Lin Yuan
The United States' special representative of the policy of the North Korea's policy on January 31 gave a speech at Stanford University on January 31. It revealed that the United States might make concessions to North Korea in the following aspects: First, it will provide part of the consideration before North Korea has no denuclearization;The starting point of North Korea ’s comprehensive application for large -scale lethal weapons is the starting point of its nuclearization process; third, the United States is preparing to issue a Declaration of Final War as a consideration with North Korea.
In terms of concessions in the first aspect, the United States has changed the position that once claimed to provide a consideration after the North Korea is completely denumedized; in the second aspect, the United States provides a comprehensive nuclear declaration in North Korea;In terms of concessions, the United States may agree to issue a Declaration of Final War as a consideration in exchange for North Korea's abandoned Ningbian nuclear facilities.
It can be seen that in order to make the US -DPRK negotiations progress, the United States may make important concessions, while North Korea adheres to its tough position on key issues, such as on the issue of nuclear declarations.In this case, the possibility of the second US -North Korea summit should not be ruled out, but there are also variables.In particular, North Korea seems to have regarded the cancellation of economic sanctions as the most important consideration that the United States can provide, which is inevitable.The United States will not easily concessions on the issue of sanctions.Bagan also mentioned in the Stanford University's speech that the United States would not cancel sanctions before North Korea's nuclearization was completed.
However, is the US recently on the issue of the Declaration of Final Battle?Bagen said in the speech that Trump and him are convinced that the time to end the 70 -year war and hostile state of the Korean Peninsula has no reason for this conflict to continue.However, it is necessary to point out that the Declaration of the Final War is one of the main chips of the United States in negotiations. It should not be easily exchanged before North Korea provides important and sufficient consideration.
Last time, Trump announced that he would stop the US -South Korea military exercises in Singapore, which was a goodwill for North Korea.However, it is reversed to stop military exercises and can recover if necessary in the future.Whether the Declaration of the final battle is reversed. Before North Korea completely abandoned the nuclear (and even the key steps of abandoning the nuclear), this declaration is issued, what kind of information to the world is to consider it carefully in the United States.
In order to discuss this problem more in -depth, what is the external cause of the strategic route that promoted the Kim Jong -un regime since the beginning of 2018?It is generally believed that the international community has played a main role in North Korea's economic sanctions.However, in addition to economic sanctions, the US military pressure and even the diplomatic isolation of North Korea also play a certain role.
If the United States wants to promote North Korea to go further in the process of denuclearization, it may not be appropriate for the military pressure of the North Korea to completely give up (or almost completely give up).However, it should also consider achieving a certain balance between maintaining appropriate military pressure and eased tensions on the Korean Peninsula.At present, the United States has stopped the United States and South Korea's joint military exercises. If it has issued a final declaration declaration with North Korea, South Korea, etc., and even officials (including Bigan) publicly announced that the United States does not intend to attack North Korea or seek subverting North Korean regime. These may not help. These may not help. These may not help. These may not help.The United States maintains a moderate pressure on North Korea.
For the United States, the most important thing is not North Korea's abandoned Ningbian nuclear facilities, but it submits a complete nuclear list (large -scale killing weapon list).Regardless of the relaxation of economic sanctions or issuing a final declaration, it should be submitted after North Korea submitted a complete nuclear list.North Korea's refusal to submit a complete nuclear list is actually difficult to prove whether it is sincere and completely abandon the nuclear.Before North Korea submits a complete nuclear list, it is only necessary to assume that its goal is not completely nuclear, but the nuclear frozen and abandoned nuclear facilities.
On October 2 last year, the North Korean Society pointed out in its comments that Ningbian nuclear facilities are the core facilities of the heart of the North Korean nuclear plan.However, why would North Korea rather abandoned Ningbian nuclear facilities permanently and did not want to submit a complete nuclear list?This may show that North Korea is actually unwilling to completely abandon the nuclear, or it means that the Ningbian nuclear facilities are not so important, and the previous speculation is more worthy of attention.
Even though North Korea seems to be too valued at the final declaration of the final battle, the United States should not easily concessions on this issue, especially before the North Korea should not be submitted to the complete nuclear list.Because the possibility of submitting the list at the Second US -North Korea Summit is very small, the United States may take a more cautious position on the issue of the final battle declaration.As for exchanges to expand humanitarian assistance to North Korea, the establishment of the US -DPRK liaison office, and the development of US -DPRK culture, these are the considerations that the United States can provide provided by the United States before submitting a complete nuclear list in North Korea.
The author is a scholar, a doctor of history
