Author: Sun Changguo

The continued Sino -US trade war has led to the severe fluctuations of the global stock market, the continued heating up the economic nationalism, the British Brexit to rule the silk, and the Italian budget was rejected by the EU.The corpse case has caused the US's moral prestige in the Middle East rapidly. The Arab world is accumulating new forces to disagree with religious factions, and the national development direction has reviewed.In the arrangement and combination, the nine -in -one elections in Taiwan should also be viewed in the large -scale category of the World Bureau, in order to see the significance and the direction that should be worked hard after the election.

The first is that the globalization process is severely disturbed by the trade war.The United States has listed cutting -edge technologies including semiconductor, artificial intelligence, face recognition technology, and sound -patterned technology as the next wave of possible technologies.These areas are closely related to the high -tech industry chain.Taiwan happens to be at the forefront of the United States and the mainland.Once the Sino -US trade war expands, many related companies will face impact.

Apple's stock price declines all the way from a high point, and even dragging a lot of Pingju shares is the consequences of the trade war and the concentrated performance of market expectations.Within 35 days, tariffs will be increased from 10%to 25%. The economic tsunami will be waved after wave. It is difficult for Taiwan to be spared.

The US stock market has recently fallen down hugely, and from technology to energy stocks has entered a bear market.Trump's proud economic glory may turn sharply.At the beginning of next year, the new parliament will take an oath. Democratic Party will account for the majority of the House of Representatives. It is expected that it will increase its constraints on Trump.The latest report of the US Congress Budget Office shows that in the past 10 years, US public debt has increased from US $ 5.1 trillion to $ 15.9 trillion. The interest expenditure of government bonds will exceed Medicaid in 2020.The national defense budget is $ 700 billion.The government's interest burden is increasing and squeezing other financial project expenditures.The efficiency of Trump's tax reduction drugs has been greatly reduced, and the adverse impact of the trade war on the US economy may spread.

The elections of the nine -in -one elections in Taiwan, especially the mayor of Kaohsiung, revealed to the national and civil parties that Taiwanese voters are impatient for old countries and the people. After the election, both parties will reorganize and combine the power.Driven the Korean flow, Zheng Wencan's foundation in Taoyuan is further stable, which is likely to be a topic that is worth reviewing when the two parties have adjusted the power structure.

The phenomenon of North Drifting is a ruthless irony that has been governing the DPP for at least 20 years in southern Taiwan.When the goods are gone, people come in in Taiwan to make a prerequisite for wealth.Kaohsiung voters formed a Korean stream, and the phenomenon of high singing night attacks showed that even the DPP's base camp that had been in business for at least 20 years was also shaken. The political coach of the ruling party led by the Cai Yingwen government, instead of the economic priority, gave a head stick to drink.Intersection

The significance of Taiwan's nine -in -one election symbolizes the challenges of voters' key to the country and the people to say goodbye to the old era and stabilize the two sides of the strait to respond to the challenges of the global changes.The voters returned in this election and directly requested the high -level answers of the country and the people!(The author is current affairs commentator) The mainland should see the new public opinion (author: Zhao Chunshan)

The nine -in -one election belongs to the local level, but the impact of the political ecology of Taiwan after the election results and the spillover effect it produced.As far as Taiwan's political ecology is concerned, after the election, the political sector of Taiwan has moved sharply, and the political parties of the DPRK will begin internal power reorganization, and even political culture has added new variables.

As far as the political sector is concerned, the Kuomintang has held the New Taipei City and restored Taichung City, and the biggest change is the long -term governing Kaohsiung city of the Democratic Progressive Party.After the selection, in the south of the mudwater stream, the blue sky almost covered the green space.In just over two years in the DPP's governance, such a major power has been in power, and the central government is not able to blame the central government.

Involving the reorganization of the power structure of political parties, Han Liu has hit the core of the Kuomintang's power during the election period.The Kuomintang's guardians have difficulty playing the ticketing function of pan -blue supporters.Based on the political reality considerations of new and demanding, many candidates were even forced to cut with their predecessors during the election campaign.The same situation also appeared in the Democratic Progressive Party, and local candidates all tried to get rid of the governing burden that the central government was thrown off.Therefore, the leadership of their respective leaders may occur after the selection.Whether it belongs to that party, the future leadership elite must understand the grounding, and Charisma (charm), which shows the characteristics of personal leadership.

The DPP is accustomed to using the unified independence and ethnic issues to mobilize the masses and propagate the situation, but this election campaign obviously failed to work, because the issue of people's livelihood is the top priority of voters.Get the favor of light green, light blue and middle voters.This fully shows the maturity of Taiwan's democratic politics and culture.

Although cross -strait issues are not the focus of offense and defense of this election campaign, the changes in the political ecology of Taiwan mentioned above have directly or indirectly affected the cross -strait views.

In terms of the Kuomintang, no matter who has the dominance of the mainland policy in the future, the 1992 consensus of each table in the first China is still the mainstream of the party.The DPP was restricted by the Taiwan independence party, and the party lacked a political foundation for the establishment of cross -strait consensus.The Government results of the Tsai Ing -wen government have been severely examined in this election. The DPP is bound to make a thorough review on mainland policies. Is it closer to the 1992 consensus?Is it to maintain Tsai Ing -wen's three?Or the basic doctrine that falls to the party because of defeat?The DPP's choice is not only affecting cross -strait relations, but also affecting the presidential election in 2020.

The United States is the main factor that affects the development of cross -strait relations.Although the DPP's anti -Chinese colors coincide with the Trump administration's taste, any changes in Taiwan's political ecology will not shake the United States' cross -strait policy based on national interests.Trump regards Taiwan as a chess piece, but does not want to use it to use it to put the army on the other side.The United States also understands that the Kuomintang has obtained the power after the 2020 election, and it will not use the sacrifice of Taiwan -US relations as the cost of improving cross -strait relations.Therefore, the United States is not necessary to choose between the two parties and the people after the nine -in -one election.

Mainland China is a strategic height of the Taiwan presidential election in 2020 to see the local elections in Taiwan.For the leaders of the President of the State, 2020 is a turning point for the development of cross -strait relations.Because it was then the CCP's 100 years in 2021, and the 2022th National Congress of 2022.The mainland must be carefully evaluated by the public opinion released by this election in Taiwan.

First of all, if Beijing believes that the election results may cause the possibility of political party rotation after the 2020 election, it should be maintained to be a rational choice with the Cai government during the transition period.Because the mainland adopts any policy on Taiwan at this time, it is necessary to consider retaining the space that it will deal with the Kuomintang government in the future.Unless the Cai government changes the status quo at this time, forcing the mainland to take response measures;

Secondly, if the DPP will be resurrected in the 2020 presidential election defeat to continue to be administered, Beijing will continue to pressure Taiwan.EssenceIf the mainland judge Cai Yingwen, although the DPP chairman is resigned, but it is still possible to fight again, the pressure of the mainland will be less pressure; if the research is judged by other DPP people, it will be replaced by Tsai Ing -wen, and the mainland will be compared to compare.More strong pressure on pressure.

It can be imagined that after the election, the Taiwan faction will be busy cleaning the house; mainland China and the United States will also be busy with the competition between the two sides of the trade war.But looking at the 2020 presidential election, cross -strait relations will enter a sensitive period of blame from now on.Although all three parties in Taiwan and the United States may be able to play a change of the ball or wipe the ball at this time to test the opponent's policy bottom line.But I think, as a stakeholder, the three partiesPolitical authorities will avoid gently acting before 2020.Let the people of Taiwan decide their future with votes at that time!

(The author is Honorary Professor of the Institute of Mainland China of Tamkang University)