China and the U.S. economic and trade negotiations need a win -win agreement in China

Zhou Xiaoming: Sino -US economic and trade negotiations are not scattered, and it may not be a bad thing for China.What China needs is a win -win agreement, and there is no need to costly to reach an agreement.

At the beginning of the pig, Sino -US economic and trade negotiations were reopened in Beijing.With the increasing limit of the limits on March 1st, Chinese exporters could not help feeling chilling: If China and the United States failed to reach an agreement before the limit, the tariff knife hanging on their heads would fall.

Sino -US negotiations have affected the hearts of hundreds of millions of people and also attracted global attention.The world generally expects that China and the United States can reach an agreement.In this way, China and the United States in the field of economic and trade will ease, and the confidence of the global industrial and commercial community will be improved.

China needs a win -win agreement.The international negotiations of Dan Fan are all exercising the streets in both directions, not a single road.In this case, the two sides have their own gains, instead of returning one party with a full load, but the other has nothing to find.Sino -US economic and trade consultations are the exchange between the interests of both parties, not the occasion of the United States unilaterally.It is reasonable to expect that China promises to expand the import of imports from the United States and improve the market access of American companies, and will be exchanged for the United States' recognition of the Chinese market economy status and the relaxation of the restrictions on high -tech trade investment in China and the United States.The concession of China must be exchanged for the suspension of the trade war itself.

However, the prospect of reaching a win -win agreement is not optimistic.The ambitions in the United States are likely to be the biggest obstacle to China and the United States to reach an agreement.Trump proposed in the National Love Counseling article published a week ago that the Sino -US New Trade Agreement must have a real and structural change to end China's unfair trade behavior.The United States is currently not satisfied with the goal of trade balance determined in advance.It is focusing on China's industrial policy, government subsidies and state -owned enterprises.

The changes in the US negotiation goals reflect its reversal of China policy.In December 2017, the United States released a new national security strategy. For the first time, China was determined as a strategic opponent and began to comprehensively curb China.Although China is bitter, it is reasonable and affectionate. It is hoped that the United States will change from the overall well -being of the people of the two countries and the world economy.The American ruling class is not moved by the sincerity of China, and it still has to decide with China.

Change the economic system is one of the important means for the United States to suppress China.The United States found that in competition with China, it became more and more difficult to take advantage of the upper hand, thinking that all this was due to China's economic system.The United States believes that in order to stabilize the global domineering position, it must be started from the root, and weaken China's competitiveness by changing China's economic system and suppressing the advantages of China's system.As a result, Washington wants to discredit China's economic system and attacks China's unfair economic policy, and requires China to change evil.To put it bluntly, the demands of the United States are nothing more than that in China to cut their footsteps and abandon their strengths, and defeat in international competition.

If China -US negotiations can reach an agreement, the ceasefire of the trade war is likely to be a flash in the flash.Out of strategic considerations, the United States has stirred up a new incident on the execution of the agreement or other issues.The field of economic and trade is just one of the many battlefields of China opened up by the United States, and it may not be the most important one.Even if there is no war in the field of economy and trade, the United States has changed the situation of curbing China.The US offense in politics, security and technology will not stop.On the day when the US negotiated representative arrived in Beijing, two warships in the United States broke into the South China Sea again in China.After the United States succeeds in the field of economy and trade, it is likely to intensify, and concentrated troops have launched a more violent offensive in other fields.Expect the United States to put down the butcher knife and not be actual.The American ruling class that regards the dispute between China and the United States as the battle of life and death is almost impossible to be soft -hearted against China.

The United States has also pushed China's comprehensive open market and depict it as the huge benefits of Chinese people.It is true that expanding opening up is necessary for the Chinese power.However, the appropriate amount of medicine is cure, and excessive amount may cause people to death.To play a positive role in opening, it must be premised in orderly and risky.The signing of the Nanjing Treaty forced the rulers of the Qing Dynasty to open the country, and even gave the customs to the British in charge.However, the opening of this portal not only did not become the gospel of the Chinese nation, but pushed China into the abyss of the suffering of semi -colonial.This requirement in Washington is also difficult for China to agree.

Some people worry that if China does not agree to the United States' request, the United States will be angry and start a Cold War.US Vice President Pence said in the second half of last year that if China wants to avoid comprehensive cold war with the United States and its allies, it must make substantial changes in economic, military, and politically in accordance with the requirements of the United States.

However, the reality is that there is no basis for the Cold War today.The United States allies are inseparable from China in economics, and most of them are reluctant to tie themselves on the US chariot to avoid damage to their own interests.The European Union, Japan and Australia are extremely disgusted with unilateralism promoted by Trump, and they are even more willing to maintain a multilateral trading system with China.The United States is alone, and it is inevitable that the establishment of anti -China Alliance is inevitable.The New Cold War is not popular in the United States.For the American industry and commerce community, the Cold War means that the world's largest market is the world's largest market and means self -discipline.Therefore, no matter how concerned the Trump administration, and spare no effort to implement the plan of isolation China, in the end, it can only be a dream of yellow beams.

The negotiations between China and the United States are unsuccessful, and the pressure and concerns of the United States are not less than China.In recent months, the US stock market market has been like a ride, and the information of the negotiations is ups and downs.The negative impact of the Sino -US trade war on the United States has begun to emerge, and its shocking effect on American commercial investment and consumer confidence has become highlighted, and even some US -industrial leaders have to come out to stop.According to the former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Bull; Samer's calculation, the impact of the trade war on the Sino -US economy is roughly comparable, all about 0.5 %.A new report of the Global Trade Partner Consulting Company headquartered in Washington also shows that the Sino -US trade war can reduce the total product value of the United States by one percentage point and cause more than two million Americans to unemployment.The trade war continued, and the deer died without knowing it.

Sino -US economic and trade negotiations are not scattered, which is not necessarily a bad thing for China.The result of this negotiation of the century by foreign media will not only affect the future direction of Sino -US relations, but also have a significant impact on the process of China's rise.For China, what kind of agreement to reach this negotiation of the National Games is far more important than whether there is an agreement.What it needs is a win -win agreement that can reflect the balance of interests between the two parties, and it is not necessary to costly to reach an agreement.As long as you keep the position, persist in the core interests, and keep it the magic weapon that it depends on the continuous development, China may eventually win.

Note: This article is authorized by the global think tank and does not represent the view of FT Chinese website.CCG, referred to as CCG, is the leading international think tank in China.CCG is committed to China's globalization strategy, internationalization and internationalization of corporate internationalization. At present, there are nearly 100 research think tank research and professionals in full -time think tanks.