China and the United States have just completed a new round of trade negotiations in Beijing. Although they have not reached a substantial agreement, the news after the meeting is preferred, and the opportunity to reach an agreement between the two countries is increasing.However, even if China and the United States can shake hands, it does not mean that the day of light (refers to the clouds and fog, and the hearts of the world). Investors must also pay attention to the weakening of the economic growth of China, the United States and Hong Kong.
Although foreign media refer to that there are still a lot of differences in trade negotiations between China and the United States, especially in China's economic structural reform, forcing technological transfer, and implementation of trade agreements, we must know that the United States has launched the main purpose of this trade war.It is to reverse the huge deficit of trade in China to show Trump's commitment to perform his campaign.At the beginning of trade negotiations, China had bought American soybeans. It is reported that China also agreed to buy nearly $ 20 billion in semiconductor products in the United States.Yi must also pay.Therefore, as long as China agrees to reduce the huge trade surplus to the United States, even if there are still many differences in each other, there are still expected agreements to stop the trade war.
Sino -US economic growth power reduction
However, the economic growth of both China and the United States is slowing, and investors cannot take it lightly.Earlier, although China announced the economic growth of the previous year, although there were 6.6 %, higher than the 6.5 % expected at the beginning of the year, it was the lowest growth in 28 years.Weaken.Earlier, the mainland official media estimated that this year's growth was only 6.3 %, which can be understood as the official air -to -winding and decompression for the economic slowdown.
Another point to confirm that the economic slowdown is the Index (PMI) of the Mainland Manufacturing Purchasing Manager (PMI). Regardless of the official PMI and the financial new PMI reflected in small and medium -sized manufacturers, they are already on the contraction line of 50 o'clock. This forward -looking indicator reflects future manufacturing in the future manufacturingThe industry is still in trouble.
However, there are not many fiscal and monetary policies that the Mainland can use, and people can reduce the deposit reserve ratio, but the effectiveness of the economy is not significant.In addition, local debt is high, and the central government's deleveraging work has not been completed. The monetary policy cannot be too loose to avoid the rebound of debt.The central government also shows that it will no longer engage in economic measures to stimulate the stimulating economic measures. Therefore, the financial and monetary policy can not be done. It can only slowly complete the economic downturn and regain the motivation.
As for the United States, the economy is also fatigue.Last week, the retail retail in December last week fell by 1 %, which was the worst in nine years, reflecting insufficient local consumer purchasing power and confidence.As for the number of newly applied for unemployment relief last week, the number of people increased by 230,000, which was more than expected, and it also reflected the weakening of the employment market.
US debt disputes to set off market fluctuations
In addition to the weakened economic power, the United States has a dispute between republican and democratic parties. The dispute over the construction of the Mexican fence has been stopped because of funding.When Trump signed the funding bill last week, he announced the emergency order and mixed funds to build a fence. The Democratic Party had stated that he had a legal challenge, and the lawsuit would block the government's operation.
In addition, the upper limit of US Treasury bonds will take effect on March 2nd this year. If the two parties cannot be raised, the trend will affect the US government's debt issuance and debt capacity. Once the debt is repaidTreating a new round of financial crisis.In the future, when negotiating the upper limit of debt, the House of Representatives controlled by the Democratic Party will inevitably return to teeth.Although the United States has increased its debt limit seventy -eight times since 1960, the final result should not be an exception, but disputes will inevitably lead to fluctuations in the financial market.
As for Hong Kong, under the friction of China and the United States, it was also suffered from major injuries. Fortune Chen Maobo revealed yesterday that the economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year was only 1.5 %, and the exports were almost zero, and the situation in the first quarter of this year was not optimistic.
With the growth of China, the United States, and Hong Kong, investors must wake up the twelve points of spirit and deploy investment carefully.
