US capital market.

Studies have shown that currency loose and market interest rates have caused US stocks to shrink about 1.5%per year; from 2009 to 2017, the S & P index repurchased 4.5 trillion, accounting for about 1/3 of the market size in the same period. At the end of 2017The total scale of the S & P index market is only over 16 trillion even after rising.Therefore, the rise in the US stock market depends on shrinking stocks, not the leading global economy.

In order to solve the problem of IPO dammed lakes and solve the financing needs of enterprises, the number of IPO households from 2015-2018 is 223, 227, 438 and 105. In addition, other stocks such as additional issuance are added.In the environment of tightening sexuality, the impact on the market has increased.Obviously, from the perspective of the trend, with the decline in the water level of the IPO dammed lake and the regulatory regulatory regulatory regulation of the ex -issuance behavior, China's expansion has slowed down after 2018, and this process will continue after 2019.

(The author is a researcher at the East China Normal University China Financial Research Institute. This article only represents the author's point of view. Editor in charge of the email: [email protected])