On October 31, the concerns of the Central Political Bureau's meeting increased the economic downturn, and the confidence of stable private enterprises was emphasized again.
At the end of July, the judgment of the Central Political Bureau meeting on the economic situation was stable and changed. Based on this, the economic downlink pressure increased, and some enterprises had more difficulty in operating.The exposed expression shows that the decision -making level believes that the economic situation is more severe.
(Word) more direct than before.Lu Ting, chief economist of Nomura Securities China, told Caixin reporters that the increase in downward pressure on the current economy is the result of multiple factor superposition. In addition to the Sino -US trade war, it also includes the growth of credit expansion in the downlink cycle, automobiles, construction machinery and other industries.Obviously slowing down, housing prices and sales of third- and fourth -tier cities are close to the end.In addition, measures such as equity pledge and restrictions on the issuance of overseas US dollar bonds began in 2015, and the negative effects are emerging.
The Politburo Meeting said that the current economic situation is the result of the common effects of long -term and short -term, internal and external factors, and profound changes in the external environment, and some policy effects need to be further released.Niu Pian Kun, director of the macro -strategy of Huading Securities, believes that this indicates that internal priority and me as the main thing are that the core is to unswervingly promote high -quality development.In the case of irresistible external, maintaining strategic determination, more energy will be placed in internal economic development and reform, and in the fourth quarter, focusing on promoting the expansion of domestic demand that has been deployed in the fourth quarter as soon as possible.
Since October, the two high -levels have shouted many times without shaking, and have released signals to stabilize private enterprises.The Politburo Meeting once again mentioned that they insisted on not shaken, and proposed to study and solve the difficulties encountered in the development of private enterprises and small and medium -sized enterprises.
Guo Lei, the chief macro analyst of Guangfa Securities, predicts that there may be relevant policies and rules during the year.He believes that the problem of private and small and medium -sized enterprises to a certain extent is related to the upstream price of supply shrinkage. Credit binaryization leads to the concentration of financial resources. These two logic has begun to ease in the border, but the substantial improvement needs to certainly need to certainly need to be certain.time.
On the day of the Politburo Conference, the State Council announced the guidance opinion on maintaining shortcomings in the field of infrastructure construction (hereinafter referred to as guidance).There are signs of relaxation.
After the Politburo meeting at the end of July, the issuance of special bonds of 1.35 trillion local governments accelerated significantly, becoming the main source of funds for infrastructure supplementary shortcomings.Subject to local governments hidden debt high -voltage supervision and state -owned enterprise asset -liability constraints, although the growth rate of infrastructure investment has stabilized, it is still at a low level.
The guidance emphasizes the regulating local governments' debt financing and controlling the financial lsquo; gates rsquo; while firmly adhere to the bottom line of no systemic risk, it also proposes a reasonable guarantee of the normal financing needs of the financing platform company.
Compared with the notice of further doing a good job in the quality and efficiency of the real economy issued by the CBRC issued in August, the guidance is relatively loose to define the reasonable financing needs of the financing platform.Expand to the risk of break risk of prevention of hidden debt funds.Especially for the first time, it is clearly stated that if the scale of the hidden debt of the local government is not repaid, it is difficult to repay the hidden debt of the stock.turnover.Niwu Kun believes that the looseness of debt constraints will make infrastructure a highlight of the fourth quarter.
Sun Binbin, chief analyst of Tianfeng Securities's fixed income, said that the guidance gave a clear signal to the new financing of projects under construction, but whether it can be observed whether it can be implemented, including the policy of promoting financing landing, as well as financial institutions, and financial institutionsAttitude to new financing.The key to the resolution of the hidden debt is whether it can open the re -financing channel of the hidden debt of the stock.Whether you can participate in the rejuvenation of the hidden debt of the deposit.
At present, the market is generally expected that the special local government bonds that have been accelerated previously issued will play a certain stable role in infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter. In addition, the environmental protection limitation of environmental protection is still relaxed compared with last year, and export factors are still existing in the short term.Slowly slowly.
The first half of next year will be more difficult.Lu Ting believes that the economic downward pressure on the fourth quarter of this year will increase, but it is not the most difficult time.He believes that China needs to maintain a certain degree of tolerance on the downward of economic growth and appropriately reduce the growth goals. The policy level needs to further launch tax reduction measures.■
