China ’s social increase in October and new RMB loans are far inferior to expected, and social financing data has reached a low point in more than two years.Although a series of stable growth and wide credit policies have gone out in the second half of the year, the effective demand of the real economy has insufficient demand. The previous policy stimulus effect was obviously weakened. If this downturn will continue next month, confidence in the Chinese economy may be further founded.The loose policy needs to be shot again.
Analysts believe that the current confidence is the top priority. In addition to further expanding the scale of infrastructure and curbing the decline in corporate loans, the reduction and directional wide credit are still within the scope of the policy tools, while continuing to clear the monetary policyTransmission channels are also the focus of policy concern.
In addition, the voices of interest rate cuts have also emerged. Some analysts believe that in order to reduce the financing costs of the real economy more effectively, structural interest rate reduction can be considered.
If you look at the details, it is more reflected that the loan end is not good. The volume of 7-8 and two months is obvious. The original demand side is down, so this is unsustainable.Chen Zheng, a senior analyst at the Asset Management Department of China Merchants Bank.
Cai Hao, a senior researcher at the China Chief Economist Forum, also said that in October, the new loan of non -financial companies' new loans fell sharply, which attracted much attention, and 150.3 billion yuan was the lowest in the same period since 2010.Among them, medium- and long -term loans have been low since 2009.This shows that under the situation of turbulence and confidence in October, the production motivation of enterprises has declined significantly.
The People's Bank of China announced that the new RMB loan in October was 697 billion yuan, which was lower than the recruitment of 862 billion yuan in the previous Reuters, a new low since October last year;%, The medium value of Reuters increased by 8.4%.
According to central bank data, in the new RMB loan, the sub -department saw that the medium- and long -term loans of the resident department increased by 373 billion yuan in October; at the same time, the enterprise's medium- and long -term loans increased by 142.9 billion yuan, which was 385.7 billion yuan in September.The play was reduced by more than 60 %.
Chen Zheng also said that the decline in loan growth is more worrying, and the effective demand for enterprises is insufficient.If such data lasted for two months, confidence may be gone, and policies must be issued. It is possible to cut interest rates or other policies. In the early stage, conservative points can be structural interest rate cuts, that is, only the benchmark interest rate is reduced.
The central bank's data also showed that the increase in social financing in October was 728.8 billion yuan, which was 471.6 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and a large decrease of 70 % from 2.21 trillion yuan in the previous month.New low since the month.
The third -quarter monetary policy enforcement report released by the People's Bank of China last Friday states that it is necessary to supply the general gates of good currency, and flexibly use a combination of multiple monetary policy tools to reasonably arrange the tools and operations of the tools, strengthen forward -looking pre -adjustment, maintain liquidity, and maintain liquidity.Reasonable and abundant.
To achieve wide credit, you still need to make more efforts
Although in order to alleviate the tightening of credit pressure in the second half of the year, the regulatory layer has made heavy punch, but from October's financial data, the policy effect is still not obvious. To truly achieve wide credit, the policy may still make more efforts.
Tang Yue, executive general manager of Ping An Securities' Fixed Income Research Team, said that in October, data showed that the risk preferences of financial institutions declined and the demand for financing of the real economy fell.At present, the trend of active credit contraction will continue.Later, you need to observe the policy further to see how the policy is.
Zhou Hao, the chief economist of China Business Bank, said that the poor data in October explained two aspects. First, a pressure on the economy itself still exists, and the second is that the bank is still cautious, indicating that the bank does not fully follow the supervision of supervision.The requirements of the layer may still take the initiative to manage their own risks, rather than blindly bear the risks.
He believes that the policy in the future is not large, and it cannot be reduced by interest. The problem is that the problem is that banks have no risk preferences, and the effectiveness of monetary policy will have doubts.Maybe in the future, the central bank will consider more ways to directly provide credit support for the real economy to relax the directional policy.
Yang Hao, an analyst at the fixed income analyst of Nanjing Securities, said that the shrinking situation of physical financing demand is currently very severe, and the wide currency has not yet played a wide credit effect.On the one hand, the central bank will maintain a loose monetary policy, and even continue to increase the time to win the time to stabilize the growth and escort.
He also said that the decision -making level will also increase measures on the dredging monetary transmission mechanism and restore credit creation as soon as possible. In addition to the directional support for private enterprises and small and micro enterprises, it will also rationalize the mechanism as soon as possibleEstablishment.
Liu Changjiang, a macro -strategy analyst of AVIC Trust, pointed out that looking forward to the future, the meeting between the Sino -US leaders at the end of the month is very important. If the talks can be obtained, the situation will improve significantly.Now it is mainly in lack of confidence. Entrepreneurs and residents are insufficient confidence and policies are positive. Everyone still chooses to wait and see.
He believes that in the future, the confidence of enterprises and residents must be boosted, and from the government's singing unicorn to a real many households.No matter how positive policies are, companies and residents need to cooperate.You can bring the cow to the river, but the cow is not drinking water.
Author: Bian Jing
Source: Reuters Chinese Network
