Shen Jianguang: It is still critical to boost the focus of consumption on the income end to accelerate the implementation of various measures for structural reforms; to accelerate the reform of rural land reform, increase the income of farmers' wealth, and release rural consumption potential.
In the second half of 2018, the Chinese economy faced the weaker consumption and some groups of consumption relegation.Entering 2019, in the face of still severe downward pressure, how to stabilize the Chinese economy by supporting consumption has become a topic of policy decision -making.Recently, ten ministries and commissions such as the Development and Reform Commission have jointly issued further optimization of supply to promote smooth growth of consumption to promote the formation of a strong domestic market (2019) (hereinafter referred to as the implementation plan), which aims to boost consumption in the short term.However, similar to the incentive consumption measures launched by China's economy in 2008, and the same mentioned support for rural consumption, focusing on the announcement of durable goods such as automobiles and home appliances, the market response was mediocre.Is this round stimulating consumption policy right?What is the key to boosting China's consumption in the future?
First, similar and different consumption stimulus policies
Compared with the measures that stimulate consumption in 2008, the measures mentioned in this round of supporting consumption implementation plans are still the focus, mentioning the excavation of rural online shopping and tourism consumption potential, construction of consumer infrastructure, etc.At the same time, there are clear support requirements for commodities with large retail sales of social consumer goods, including automotive and home appliances and other durable products.
So why does it involve a wide range of consumption programs, but the market response is mediocre?The author believes that in the final analysis, it is that the financial resources that support consumption are limited, the marginal effects of stimulating consumption have diminished effects, and the preliminary stimulus policy has three major factors: arbitrage space and moral risk.
First, the central financial budget is limited, and it is difficult to support large -scale consumer subsidies.
From 2007-2013, the consumption of home appliances and automobile consumption stimulus policies is large, the subsidy plan is specific, and the central government's financial support is obvious.It is not difficult to find out that from 2007 to 2013, the home appliances went to the countryside and the vehicles to replace the new supporting policies of the new supporting policies. The subsidies were large and the amount of subsidies was large, and the central government accounted for more than 80%.For example, in August 2009, the Ministry of Finance stated that the central and local finance arrangements for automobiles and home appliances were at least 7.5 billion yuan during the implementation of the old -fashioned policy.Household appliances are replaced with new 2 billion yuan.
In contrast, the policy of supporting consumption has very limited financial support and does not have a clear financial subsidy.The full text of the implementation plan refers to the central financial support, that is, where the old diesel truck is eliminated and the old diesel trucks have achieved significant results in the effectiveness of air pollution control measures such as new energy vehicles.The policies of the elderly's living environment, the sales of poverty alleviation agricultural products, green and smart home appliance sales consumption, the central government's financial support is very limited, and it does not have a clear financial subsidy.The full text of the implementation plan refers to the central financial support, that is, where the old diesel truck is eliminated and the old diesel trucks have achieved significant results in the effectiveness of air pollution control measures such as new energy vehicles.Subsidies for the living environment of the elderly, the sales of poverty alleviation agricultural products, green and smart home appliance sales, and home appliances with old -fashioned and high -definition TVs must rely on local finances; and local subsidies are not compulsory, local governments can decide on their own, and their strength is unclear.
The reason is that in this round of stable growth policies, the wide fiscal festival faces multiple goals such as tax cuts and fees, infrastructure supplement shortcomings, etc. The central financial budget is limited.Affected by tax cuts, since the fourth quarter of 2018, the year -on -year growth rate of central government revenue has dropped to negative.
Second, the marginal effect of short -term administrative stimulus means decreased
In the past, the stimulus policy of consumption of durable products such as home appliances and cars mainly adopted administrative means such as fiscal subsidies and purchase tax reduction. It is a short -term demand management measure. It can often achieve good results after the policy is landed, but some consumption is also overdrawn in advance.space.Take cars as an example. In 2009 and 2015, the purchase tax was reduced twice, respectively, and leaned at 5%of small displacement passenger cars below by 5%. The purchase tax was reduced by half.The short-term rebound of the growth rate; especially from 2009 to 2010, the fiscal subsidy and the purchase tax reduction and exemption, the monthly growth rate of passenger car sales rose quickly from January 2009 to 115.5%in January 2010, with significant effects.After the exit of the stimulus policy, the relevant consumption of the relevant consumption declined; when the main policy of the home appliance subsidy in 2012 and 2014, the growth rate of retail sales of home appliances decreased significantly.The growth rate of passenger car sales also declined.
