Author: Zhang Deng and

Earlier this month, the US Secretary of State Pompeo announced that the United States officially launched the procedure for the United States and Soviet destruction medium and short -range missiles (referred to as the central guidance treaty) signed by President Reagan and General Secretary Gobachev in 1987.Since President Trump came to power, the retirement behavior under the leadership of the United States' first concept has been withdrawn from the Cross Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), the Paris Climate Agreement, and UNESCO.And after the Cold War, the actions of US unilateralism did not begin with Trump. Before President Bush launched the second Iraq war, there was also an important refund operation, that is, withdrawing from the United States and the Soviet Union signed in 1972 in 2002The reason for the anti -ballistic missile treaty was to prevent people from being attacked by terrorists and rogue countries.

The author agrees that ElioT A. Cohen, an important staff member of the United States, Eliot A. Cohen, at the beginning of the year, "The Long Farewell in the United States", that is, the Trump authorities have retired from the group., But this style can only blame him.As early as last spring, the Financial Times also commented on Trump's Middle East strategy based on the title of "The United States' Long Farewell to the Middle East".It is rather, these are the long -term trends of Washington's strategy. It has the deep reasons for the differential differentiation of the United States society, and it will have a profound impact.Because of this, in the theory of international relations, the transformation of US hegemony, the possible crisis and traps of power transfer, and the appearance of the future world order have been the most striking international political topic in the past 10 years.The author believes that the starting point of this long process is that the United States withdrawn from the anti -commissioned treaty in 2002, and the exit of the China Guide Treaty will be true, symbolizing that the post -war international order is on the verge of turning point.

Anarchy is the biggest difference between international politics and domestic politics.However, the state of no government does not represent confusion, and it is not a endless conflict.The foundation of the world order is orderly anarchy, which is essentially a guidelines for behavioral behaviors that are balanced with power, manifested as self -restraint of national actions and wars without eruption.In this way, although there is no unclear and blind spots for the war of the agent and the small domestic war between the great powers, it is already the maximum balance of pragmatism and ideal.

The international order we know is the reputation of the post -war order.Although it experienced the competition of the Soviet Group, it created the long -term peace of the historian.With support, it was gradually implemented in the system specifications of the United Nations and the Blinton Forest System, and finally won.In this long competition, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, and the Afghanistan war have been falling. The key to peace is that the United States and the Soviet Union can maintain restraint when facing the crisis. Through bilateral and multilateral arrangements, they suppress the dangerous competitions in the military field.At the end of the Cold War, the advantages of the United States are obvious, and the major powers can also use new and old systems such as G8 and G20 to reluctantly maintain the consistency of great powers.After the war, the economic miracles of East Asia's emerging industries, successful reform in China, and even the rise of India and ASEAN.

However, how to maintain the distance between the prosperous and declining, and how can Kang Long regret that it can maintain the distance from the driving person, but also resist the temptation of the lonely way, it cannot only rely on printing the US dollar and setting up the base, but also wisely operates.And the cooperation of domestic and foreign conditions.Exit the anti -missile treaty symbolizes the overhead of the hegemon to overestimate its own strength. It is believed that the country's technology is far ahead, and the new order does not require other major powers to work; the exit of the China Guide Treaty symbolizes the overwhelming responsibility.maintain.Both actions are unilateralism, and they hope to seek the greatest advantage at the least cost. The difference is too much.Adjust the previous time, the Democratic Obama has begun to have a strategic contraction, but maintains its commitment to order and allies.Trump seems to have changed Obama's cowardice. In fact, he even requires allies to take responsibility. In order to ensure the absolute interests and relative advantages of his account book, trade with North Korea and Tariban does not need to cover up.

Whether the Trump strategy can succeed, of course, it is still unreasonable.However, in any case, the three pillar concepts of the post -war and a complete international system established by the aftermath are being deconstructed, and it is no longer a mysterious.We do not have to follow the master who said goodbye to Taiwan to mourn the disillusionment of free international order, but it must experience solution and group.When the United States is still in the fog of who is hooligan and who is the opponent, small and medium countries are not qualified to claim that the winning coupons are holding.How to make great powers trying to restrain themselves when exploring, it should be the biggest feedback and achievement of the world's order that can contribute to the world.

(The author is a professor at the Department of Political Science, the National Taiwan University)