Xue Li: In the long run, the second special gold will be just a political show that is more than a substantial form in the process of abandonment of thousands of times.
The news that the Second Special Gold will be held in Hanoi at the end of February has attracted the attention of many media around the world.Many people hope that this meeting can make breakthrough progress. For example, in North Korea's abandonment of nuclear abandonment and the United States, it has made binding and operable arrangements for security guarantees.
My point of view is that the Nuclear Nuclear issue is a stubborn psoriasis that is not easy to treat. It is inevitable from time to time. It requires internal surgery to join forces with some auxiliary methods.Jointly, coupled with the help of South Korea, Japan, and Russia.At present, this is a luxury.Therefore, it is not too high for the forthcoming second special gold meeting.In the long run, this is just a political show that is more than a substantial form in the process of abandonment of thousands of times.Both DPRK and the United States know this, but out of their own needs, they are also willing to cooperate to perform another game.That's it.
Acting is the primary professional task of politicians. They need to be played and performed in public at any time in public.Therefore, the acting skills of politicians overall are all walks, and they can be called a trick.Compared with them, professional actors who only perform on specific occasions are undoubtedly the second stream.Researchers at this political science have always been clear that people who eat melon must not be inspected.
North Korea's development of nuclear energy technology has been obtained from the Soviet Union in the 1950s.Nuclear energy belongs to military and civilian dual -use technology. With the popularization of technology, the threshold for developing nuclear weapons has been greatly reduced, so it has become a protective weapon pursued by many poor and small countries.North Korea accelerated the development of nuclear weapons in the 1990s. The internal reasons were economic difficulties and the vulnerability of regime caused by this.The main reasons are: Su Dong's drama changes; security pressure from the United States; China and South Korea established diplomatic relations.The three made North Korea's abandoned children, and only fully developed nuclear weapons to protect themselves.
Even now, for North Korea, which is consciously unsafe, nuclear weapons are still the best protective tools. It is not possible to give up. For North Korea, nuclear is the absolute symbol of dignity and strength.Understand, no matter who it is, it must not change or shake the route of the existence and development of North Korea as the country.No matter how precious the friendship between the DPRK and China, North Korea will not be begged at the cost of the nuclear weapons of life (the editorial on May 7, 2017, 2017).
Before having to abandon the nuclear, taking the nuclear as a bargaining chip is also an inevitable choice for North Korea.
North Korea agrees to negotiate with the United States on abandoning nuclear issues. There are two reasons internationally and outside. There are two main reasons inside: they already have nuclear weapons and considerable long -range delivery capabilities, realize the complete history of national nuclear weapons, and grasp the people of all people to tighten the tighteningThe long -term hopes for the long -term hopes of peace and the strong sword, the entire territory of the United States has entered our nuclear attack range, and the nuclear button has always been placed on the desk of our office. Therefore; This can be used as a breakthrough in the breakthrough of the United States to negotiate directly with the United States, alleviate security pressure, and open the breakthrough of revitalization for the economic front departments.
The external reason is that the revolutionary cause is facing an unprecedented severe challenge (the content in the quotation is quoted from the New Year speech on January 1, 2018).In fact, there are two main, later described later.
The first thing the United States cares about is the remote delivery capacity of North Korean nuclear weapons, and the second is whether North Korea has nuclear weapons.Obama's strategic patience against the DPRK has proven to be unable to stop North Korea from developing nuclear weapons technology.The significant progress of North Korean missile carrier technology was during the Obama period, which caused the United States to feel pressure. In addition, the personality factors of trading leaders made Trump implement the extreme pressure policy on North Korea after he came to power.This is one of the major external reasons that North Korea agrees to abandon nuclear negotiations.There is confidence and confidence, developing economy, and severe external environment.
Wen Zaiyin's government believes that his own contact policy is the main reason for North Korea to negotiate with the United States with nuclear negotiations and may promote North Korea's nuclear abandonment.This is logically unreasonable.Obviously, contact with DPRK is obviously inconsistent with Trump's extreme pressure.South Korea has always had the characteristics of conservative presidents to the friendship of Tujita and Progressive Presidents to the Chao Dynasty.
As the President of Progressive Cluster President, Wen Zaiyin naturally preferred to improve North -South relations through contact with the DPRK and even hopes to make breakthroughs in order to leave the name of the history. Therefore, he invested a lot of political capital and launched the new economic map of the Korean Peninsula and the New North economic policy.Obviously, he cannot agree to implement extreme pressure on North Korea, even if he knows that the nuclear arrangement arrangement is a prerequisite for comprehensively implementing the above economic policies.
