Shen Jianguang: Dont miss the opportunity period for the cooling war of the trad

Shen Jianguang: The more pessimism, the more serious the situation is explained; the lower the expectations, the more hope of negotiation.The G20 meeting or the precious window period for the cooling of the trade war at the end of the year needs to be cherished.

At present, the parties from the United States to avoid the upgrading of the trade war between China and the United States to a comprehensive trade war, preventing 200 billion product tariffs from rising from 10%to 25%is generally pessimistic.For example, in the discussion of the Sino -US trade war and global economy in Beijing last week in Beijing, the President of the US Chamber of Commerce Bi Ailun said that the possibility of a Sino -US trade agreement was very small because both parties had no contact.Most of the domestic government staff and scholars I have contacted are also very low in the termination of the trade war.

However, the author believes that the more pessimism, the more serious the situation is; the lower the expectations, the more hope of negotiation.In my opinion, the G20 meeting at the end of November or the valuable window period of cooling the trade war at the end of the year needs to be cherished.

In fact, most people currently have too high expectations for the ease of the Sino -US trade war, mainly from the following considerations: First, on September 24, the United States has imposed a 10%tariff on US $ 200 billion in goods on China on September 24The negotiations between China and the United States once fell into a stagnation stage; the second was that the price of the United States had risen in price, hoping that China would make more promises in state -owned enterprise subsidies, intellectual property rights, and Made in China 2025, and extended economic issues to many fields such as diplomacy and politics.Short -term differences in China and the United States seem to be unable to reconcile;

Third, the United States treats both the negotiating attitude, and it is unable to judge its bottom line and real intentions. For example, on the one hand, it means that the trade war has a talk, and on the other hand, if the Sino -US leaders' conversations cannot make progress, the United States is preparing to announce in early December that it will be announced in early December.Tariffs are levied on all remaining imported goods.

In this context, how likely to avoid a comprehensive Sino -US trade war?Relatively speaking, the author is not as pessimistic as most judgments in the market.In my opinion, seize the critical time of the G20 Sino -US high -level meeting in November, and delay the trade war to further upgrade to a 25%tariff on US $ 200 billion.Sex.In fact, from the aspects of the current performance of the US economy, the policy orientation and attitude release of both China and the United States, some positive signs are appearing.

From the perspective of the United States, the author gave a speech in Shanghai in August (the trade war is pessimistic, and the United States is also anxious).In my opinion, although Trump treats the trade war aggressively, the trade war is never a stable profit for the United States.The US economic trend, financial market fluctuations, domestic political direction and corporate circles will all become key variables that affect the future of the United States' policy orientation of trade war.

In terms of financial markets, the United States appeared in the United States in October.As of the closing of October 26, the S & P 500 Index, the Dow Jones Industrial Index, and the Nasdaq Index fell 9.3%, 8.4%, and 11.9%compared with the annual highs, respectively.At the same time, the 10 -year US Treasury yield rose along the way, rising to a high level of 3.256%on October 9, refreshing the highest level since 2012.The huge fluctuations in the US financial market highlight the panic of investors. On the one hand, it is related to the fundamental factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and high valuations, and on the other hand, it is also affected by the uncertainty of the trade war.

From the perspective of US economic fundamentals, the US economy reaches a phased peak is a high probability event.In the third quarter, the US economy exceeded 3.5%, which was mainly closely related to the improvement of the profit improvement of tax reform companies and the increase in increased consumption expenditure for residential salary.However, with the disappearance of the benefits of tax reform next year, the negative impact of the trade war will appear, and the US fiscal policy space has become smaller and smaller, and the US economy may be under pressure.In the global economic outlook released by IMF in October, the US economic growth rate is expected to slow to 2.5%in 2019, which is 0.2 percentage points from the expected value in April this year.

In addition, the trade war may push up the level of inflation in the United States.Among Trump's 200 billion US dollars of tariffs on China, furniture and leather products are included in the scope of tariffs on China and Canada. Among these two types of products, the United States imported from China to account for more than half of its imports.Increasing tariffs will undoubtedly increase the pressure on domestic commodity prices.If Trump further increases the goods from China, considering the current 90 % of the umbrellas in the United States, 80 % of toys, 70 % of the headdress, 60 % of the luggage, more than 50 % of shoes, and textile products importsFrom China, it will also harm the interests of American consumers.

