Zhang Yun: Why do you want to improve Sino -Japanese relations with low -key and effec

Horizontal World

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe officially visited China. This is the first official visit to China in seven years of the Japanese Prime Minister. The two sides have signed a series of cooperation documents.According to reports, next year, Chinese leaders will visit Japan, which will bring new thrust for Sino -Japanese relations that have gradually embarked on normal tracks, and also bring a favorable momentum to improving relations between the two countries.

At the same time, it is also necessary to calmly and comprehensively analyze the favorable and unfavorable factors of the improvement of the current Sino -Japanese relations, set the expectations of the expectations moderately, accurately grasp the Japanese mentality, seize the opportunity to improve Sino -Japanese relations and improve the time.

First of all, Abe's re -election of domestic political situation is certain.Abe's third re -election as the president of the self -oriented party means that his prime minister's term will be in 2021, surpassing the sum of the five prime ministers of Congkukota Kangfu, Akoyama, Hatoyama Yoshiko, Naota Naota, and Noda.Since the second administration of Abe, he has won three House of Representatives elections. Two Senate elections must admit that Abe shows strong political ability.

Although Abe's economics is very controversial, the economy has increased, and Abe's performance statement should be acknowledged. It has obtained the affirmation of the Liberal Democratic Party and the public. No leader can compete with him.

The survey of Nikkei shows that in September, the support rate of political parties was 48%of the Liberal Democratic Party and less than 10%in the wild party.Although Abe once again listened to the Prime Minister in 2012, to a large extent relying on toughness to China, the political needs that touched China to obtain popularity now are not great.The definition of domestic politics in Japan helps maintain policy coherence. Strong leaders also mean that domestic politics is relatively small in diplomacy, which is a powerful condition for improvement of Sino -Japanese relations.

And if Abe can better transfer power to the next President of the Liberal Democratic Party, he is likely to continue his political influence for a long time behind the scenes after he stepped down.In this sense, his political goals have completely surpassed the basic needs of the survival of the short -lived cabinet in the past, and it is possible to think about some medium and long -term goals, such as the medium and long -term vision of the future development of Japanese countries.

Second, Abe in the last few years of his term, hoping to leave political achievements and stable Sino -Japanese relations.Abe has achieved the constitutional interpretation and revision of the group's self -defense rights that has not been realized in the past few years. There are reasons to believe that in the final term of office time, it may focus on restoration of constitutional amendments in order to leave political achievements.

However, from the perspective of polls, most people are not active, and the main concerns are in pensions. In terms of economy, consumption taxes have increased to 10%, further industry structure reforms, and the structural structure of the medical care systemReform, these Japanese structural reforms, the past prime ministers are either too short or unable to do with their courage, and Abe may be realized now.

If the Japanese economy is rejuvenated, Apei can truly fulfill the dream of a great prime minister.To a certain extent, they are inseparable from strengthening the relationship with China's economic relations.

Although the competition between China and Japan in geopolical economy will continue, there is also a need for close cooperation with China's economy. This kind of competitive relationship will become an important feature of Sino -Japanese relations in the future.

Third, in the next few years, the important agenda in Japan will need to stabilize the certainty of Sino -Japanese relations.In the next three years, Abe will go through several major events in Japanese political life, including the official visit to Japan in the 2019 G20 Osaka Summit and the official visit to the Chinese President, the Emperor of the Emperor and the New Emperor, and the Tokyo Olympics. These areAll need the cooperation of China.

In diplomacy, although the private relationship with Trump is very private, this has not allowed Japan to avoid Trump's economic suppression. Although Japan and the United States look good, they have no actual effect.Trump pursues the principle of priority of the United States, allowing Japan to further strengthen the Japanese and American alliances and obtain domestic politics in the country.Japan -US relations are uncertain. At the same time, Japan, Russia, Russia, Japan and South Korea have not made a bad progress. The negotiations between Japan and the DPRK have not yet begun. Sino -Japanese relations are rare and possibilities.

The two uncertainty of improving Sino -Japanese relations

At present, the main uncertainties of Sino -Japanese relations have shifted, from the insufficient willingness of the Japanese government to the two uncertainty of the United States and the Japanese cognition of China.

The Trump administration's awareness of the improvement of Sino -Japanese relations affects the Japanese government's willingness to improve Sino -Japanese relations.Abe proposed the general blueprint for post -war Japanese diplomacy after being elected president for the third time. The first point was the basis of the Japanese and American alliance. Before that, it was clearly written into the national security strategy.Concentrate.

The Trump administration is conducting comprehensive criticism and suppression policies for China. Whether it is trade, intellectual property, or Taiwan and South China Sea, Japan must maintain the relationship between Japan and the United States.It can show the tendency to directly and obviously sing against the United States.

This means that Japan will not break the relationship with the United States due to a moment. This is why facing Trump's punitive tariffs, withdrawing from the cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), and demanding bilateral trade negotiations in Japan.Strive directly with the United States.

Abe specially attaches great importance to his personal relationship with Trump, and repeatedly emphasizes the importance of the basics of Japan and the United States. In international occasions, the Indo -Pacific strategy is emphasized and the relationship with European Europe is emphasized.The tendency of relationship.

Japanese ships participated in the cruise of the South China Sea on the way to Vietnam. In the World Trade Organization, with Europe and the United States, they put forward opinions on new terms such as subsidies for state -owned enterprises.

One of the goals behind these measures is to make the United States think that Japan and China improved relations, but it does not mean that China and Japan are close, but in the basis of the Japanese and American alliance bases, the development of the development of the United States and the United States alliances, and cooperation in other regions to cooperate with other regionsOn the basis of the US strategy, it will be the prerequisite for Japan to improve the relationship between Japan to weaken alliances that may weaken alliance's relations with Japan.

The second uncertain factor is that the Japanese people's negative awareness of China is still strong.The polls announced by NPO in October 2018 show that Chinese people who have a good impression or relatively better in Japan have reached 42.2%, which is the highest since the investigation in 2005.70%of Japan said that it has a good opinion, no goodwill is 56.1%, and the last time it was 66.8%.

In contrast to this, the Japanese have a negative impression of 86.3%of China. Although it has decreased two percentage points from last year, it is still high. The positive impression is only 13.1%, an increase of only 1.6 percentage points from last year.This means that despite the improvement of the relationship between the government, it has no positive impact on the people's awareness of China, and how to make Japanese people's cognition of China is very critical.

Low -key is not equal to inaction

For China, it is necessary to accurately grasp the complex psychology of Japan. On the one hand, it is necessary to avoid too high -profile publicity China -Japan friendship, let alone expect the two countries to establish a united front together and publicly criticize the United States unilateralism.Improve speed cannot surpass Japan -US relations.

In this sense, the idea of disassembling the two cannot be dismantled because of contradictions between Japan and the United States, because it is not only unrealistic, but also reaction.Japan will be more worried about the rebound of the United States and the shaking of its own strategic foundation.In the case where China and Japan's strategic mutual trust is still fragile, from the perspective of Japan, if Japan abandon the Japanese -American alliance base, it may mean that the two sides have fallen.

Therefore, on the one hand, it is necessary to see the objective needs of the Abe cabinet to improve China -Japan relations, and favorable conditions are also increasing, but on the other hand, it is also necessary to see that excessive high -profile will let Japan retreat. What is important is how to do it in a low -key thingSee practical results.

At present, the basic situation of the Japanese people's cognitive negatives has not improved, allowing the strengthening of Sino -Japanese economic relations to strengthen the actual effect and become the cockpit stone of Sino -Japanese relations, which will play a basic role in improving social relations.