Kobaya Fan Division
On June 12, 2018, the heads of the United States and North Korea met in Singapore. The international community's expectations of North Korea's non -nuclearization rose.However, as time goes by, the attitude of North Korea ’s labor party chairman Kim Jong -un has become increasingly clear.
On the other hand, regarding the Korean War, according to the judgment of US President Trump, the final war may be announced in the future not far.Looking at the attitude of South Korean President Moon Jae -in, it makes people feel that even if it does not announce the end of the Korean War, the era of north -south confrontation is getting closer to the end.
Of course, the end of the war is worthy of welcome.However, with the end of the Korean War, it will also bring tremendous changes to East Asia's security environment.Because this means that the front line of confrontation between the United States and China and Russia will change, the opposition between the Korean Peninsula is eliminated, and the confrontation between the United States has not been eliminated.
And the forefront of the United States is Japan. If the Korean War ended, the U.S. military in South Korea has lost its meaning. In order to obtain the support of American society, Trump has many considerations in the National Declaration of the Korean War and the withdrawal of the US military in South Korea.After the U.S. U.S. military withdrawing troops or narrowing the scale, it still needs to fight against China and Russia, and Trump will ask Japan to make up for this vacant position.
In addition, a recent thing that has obviously allows Japan to stand at the front line of China and Russia, which is Trump's announcement of withdrawal from the China Guide Treaty. The full name is that the Soviet Union and the United States eliminated the two -country medium and short -range missile treaties.Trump expressed his withdrawal from the treaty on the grounds of violation of the treaty.After the Cold War, Russia expanded its power to the North Atlantic Treaty (NATO) to the east, and developed new missiles for the crisis of Israel, Iran, India, Pakistan and other countries, holding short -range ballistic missiles, and developed new missiles.On the contrary, Russia believes that the United States violates the treaty.
Another reason for the United States to exit the Treaty of China is the rise of China.The Guide Treaty is a treaty signed by the United States and the former Soviet Union in 1987.China is not restricted by this treaty. With the development of the economy, China is actively equipped with a medium -range or quasi -medium -range ballistic missile.The United States withdrawing the Treaty Treaty is equivalent to announced that China has the advantage of nuclear weapons in this field.
The DF-21 range developed by China can cover Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand, including South West Islands.And on the basis of DF-211, the development of DF-21D against ship ballistic missiles can prevent the US Navy from approaching the Chinese home and make the United States a sense of crisis.
For the United States and Russia, the original China -Guidance Treaty has lost its meaning.
However, in order to suppress China, if the United States is equipped with a middle -range ballistic missile with a ground launch, it will encounter huge problems.Unlike Europe, there are no countries in Asia that can make nuclear weapons in the United States.To this end, the United States may give priority to the development of air, water, and water launch cruise missiles.Nevertheless, Japan, which stabilizes social security in the political situation, may be the possibility of re -examining the three principles of nuclear non -nuclear without nuclear non -nuclear in the future.
In addition, under the economic and military pressure on China, China's military pressure on Taiwan is also strengthening.The Taiwan issue is related to the legality of the CCP. The United States actively supports Taiwan's attitude and Taiwan's independence, which strongly stimulates Chinese leadership.Although these are not directly aimed at Japan's threats, they are all exacerbating military tensions around Japan.
The changes in the security environment as described above may allow Japan to change the security strategy built by restraint as the center, and consider responding to strategic deployment after the occurrence of surrounding affairs.With the basis of Japan and the United States as the basis of diplomatic and security, Japan must re -discuss the possible ways of the United States and Japan alliances and the role that Japan should play.
The author is the chief researcher at Nagawa Heping Consortium in Japan
