Wang Xiaolu, deputy director of the National Institute of National Economic Reform of the China Reform Foundation, pointed out at the Yabuli China Entrepreneur Forum from 16th to 18th of this month that currency easing has almost gone on China's economic growth.
According to Sina Finance, Wang Xiaolu reviewed history that from 2000 to 2018, China's GDP (GDP) actually increased by 3.8 times, but M2 increased by 12.6 times, which is a very large increase in currency supply.In fact, China ’s loose monetary policy has not just started since 2008, but has been loose monetary policy for a long time, and currency growth is much higher than GDP growth.
A series of structural problems faced by the Chinese economy are brought by currency loose for a long time. Wang Xiaolu said that one of the serious problems is that the debt has continued to rise and the leverage is too high.In addition, due to excessive investment, coupled with the government's investment in urban construction and infrastructure construction, many of them have no economic benefits and investment with high macro efficiency. A considerable part ofIt is a waste.
In his opinion, the above situation has led to the problems of structural imbalance between the Chinese economy. From 2016 to the present, GDP growth has dropped from 10%or more to 6.6%from official statistics last year. I don’t recognize this 6.6%.I think the actual situation is much worse than this.
Some views believe that the current downward pressure on the economy should temporarily abandon structural adjustment, deleveraging and other policies, and take care of the economy in the short term and pull the economy up.Wang Xiaolu does not agree with this statement. We are facing structural problems. It is invalid to want to solve the structural problem with the method of regulating the total amount. The loose monetary policy has become smaller and smaller in stimulating economic growth.It is almost impossible to see it, but the negative effect is very obvious, that is, the extra currency runs to the real estate market, forming a housing bubble, and has brought other problems.
Wang Xiaolu believes that using short -term macro policies to solve the structural problems of the medium and long -term periods, I am afraid that it will be counterproductive, causing greater financial risks and structural imbalances.
