Current affairs perspective

As early as the former U.S. President Obama, the strategy of cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) and return to Asia is considered an important measure to suppress China's rise.For a while, whether China and the United States will fall into the trap of Xunxione have become one of the most concerned topics in politics and academic circles.

To this day, the Sino -US trade war has intensified and has reached the level of unprecedented history.Xiu Xide Mantra has shrouded in the heads of China and the United States.On October 4, US Vice President Pence's speech at the Hudson Institute accused China of the infringement of the United States in terms of economy, politics, and technology, which made people have reason to worry that competition between China and the United States continued to slide to the abyss.

In fact, from the perspective of the development of the Sino -US trade war alone, the dispute over the Xiu Xidide's trap has become more and more obvious.On May 20 this year, the Chinese delegation represented by the Vice Premier Liu He of the State Council of China, and the US delegation represented by US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin issued a joint statement in Beijing, stating that as long as the following four aspects have reached specific aspectsAgreement, the Sino -US trade war can be avoided: First, China will double the energy imports, and the import of agricultural products will increase by 35%to 40%;

Second, the two parties are committed to expanding the manufacturing trade and service trade; third, strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights; fourth, the two parties encourage two -way investment and strive to create a fair business environment.

According to data in 2017, China imported about US $ 60 billion in energy products, and about US $ 25 billion in US agricultural products were imported, accounting for two -thirds of the US global agricultural exports.

The first point that China has promised that on the basis of the original, China will import more than $ 60 billion in energy products and $ 10 billion in agricultural products by the end of 2018.China has promised to complete an additional 70 billion US dollars of additional imports in just half a year, which can be said to be unprecedented.The sincerity of China is evident.

Although there are no details (originally scheduled to negotiate later), the Chinese side has at least held an open -minded attitude towards the United States in terms of intellectual property rights, the open service industry, investment access and national treatment.

However, on the third day of the 5.20 joint statement, Trump kicked off the trade war on the grounds that the statement was unfavorable to the United States.Trump's outsiders caused an uproar from world media including the United States.

So that after the United States and Europe issued a joint statement on the resolution of trade frictions on July 25, the Wall Street Journal and other mainstream American media said that I hope that Trump's shelf life of this joint statement is longer than the Sino -US 5.20 joint statement.

It is hard to imagine that the 5.20 joint statement is just Mnuchin's personal wishes.With Trump's style of acting, if Mnuchin dares to do so bolder, he has been kicked out of the Trump administration, and it is impossible to sit on the position of the Minister of Finance so far.Trump's outburst was because the eagle beside him was unwilling to see China and the United States reconcile, and persuaded the president to change the strings, and the curse of Xungendide's trap opened.

Therefore, the trap between Scholars between China and the United States cannot be avoided, at least the United States does not want to avoid it.On the other hand, China has not adhered to Deng Xiaoping's policies to keep the policies, which led to some of its policies that need to be reviewed, but it was not the main reason for the Sino -US trade war.Even if Deng Gong's strategy is re -pursuing Deng Gong's tactics, the Sino -US trade war cannot be avoided or resolved.

Harvard scholar Graham Allison studied showed that in the past 500 years, a total of 16 traps in the world had appeared in the world, only four times to avoid war.It is worth noting that the two traps of trap (US Soviet Union and Germany -Britain -France) after World War II did not cause war

EssenceBecause the use of modern weapons is unbearable in the world.The worst result of the Sino -US dispute was similar to the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union.

Of course, even the Cold War is not the blessing of China and the United States, and even the people of the world.In the face of the trade war and even the trap of Xunxidd, how should China deal with it?

Many scholars in China have advocated to stop the war quickly, because trade is crucial for China's development.Moreover, as a trade surplus country, the loss of the Sino -US trade war to China is far greater than the United States.However, on October 1st, Trump expressed his statement in the White House that although China was very willing to negotiate, the United States felt that it was too early.

The trade war is the long -lasting move in the United States. With the Trump administration's hawks, if you want to solve it in the short term, it depends on the sincerity of the United States, not the Chinese side.Since the initiative in the short term is in the United States, the wish of the Lord and the faction may be just wishful thinking.

In fact, the difference between the so -called master and faction and the main war in the current Chinese scholars' circle is just to quickly and promote war.There is no objection to this ultimate goal.So how can China promote peace in the middle and long term?

The author believes that China should be motivated by pressure and forced domestic reforms to speed up.Promoting economic development is the best means to fight against the pressure of the United States.In fact, opening up is not the purpose, but the means of forcing domestic reform.After China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, China quickly enjoyed the dividend brought about by trade liberalization, and the rapid growth of trade and economy has established the position of China's world's largest trading country and the second largest economy.

Instead of destroying China's manufacturing, WTO has allowed China to occupy a large number of international markets.The reason is precisely because in the mid -1990s, in order to deal with the challenge of the WTO, China began to seriously implement state -owned enterprises in the manufacturing industry, stop, and transfer, and greatly reduced the barriers of private enterprises.The manufacturing industry has laid a solid foundation for the success of China after 2001.

Now, under the pressure of the United States, on the one hand, it should be strived for reason, and on the other hand, it must follow the trend to transform the pressure of the United States into power and greatly develop domestic market reforms.

Its focus is mainly on two aspects: on the one hand, China should accelerate the implementation of the market negative list, demolish market access barriers in various fields, and allow private capital to participate in market competition fairly.On the other hand, the change of government functions should be reflected in the conversion of supervision and management, reducing the control of the market, focusing on strengthening the supervision of competitive behaviors, and building a fair, transparent and efficient business system.

In a sense, the current battle is to win valuable time for domestic companies to welcome more direct and fierce international competition. In fact, the domestic economic reform has reached the point where I don't wait.

At the same time, the opening of other countries is countermeasures to the United States.The development of the international trend is relatively clear: the tariffs cannot be kept, and the market cannot be closed.Therefore, China should follow the trend and use its own efforts to compare the US trade sticks through its own open measures and win the world's trust and support for China.

Regarding the open requirements of major economies such as Japan and Europe, China needs to reach as soon as possible to show the world's serious attitude towards the open commitment to openness.At the same time, China should actively participate in the discussion of the WTO reform, and promote bilateral and multilateral high -level trade and investment negotiations such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) and Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP).

On October 6, the Ministry of Commerce of China stated that China is launching the signing and upgrading of 27 bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements, which is compared with the titles of rejection clauses (for China) in the non -market economy countries in the US -Mexico -Canada Free Trade Agreement.

Sino -US competition and even confrontation are existing. The hope of its resolution depends on the United States in the short term, but in the long run, it depends on China.With a more open market and the reform of a more compliance with the business environment, the support of major economies of China is the best strategy for China to race with time and compete with the United States.

The author is the Dean of the Institute of Faculty of the Guanggu Free Trade Research Institute of China Huazhong University of Science and Technology