The Leader Summit of the 20th Group (G20) will be held in Buenos Aires, the capital of Argentina from November 30th to December 1st.The interaction between the Jite Association, Trump and Putin, the Brexit period is approaching, and the interaction between leaders of various countries and Saudi Crown Princes after Saudi Arabia reporters are murdered.
2018 is the tenth year of the G20 rising to the national leadership -level meeting since the global financial crisis.But compared with 2008 and 2009, the G20 has lost its vitality. He has participated in the Organization of the G20 Strategy and International Research Center (CSIS) Political Economics Research Center, Matthew Goodman, November 20th at 1 on November 20At the press conference on the G20 forward -looking press conference.
Goodman said that last year's summit was disappointing to a certain extent and controversial, especially on trade -related issues.I expect the summit to be the case again.The Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit held in Papua New Guinea last week was a preview of this situation: member states have no APEC communiqué for the first time in 25 years of APEC due to the differences in trade and bulletin.
APEC's 26th Informal Meeting of Leaders failed to publish a declaration of leaders at the end of the meeting.Geng Shuang, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said at a regular press conference on November 19 that during the meeting, the leaders of the meeting exchanged opinions on the trade issues that jointly care about, especially the multilateral trading system.Most members support multilateralism, maintain a multilateral trading system, and support the WTO to play a role.
Regarding strengthening and improving the issue of the World Trade Organization, China in favor of the WTO is advancing with the times and supports the necessary reforms of the WTO. However, reform must maintain the core value and basic principles of the WTO.Because the relevant process has not yet started, the parties have different views on related issues. They have to exchanged opinions in depth, reduce differences, and expand consensus.
Goodman predicts that the G20 summit may eventually have a communiqué or a statement of chairman country, but the language of trade may still become an obstacle and one of the most intense issues.In the past few years, the traditional language of opening up trade and oppositionism has balanced the use of peer -to -peer trade and trade defense measures in the United States, which is a compromise.If there is a bulletin release in the end, this kind of wording may appear again.
Regarding the to meet the heads of state and USA during the G20 summit, Goodman believes that they will have a North Korean issue and other common concerns, but trade will be the core topic of the meeting.The meeting was also the first meeting between the leaders of the two countries since China -US mutual tariffs.
Many experts believe that after the meeting between the two countries, 50%of the possibility will reach a ceasefire agreement.Goodman believes that the main leaders of US President Trump and Chinese President have motivated to put on hold on this dispute.
On November 20, the US stock market plummeted again, which will give Trump some motivation to reach a certain agreement without continuing tariffs.From a China perspective, its economic growth is slowing, and China has motivation to make this incident not affect its economic development.
However, experts and observers in the industry generally keep cautious about the results of the meeting between the two heads of state.Despite the reaching fire, the problem will not be solved.In the economic and other relationships between China and the United States, there will still be deep structural challenges.Goodman said.
He believes that the agreement that may be reached after the meeting is to delay the upgrading and expansion of tariffs. At the same time, the negotiation mechanisms on issues such as subsidies, industrial policies, and forced technology transfer have been established, and they are advancing forward.
Regarding the differences between the US and European trade, the European Commission President Juncker, Rongcc, visited the United States in July with the ceasefire agreement reached with the Trump administration, issued a positive statement.But honestly, we don't know where the US and Europe negotiations are. HEather Conley, the European project director of CSIS, pointed out that the U.S. tariffs on the European Union are still being implemented, and the EU's countermeasures against the United States are still reigning.It is not clear what the US -Europe negotiations will cover.
Therefore, even the ceasefire is no longer a solution.Conley said that observing any interaction between Junchen and Trump during G20 will help see how the next situation develops.
The G20 summit will focus on traditional issues: growth, financial stability, international architecture reform, financial architecture reform and other traditional issues. As the host country, Argentina has also added its own theme: mainly the impact of employment and technology on the workplace, infrastructure, infrastructureInvestment, sustainable food, etc.
Economic growth is expected to become one of the main issues.Although the global economy has performed well, due to the continuous interest rate hikes in the United States, the slowdown in China's economic growth, and the financial vulnerability of emerging markets, including Argentina, are concerned about economic growth, this will make this a theme of the dialogue between leaders of various countries.■
