Current affairs perspective
On the occasion of the world all over the world, US President Trump published a national information on February 5th to talk about the country's unity and politicians to let go of the party's differences, revive the greatness of the United States, and implement the governance goals;Wen attacking martial arts frightened the opponent to donate before the abandonment, and he heard its flute and danced.
In the next year, the special instability factors may continue to sweep the world, redefine international political and economic landscapes, and redefine the rules of international game rules. The first to be a possible rush is possible.
It is about 83 minutes long. There are two key points of the Guoqing Counseling speech with the theme of choosing a great theme. The first is to require the two -party interest to fight for unity and work hard for the United States.The requirements of the eagle faction have not changed the core requirements and toughness of China.
These two key points are connected with each other, and the preferred United States is the real axis. It shaped the trend of the world, forcing the domestic Democratic Party and the world headed by China to bow their heads and help reduce the re -election election before the election election.The risk of economic recession in the United States.
As an interested re -election, Trump does not show off his economy and diplomatic performance, expands attacking opponents, consolidates the basic disk, and states that as long as it is united, he can break the political deadlock for decades, bridges differences, cure wounds, establish new newThe alliance reached an agreement to open the extraordinary future of the United States in the future.
Is it Yefei?It is not important. Because of this national situation, it is obviously a self -advertised ruling program and transcript, which is a flexible essay pre -issued by the election campaign next year.Whether the Democratic Party and the American voters are obediently touched, because they are in the United States in the United States, outsiders cannot be pecked, but the Sino -US trade war will affect the two countries, and the surrounding small and medium -sized countries that are close to the markets of the two countries, causing the global economy in 2019 to be nervous.And helpless.
Trump has always believed that China has caused a huge trade deficit in the United States, loss of jobs, and industrial movement in the United States. In its office, the first national security strategy report is named.Values and wealth, therefore set off a trade war on China unilaterally. From the increase of tariffs, to severely punish ZTE, arrest Huawei Princess and the New Eight Kingdoms coalition forces, etc., The crossroads of the New Cold War.
There have been many crises in the 40 years of Sino -US relations. Some crisis are more crisp than the present, and when both sides are dealt with, they are trying to control the control and let the problem be overflowed.It has been promoted to the highest level of national power. Each contradiction will be politicized and strategically, and the three -dimensional type of China will be launched in China.
As for the special U.S. priority policy, as long as the signed trade agreement does not meet the interests of the United States, or the United States does not get the maximum interests, it must be modified, and it can be changed.Under this principle, the United States has successively withdrawn from the Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), and re -signed the North American Free Trade Agreement, restarts the negotiations between the US -South Korea Free Trade Agreement, and plans to discuss a number of bilateral or multilateral agreements with multiple countries.In this year's national information, Trump mentioned China four times, three of which were about the trade war, and another time involved a medium -range missile treaty.
After more than a year of punch, Sino -US relations have entered a period of adjustment. This adjustment period will determine the future new direction of the new Cold War and the impact that other countries will bear.
First, there are still many significant differences in the key issues such as market access, technological transfer, and even economic development models. In addition, the special talks with special talks, while adding code and anti -mouth negotiations. Sino -US relations are turbulent.The potential will last for a while, and the future negotiations will definitely be folded and the branches will be rampant. In addition to trade disputes, there are still a lot of asymmetric problems in bilateral relations.For chips, other countries must make forward -looking planning early to reduce the fish of pond fish.
Secondly, under Pan -Public Politicalization, even the first diplomacy of China and the United States has become political props.The Trump administration continued to release the expected expectations of the Xitut will sign the agreement to the US market earlier, and then announced that the possible Xi special will be disappeared under the unbalanced warning.Exhaust the risk of its economic and commerce.Of course, if the situation is distorted, the political impact on countries will be extremely severe.In the face of risks, other countries cannot be beaten passively, but should take the initiative to choose the side station and make related response.
Third, regardless of the results of the negotiations between China and the United States in the future, the market security and stability in the future will be greatly reduced, and the global industrial chain will be moved out of China one after another. Southeast Asian countries are lower than China due to labor and production costs.Middle and low -end parts.How to seize this historical opportunity is the key to rising the wind and the opportunity of crisis changes.
Fourth, a report issued by the United Nations Asia -Pacific Economic and Social Affairs Committee at the end of last year pointed out that the continued heating of the Sino -US trade war may lead to the slowdown of global trade this year, and the export growth rate is estimated to drop from nearly 4%this year to 2.3%, and the Asia -Pacific region may be possible.9 million people were unemployed.The report issued by the United Nations Trade and Development Conference (UNCTAD) earlier this month also pointed out that if China and the United States fail to reach a consensus on the resolution of trade disputes as scheduled, some countries will force some countries to protect themselves based on self -protection, and also follow up trade protection measures.To stimulate exports, promote the occurrence of currency wars, and have a significant negative impact on the world.
The author is the president of the Hong Kong Professional Association
