Kawashima True: Around the G20 Sino -US summit will look forward to and restlessly

Shimi Kawashima Shinshi (the author is a professor at the University of Tokyo, Japan)

Recently, Chinese scholars and I discussed in Sino -US relations that Chinese scholars have two characteristics on the occasion of China and the United States.

First, there is a strong tendency to believe that the United States' policy on China has relying on President Trump's personal Chinese view and decision -making.China's foreign understanding is often a mirror of the country, which may be because Trump is compared to the leader of the Chinese President of China.

Second, there is a strong tendency to believe that summit talks are the best occasions to finally solve the current Sino -US relations.Therefore, the Buenos Aires Group (G20) summit is regarded as a Sino -US summit. There are many opinions on the Internet.

However, there are many things that make people feel inconsistent with the United States.It is necessary to say that Trump's overall influence on the United States has to be said.However, the Trump Republican election lost the hospital in the middle of the period and became difficult to control the parliament. Even if the presidential order issued a president may be restrained in judicially.The principle of separation of three powers restricts the power of the president, while the game of the next presidential election will begin.

In addition, it is not just that Trump leads to the formulation of the United States policy to China.Of course, Trump's unfairness in trade has become a major cause of deterioration of Washington's attitude towards China.However, except for Trump, including Democratic members, bureaucrats, and think tank scholars, Washington's super -party people are very harsh on China.Vice President Pence's speech at the Hudson Institute can be said to represent various voices of Washington.

As these strict voices of China have continued to rise, Trump's requirements for improving China's improvement in China seem to be easy to correspond to China.Because Trump's request is the digital goal, the requirements are very specific.If China accepts human rights issues, international standards, etc., it will be more difficult.

However, even if the Sino -US summit meets an agreement on digital targets, the current Sino -US tension relationship may still continue.Because Trump's request did not include all the voices of Washington.

From the perspective of China, there is no other law except for the severe analysis of Washington, except for comprehensive analysis and long -term corresponding requirements for long -term corresponding requirements.Washington's positioning of strict policies in China has not been completely unified.

Conservatives also claim that those who advocate the new Cold War and abandon the policy of connecting the China Connection have strictly connected to the centralized faction. How to unify these opinions is still unknown.In this sense, China needs to be tough for a long time with the United States.Therefore, it is said that whether a summit can solve all problems at once, there are still uncertain elements.

Shang Yongmei: Can summon talks clearly clarify the relationship between Russia and Russia?

At the beginning of 2018, North Korea announced the willingness to jointly promote the process of nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula with the international community. China, North Korea, South Korea, North Korea, the United States, South Korea, and Russia have successively held a summit., Get a great relief.

However, the traditional AIA; Mdash; MDash; Russia's attitude is not positive.Although Russia still maintains cooperation with North Korea in different ways in sanctions in the international community, Russia's policy orientation of North Korea in the future is as uncertain as the clouds.

2018 is the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between North Korea and Russia. Russian media have repeatedly stated that the North Korean labor party chairman Kim Jong -un has accepted the invitation of Russian President Putin and will visit Russia during the year, but it has been unable to do it.The North Korean nuclear issue is lingering in the wrestling of thunder and heavy rain. Whether the talks between the North Korean Russian heads can bring new ideas and new explorations to the solution of the North Korean nuclear issue. How to maintain close attention to the prospects of the relations between North Korea and Russia.

Traditional AIA country

North Korea and Russia are traditional AIAs, which has nothing to do with the tight geography of the two countries.The borders of the two countries are 16.9 kilometers long along the Tutu River (equivalent to 84 points of the 1,416 kilometers of the China -DPRK border line, and one -259th of the 4374 kilometers of the China -Russia border).For Russia, North Korea is its entrance to the Pacific; for South Korea and Japan, North Korea is a bridgehead in Russia's hinterland.