This means that he has contradictions with the policy of the North Korea and affects the implementation of extreme pressure, which is objective to help North Korea instead of helping Trump.Therefore, in the past year, the wound -of -the -art government's dealings between North Korea and the United States have been happy to see North Korea, and North Korea has cooperated from time to time.But in Trump, it is difficult to get substantial support.
In the second half of 2017, China imposed sanctions on North Korea with unprecedented efforts, which was another major external reasons for North Korea to negotiate nuclear negotiations.There are three reasons for China: stabilizing Sino -US relations; implementing UN resolutions, promoting the process of settlement of Nuclear Nuclear issues, and showing the responsibility of nuclear powers in preventing nuclear diffusion; resolving the potential threats of North Korean nuclear weapons to its own.China cannot rule out the possibility of North Korea's use of nuclear weapons in extreme circumstances, and is also worried that North Korea's nuclear leakage on the catastrophic impact on surrounding areas.
However, China also believes that before North Korea's reasonable concern was met, Trump asked North Korea to abandon the nuclear in a short time, which is obviously unrealistic.China's basic policies on the North Korean nuclear issue are always: resolution through negotiations.Extreme pressure is a special case.
The problem is that after Trump found that he could not force North Korea to abandon the nuclear in the short term, he turned his attention to fully deal with strategic competitors China. In addition to launching a trade war, it also had difficulty to China on the South China Sea, Taiwan, Xinjiang and other issues.In Trump's view, world leadership, values, climate change, etc. are all clouds. The important thing is that they can obtain real benefits and benefits for the United States. To this end, they can be used to the allies.For China, it can also be traded in everything, depending on how the conditions are.
From the perspective of China, the importance of the South China Sea issue is greater than the North Korean nuclear issue. The Taiwan issue and the Xinjiang issue are the core interests of China, but Trump does not care about it, and even the cockpit stone of the Sino -US relations of economic and trade relations can be shaken., It is a show that neither gives to face nor to Lizi.So, what need to continue to cooperate with the United States on the North Korean nuclear issue?You Trump goes alone.
As a savvy leader, Kim Jong -un obviously captured the changes in Sino -US relations, and adopted a move of weakness, goodness, and relatives to China.The effect is quite significant.The improvement of China -DPRK relations last year is obvious to all.
With the help of China and South Korea, what needed North Korea to concessions from Trump's nuclear abandonment?At best, we consider giving up missile remote carrier technology, but it is not easy to monitor from the outside.
Therefore, in June 2018, the first special gold club held in Singapore, although the two sides signed a document, reached an agreement on the four contents, including North Korea's promise to be completely denuclearized, and the United States also promised to provide security to North Korea (this point (this pointFour content that is not a agreement).But more than half a year passed, and there was no substantial progress.The new economic map of the Korean Peninsula that Wen Zaiyin values and the New North policy has also been difficult.In addition to external reasons, because of some government departments (such as the Ministry of National Defense, Intelligence Institute, and Unified Department), they are worried about the fall of power and disappearing or not in cooperation.
Song Yongji, the president of the Presidential North Economic Cooperation Committee, resigned from the Presidential President of the New North Policy, was to run for the Chairman of the Communist Democratic Party, but if he thinks that the chairman is very dry, he may not go to the party chairman who has not been grasped.In fact, he also lost to former Prime Minister Li Haizheng.What is more interesting is that Song Yongji's senior economist Quan Guxun, a senior economist in Hong Kong.An economist who does not have any political background in South Korea, what can be done in promoting highly political economic policy issuesIt's hard to imagine.Therefore, many Korean scholars are also puzzled by Wen Zaiyin's choice.
On the whole, after more than a year of excitement, the North Korean nuclear issue has not made any substantial progress. Some scholars even think that they basically return to the starting point. The main results are the platform for direct contact with the North Korea and the United States.This is needed by both North Korea and the United States.China, South Korea, Japan, and Russia do not oppose or support this contact.As a result, the Second Time was staged in Hanoi.
However, in the current situation, if there are still people think that the North Korea and the United States may have obtained substantial breakthroughs and make operational arrangements for key issues such as abandoned nuclear and US security commitments.Simple, sometimes naive.
