Industrial and Commercial Times Society

Affected by the intensified situation of the Sino -US trade war, the intermediate price of the RMB exchange rate has almost been degraded by 7 yuan ($ 1). Fortunately, Xuanxuan temporarily dismissed the 7 -breaking crisis due to the call and meeting of the leaders of China and the United States.However, the political and economic confrontation structure of both sides is rigid, and the trade war may be difficult to end in the short term. Therefore, it is still difficult to eliminate the risk of breaking the RMB exchange rate in the future.As a policy deployment, in case the RMB exchange rate will inevitably break 7 in the future, it can effectively control its negative effects and stabilize the overall economic confidence.

On the morning of November 1st, the RMB exchange rate was announced on the morning of November 1st. It wrote a new low record of 6.9670 yuan for $ 1, and it was only a shortage of the 7 yuan mark, and it was about to break 7.This is because at the end of October, the United States announced the sanction of the mainland state -owned memory factory, Fujian Jinhua, which intensified the Sino -US trade war and also impacted the mainland exchange market.

But it is very dramatic. On November 1st, good news came out later, saying that US President Trump took the initiative to call on the phone with the leaders of the mainland President, exchanged opinions from each other, and met at the end of this month.Group) Argentine summits conduct talks, including talking about Sino -US trade issues.

This news indicates that the Sino -US trade war is expected to ease, so it immediately boosted the RMB buying gas on the market.Broken 7 crisis.

However, it is difficult for the Sino -US trade war to disappear.The United States has suppressed the rise of China, and the comprehensive confrontation pattern of both sides of the shaped sides has been very rigid. For example, the US Secretary of State Pompeo has repeatedly shot the old tone a few days ago.National Security Challenge.Under such circumstances, the United States expected to be unwilling to easily recruit troops in the Sino -US trade war. In fact, the United States has gradually increased the scope of tariff punishment and amplitude of Chinese products, and there is no sign of slowing down.

Therefore, the impact wave of the Sino -US trade war on the RMB exchange rate will continue to attack.The renminbi rose for a moment, and it does not guarantee that the 7 crisis will no longer occur.In this case, the People's Bank of China is currently necessary to prepare for the plan. When the RMB exchange rate has to break through the 7 yuan mark in the future, it can reduce its negative effects on the mainland financial system and even the overall economy.

The first thing that people should do is to dilute the excessive value of the 7 yuan exchange rate mark in mainland society and see the breaking 7 very serious mentality.If this mentality has not been widened, the exchange rate of the RMB will really break 7 in the future. I am afraid that the overall economic confidence in the mainland will be severely frustrated. At that time, a large amount of funds will flow out and domestic investment ebb, which will be foreseeable consequences.

Strictly speaking, it is difficult for mainland society to adapt to the exchange rate and break 7, which is the cause of the People's Bank of China.In the past 10 years, the pedestrian has always adhered to the bottom line of 7 yuan, and the middle price has been degraded to the 7 yuan mark several times.It is necessary to block the renminbi.In this way, of course, the Broken 7 in the society will be serious.

In fact, the marketization mechanism of the RMB exchange rate has long been operating and has been gradually strengthened. Therefore, the exchange rate level is increasingly unnecessary to strictly adhere to a certain level.The pedestrian might as well promote the exchange rate to show greater the elasticity of the rising and depreciated, so that it can be flexed and extended at any time, and fully exclude the exchange rate trend of one side.Such a rising derogation often alternate, after the social see -through, people will not care about a few dollars; even if they break 7 in the future, they will also attract a base to buy a plate and raise the RMB back.

Secondly, pedestrians should start to advocate the concept of exchange rates in the general interval to allow the society to understand that the market -oriented RMB exchange rate is a normal state of exchange rate.Yuan, but it will also rise more than 6 yuan, not in the 6 to 7 yuan communities; just like the international currency exchange rate of the United States, Europe, and Japan, often performed in a full range of performance in a few years.In other words, if it can expand the exchange rate in society, the pressure of people's observation should be reduced accordingly.

In addition, the People's Bank of China will need to optimize the exchange rate policy and interest rate policies in the future to make it more coordinated and accurate, and efficiently adjust the traffic and stocks of domestic and cross -border transactions in China.

A while ago, in the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the mainland financial community legendary that when pedestrian necessary, the RMB interest rate would also be reduced to save the economy.It is unknown whether there is such an idea, but this is something that cannot be done at this stage.Imagine that the renminbi is depreciating. If you add interest rates at the same time, the funds of the mainland will inevitably scramble to escape and let the renminbi depreciate.The correct policy supporting should be that the exchange rate depreciation and matching interest rates increase or stabilize.

In short, in the short -term difficulty of the Sino -US trade war, the RMB exchange rate should break away from 7 sacrifice as soon as possible, and embark on a new way to closely connect the economic and financial situation.This requires meticulous policy deployment of the People's Bank of China; it can be done now.