In addition, in terms of long -term influence, there are problems in the stimulus policy such as home appliances to the countryside in the last round of the home appliances. Under the circumstances of high bases, it is difficult to owns new home appliances.As far as home appliances are concerned, as of the end of 2017, among the 100 households in China's rural areas, color TVs, refrigerators, air conditioners, and washing machines were 120, 91.7, 52.6, 86.3, respectively, an increase of 25.6, 65.6, 44.1, and 40.4 from 2007.The other three except air conditioner are at a high level.Because of this, this round of home appliances stimulus policies do not include home appliances to the countryside, but mainly to promote the renewal of home appliances and support green smart home appliance sales.; Policy stimulus has weakened from scratch and from the marginal to update.
Third, there are also policy arbitrage space for fiscal subsidies and other means
In the past few years, although administrative stimulus such as fiscal subsidies and reduction of purchase tax has played a certain effect in the short term, there are economic efficiency loss, and moral risks such as cheating have risen and raised policy costs.In 2014, the Audit Office announced that in the process of promoting subsidies such as energy conservation and emission reduction and elimination of backward production capacity, the company's fraudulent supplement was serious, including many industry leaders, which can be described as addiction. In recent yearsThe same problem also exists in subsidies. In January 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance and other ministries and commissions jointly conducted a large -scale verification of the financial subsidies of new energy vehicles. The list of five car supplementary companies was announced in September, and the total amount of fraudulent supplements was more than 1 billion yuan or more.Essence
Second, the key to stimulating consumption is tax reduction and fee reduction
Although the effect of supporting short -term stimulus measures is reduced, it is undeniable that China's consumption potential will still be huge in the future.At present, the income growth rate of Chinese residents is still higher than the growth rate of GDP, and the demand for high -quality consumption has shown rapid growth.At the same time, the phenomenon of consumption gap and imbalance between different regions is still prominent. For different groups, there are strong demand and desire for consumption upgrades, especially in rural consumption bases.Increasing farmers' wealth and further boosting consumption prospects are very broad.In addition, considering that the previous round of consumption stimulus policies have been withdrawn for 6-7 years, the durable items such as home appliances that have been sold have reached the replacement cycle, and the demand for renewal in the future is still strong.So, what is the focus of policy support in the future?
In the author's opinion, last year, the weak consumption was mainly driven by multiple negative factors such as decline in income, consumer credit contraction, and wealth effect. Among them, the slowdown in the growth rate of residents' long -term income and possible employment pressure on the optional consumption parts caused by the partial consumption partLarge is the main obstacle to the current consumption upgrade.For example, Zero Data in December shows that the growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods category for food, grain and oil, daily necessities, etc. has increased compared with November, and most categories of consumption consumption have maintained a downward trend.In addition, the Jingdong University Consumption Index also supports the current compulsory consumption and optional consumption, which has differentiated. The overall trend of optional consumer goods such as mobile phones and computers has declined.Stable, and the growth rate has remained above 20%since March 2018.
Therefore, the author believes that the focus of boosting consumption should still be on the income end, and accelerate the implementation of the various items of structural reformMeasures are still key.
The first is on the residential end to increase the reform of income distribution and improve the long -term disposable income level of residents.The current personal income tax reform has been implemented, but the number of personal income taxes in China is low, and the number of people who can benefit from the raising point such as the starting point is limited. Most residents have not enjoyed tax reduction benefits.Considering that there is a certain space for reducing the rate of five insurances and one funding rate, the relevant measures that should be reduced as soon as possible should be implemented as soon as possible to expand the scope of benefit of tax reduction and fee reduction, and improve the level of disposable income in the medium- and long -term for residents.
The second is to increase the policy of tax cuts and fees on the enterprise, improve corporate profits, and stabilize employment expectations.The current decline in consumption willingness of residents has also been worried about future revenue stability, and increases the consideration of preventive savings.In the author's opinion, the burden of the enterprise as soon as possible, a larger scale to reduce the value -added tax, and greatly reduce the various expenses such as social insurance payment, the directional regulation and control policies that support private enterprise financing, and measures to improve the social security fund with large -scale state -owned assets.Enterprise profitability is very important to stabilize employment expectations.
The third is to accelerate the reform of rural land, increase the wealth income of farmers, and release the potential for rural consumption.In the author's opinion, in addition to accelerating the improvement of infrastructure, the most important thing is to consider the income income of farmers' wealth income. In 2019Improving the disposable income of rural residents and driving rural consumption, and it can also truly be rich in the people.
Note: This article only represents the author's views