In October 1948, after the founding of North Korea, the Soviet Union took the lead in establishing diplomatic relations with it. North Korea joined the Soviet Union as the core socialist camp. It maintained a close strategic collaborative relationship with the Soviet Union in politics, economy, and military.And the main supply country.

In the 1970s and 1980s, in order to prevent excessive dependence on the Soviet Union, North Korea implemented an equidist for diplomatic diplomacy between China and the Soviet Union.In the 1990s, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia abolished the socialist price preferential system, used hard -pass currency settlement, and deteriorated economic relations between North Korea and Russia. Later, South Korea and Russia established diplomatic relations, and the relations between North Korea and Russia became cold.In 1990, the trade volume of the North Korean Soviet Union was about 2.2 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 53.3%of North Korea's total trade volume, 70%of North Korea's power generation, 50%of chemical fertilizers, and 40%of steel was achieved with the assistance of Soviet Union.However, the total amount of trade between North Korea and Russia in 1995 was about 83 million US dollars, a significant decrease compared with 1990.

In the 2000s, after the Putin government came to power, it tried to improve the relationship.President Putin and Kim Jong Il made mutual visits.In February 2000, the two countries signed the Treaty of Friendship with Russia and Russia, marking the beginning of the establishment of a new type of friendly relations between the two countries, and North Korea and Russia began to heat up.From 2012 to 2014, North Korea and Russia signed various milestone cooperation to strengthen cooperation in the fields of power, energy and railway construction.

In 2015, especially after 2016, the international community strengthened sanctions on North Korea and shrinks economic and trade cooperation between North Korea and Russia, but maintained cooperation and interpersonal exchanges other than sanctions.

At the same time, North Korea and Russia still maintain support to each other to some extent.For example, North Korea refused to initiate a resolution against Russia's merger of the Crimean Peninsula; Russia also opposed the UN Security Council's sanctions resolutions on the UN Security Council against the UN Security Council.

Political significance is greater than economic significance

1. The political significance of economic cooperation

Although the economic cooperation between North Korea and Russia has a long history, the scale is small (the trade volume of Russia and North Korea in 2017 only accounts for 1.2%of North Korea's foreign trade), and most of them stay in the agreement stage.However, in the situation of the international community's sanctions on North Korea, Russia maintains cooperation with North Korea's agreement with North Korea in energy, electricity, railways, harbor, oceans, and North Korea's labor output, which has exerted a certain influence for North Korea to get rid of the international isolation and provide North Korea to provide North KoreaThe valuable way to earn foreign exchange relieves North Korea's energy crisis to some extent.

When the United Nations passed the sanction of the North Korean resolution No. 2270, the Russian Russia -Hassan project was carried out normally. After the 2371 resolution was passed, Russia also pointed out that North Korea's missile missile was not an intercontinental ballistic missile, but a medium -range ballistic missile.After June 2018, Russia once again proposed that the United Nations should suspend sanctions on North Korea and support North Korea in diplomacy.

Second, economic cooperation

In October 1967, the North Korea and Russia Agreement established the North Korea Economic Cooperative Committee. In 1992, it was renamed the Commission of Trade, Economic, and Scientific and Technological Assistance of North Korea and Russia, and was responsible for economic and trade cooperation between the two countries.

In terms of railways, the most progress in the North Korean and Russian core economic cooperation projects was the Siberian Henggun Railway (TSR) and the Korean Peninsula connecting the railway (TKR) connection project.The project aims to establish a model of economic cooperation between governments between the two countries and strive to create the Northeast Asian logistics base.

In September 2013, Russia's Hasan to North Korea was completed by the new Railway Railway in North Korea. In July 2014, the Romin Port Cargo Transfer Station was officially opened to the public. It is now used for Russian coal exports to China.

In terms of the gas pipeline connection project, in August 2011, the North Russian leader signed a memorandum of understanding, and reached an agreement on the gas pipeline connection project of North Korea -South Korea in Russia's Irkutsk -North Korea -South Korea.After the project is completed, North Korea will accept it every yearThe fixed intermediary fee of 10 million to 150 million US dollars is currently interrupted due to the Nuclear issue.

