There is a phenomenon in the election research. It usually refers to the momentum of the president (executive head) candidate to lift the National Assembly (public opinion representative) candidates.As the candidate of the mayor of Kaohsiung, not only the momentum of the candidate candidates of the Kaohsiung city, but also from the north to the south to make the potential for the mayor of the Kuomintang and county mayor in other counties and cities;I am supporting it. The candidates for the mayor of the Kuomintang and county in other counties and cities even ran to Kaohsiung, just hoping to have a little enthusiasm and momentum in their own constituencies.For a while, the political brightness of South Korean Yu surpassed the sun, and the light was shining, and almost all Kuomintang candidates benefited.
This seems to be not just the feeling of the media, because the recent public opinion survey results show that the Kuomintang candidates on the South Korean Yu platform have become the momentum.Ke Wenzhe.Therefore, the media review and the keyboard analysis of the villagers directly connected these two phenomena, called the Korean spillover effect.
Honestly, I dare not say that these two are inevitable, because there are no time -sex data to analyze.However, when other environmental conditions remain unchanged and seem to have only one variable that causes changes, we can reasonably assume that the change from this variable is the influence of this variable.So basically we can assume that the Kuomintang candidate's momentum is generally rising. To some extent, it should be or most likely the spy effect of Korean Yu's personal whirlwind.
How strong is Han Li, you can only wait until the results of the voting on November 24, but the subsequent political influence of Han Li can be expected.Regardless of whether to win the mayor of Kaohsiung, South Korea ’s Yu will change existing political myths to prove that the Kuomintang is not a chance to fight again.
Furthermore, the wave of South Korean Yu set off in Kaohsiung actually refuted the DPP's lecture on the Democratic Progressive Party to send watermelon.Watermelon theory is nothing more than the Kuomintang's entrusted candidate that can be accepted by deep green constituencies such as Kaohsiung.In other words, the Kuomintang lost to the south in the past, and then couldn't get it back again, because the voters were tired of the result of the traditional Kuomintang politicians, and also proved that the traditional Kuomintang thinking could not be accepted by voters in the central and southern parts.
But whether Han Liu can change the pattern of the Kuomintang, in fact, I am pessimistic.Regardless of whether the mayor of Kaohsiung's surname is Han in the future, at best it is just an independent force in the Kuomintang, or it is incompatible with the leadership of the Kuomintang, and it will be a grid.Retrinating the Kuomintang.Therefore, this power will be buffer and even melted by the old Kuomintang's deep pool.
After all, South Korea ’s Yu is just a single person. Suddenly, on the one hand, pan -blue supporters have grieved for a long time under the Kuomintang of the Kuomintang. On the other hand, the DPP’ s governance is too bad.Finding emotional exit and hope, so it is not bad for King Kong, which is made of South Korea today.But if there is only one Korean Yu, after the election, it is just a relatively large wave.
In this election, the biggest winner was the Kuomintang. The results of the election were not bad, but what was worried is that while the Korean Liu supported the Kuomintang, it also gave the old Kuomintang a chance to be gornerating.However, things may not necessarily be so bad. If the mayor of Kaohsiung's surname is Han, the new forces of the Kuomintang south will rise, and the inside of the old Kuomintang's party will naturally gather south.A little hope of reform.
(The author is a professor at Tamkang University and Dean of the School of Global Development)