In terms of the construction of the New Friendship Bridge, the Iron and Russia Friendship Bridge built in 1959 has long been rusty and difficult to use.In March 2018, the Friendship Bridge Working Group was formed by North and Russia, and the construction of the new bridge was on the agenda.After the completion of the new bridge, the trading of the former North Korea and Russia can be transformed into direct trade between North Korea and Russia, and the scale of North Korea and Russia will expand significantly.However, due to many political reasons and the influence of North Korea's nuclear issues, there is no substantial progress in the Three Kingdoms railway networks that have penetrated Russia, North Korea.

In terms of North Korean grid reconstruction and transmission projects, in November 2015, North Korea signed an electricity cooperation agreement to jointly promote the power grid reconstruction project of about 30 billion US dollars (Russian border -Rina 45 kilometers, 18 kilometers of electric wires in the coastal continents).In 2017, the power delivery ability can reach 6O MW, but it is interrupted due to the nuclear issue.

3. North Korea's labor output against Russia

According to the 1967 Agreement between the Russia and Russia, North Korea sent 15,000 liberal workers to Russia's Siberia and the Far East every year.In 1985, North Korea and Russia negotiated the increase in North Korean workers to 20,000 to 25,000.In 1991, it signed cooperation related agreements in the field of mountain forests and logging in Russia. According to the agreement, North Korea can continue to designate the Siberia and Far East to participate in the Labor workers participating in the logging, wood processing, and recovery of mountain forests from the Russian Forest Hall.As of the end of 2017, about 37,000 North Korean workers had been engaged in construction, logging, agriculture, fishery, and sewing in Russia.

After the implementation of the sanctions on the DPRK No. 2371 and 2397, the North Korean labor visa in the Far East of Russia was mostly expired at the end of 2019 and must return to China.But recently, the Wall Street Journal stated that after the sanctions resolution passed, Russia's newly registered North Korean workers were still as many as 10,000 people, and in 2018, more than 700 Korean workers were hired.

The development of economic and trade cooperation with Russia is a necessary choice for North Korea to improve the external environment, check the United States, and break the international community's blockade and curb.After the fourth government of Putin, Putin proposed the New Oriental policy to promote economic development in the Far East, and it was inseparable from the cooperation between North Korea, Russia and South Korea.

North Korea ’s nuclear guidance test has not only caused severe sanctions that the United Nations has continuously upgraded, but also hinders the recovery and development of North Korea and Russia.At that time, North Korea -Russia relations will be further improved.

If you look at the flowers -like head -of -Russian summit in the fog, if the year is successful, it will further improve and promote the relations between North Korea and Russia, strengthen the confidence of North Korea's integration into the international community, and increase Russia's influence on the Korean Peninsula.In order to promote the designated pilot development zone in the Far East, Russia is expected to rejuvenate the new vitality; the economic and trade cooperation such as the laying of gas pipelines, railway, and transmission line connection projects of Russia, South Korea, and North Korea will also be substantially promoted.

The scale of North Korea and Russia has further expanded, and economic cooperation projects can expand to multiple cooperation models on the basis of the original.In this way, it has an important impact on the North Korean economy in sanctions and the restoration of weak Russia, especially the Far East economy.At the same time, the improvement of relations between North Korea and Russia will promote economic cooperation in the large maps. With the active participation of neighboring countries, North Korea's infrastructure will be expected to be supported by the necessary property.

Russia has cooperated with North Korea for a long time in many fields such as interpersonal exchanges, railways, highways, and power infrastructure. The cooperation foundation has a good cooperation, and has certain cooperation experience and advantages in North Korea's foreign economic cooperation.While achieving improvement of relations between North Korea and Russia and promoting the development of economic and trade cooperation, it will also promote multilateral cooperation in North Korea, South Korea and Russia.

The author is an associate researcher at the Jilin Provincial Academy of Social Sciences