In addition, the upwardness of inflation made the United States have to tighten monetary policy and continue to raise interest rates. This is also what Trump is unwilling to see it.Further increase.

From the perspective of American companies, the impact of the trade war on the cost of American companies has begun to appear.For example, Caterpillar, the world's largest building equipment manufacturer, recently said that due to the rise in import tariffs and freight rates of steel, the company has generated an additional cost of about $ 40 million in the last quarter.Ford in the United States has stated in September that steel tariffs have led the company's profits to a decrease of $ 1 billion.

In addition, Boeing also stated that last year, Chinese airline's business accounted for 30%of the company's total business volume. Long -term trade warfare will be unfavorable to Boeing. At present, Boeing will consider the first time to leave the United States for the first time.Delivery center.In addition, many members of the United States have recently taken action to actively promote the Trump administration to allow enterprises to apply for the latest round of tariffs on Chinese products.

For Trump himself, the internal and external political pressures that he are facing today are not small.Inside, Trump has won the political goal of the mid -term parliamentary election in early November.Considering that the current election situation is increasingly beneficial to the Republican Party, once the Republican Party won the majority of the two houses in the midterm elections, seeking re -election will become the main task of Trump, and it is critical to avoid the decline in the US economy in the future.Foreign -out, in -depth investigations in Russia, gaps with the European Union, traditional Japanese allies, and Turkish's step -by -step against Saudi Arabia to combat Trump's prestige in the Middle East.If coupled with a comprehensive confrontation against China, Trump is difficult to be at ease.

As far as China is concerned, the consideration of avoiding the upgrading of the trade war has always been there. After all, the impact of the spread of the trade war on China's economy is far -reaching.Although in the short term, American importers and retailers have some room for adjustment, and the depreciation of the RMB and the increase in export tax rebate rates will slow down a lot of pressure.However, in the long run, due to the difficulty of replacing the export market in the United States, the trade war on investment prospects, entrepreneur confidence, the influence of the industrial chain and upstream and downstream industries, the longer, the greater the risk.

For example, although theoretically, after the Sino -US outbreak of trade, China's exports to the United States can be shifted to other countries and regions.However, through research, the proportion of China's major export products in the imports of several other export countries is quite high, and the space for export ratio and market share is extremely limited.It's very difficult.

In particular, the impact of the Sino -US trade war on the industrial chain cannot be underestimated. This impact is difficult to accurately calculate the mathematical model.For example, because of concerns about the prospects of the Sino -US trade war, more and more multinational companies have hesitated to invest in Chinese investment and gradually adjust their global layout.According to reports, in order to avoid high import tariffs in the United States, some large Japanese manufacturers have re -examined their business in China and plans to transfer production lines out of China.Apple expressed concerns about imposing tariffs, but Trump said on TwitterApple can easily solve as long as the relevant factories are moved back to the United States.

Furthermore, it can be expected that Sino -US economic and trade relations are always the cockpit stones of Sino -US relations. Once the economic and trade relations are unstable, the contradictions in geopolitics and ideology will be easier to turn sharply.Therefore, it is worth trying to cherish the rare time window of the G20 Sino -US leader dialogue at the end of November to delay the stage of the trade war.

It can be seen that more and more policy signals are currently creating room for negotiations for high -level dialogue between China and the United States in November.For example, China has restored the import of American soybeans, corn and oil; after the people's daily article, it was mentioned in the rainbow that China has disdain the direct revenge of returning to the teeth, and the attitude tends to ease; in addition, there are reports that Kunlun Bank said Kunlun BankOr stop receiving the RMB payable to China from Iran on November 1 and so on.

In addition, China's further open measures are landing, including measures such as increasing imports, reducing car tariffs, open service industries and financial industries, and strengthening intellectual property protection that President Xi mentioned in Boao.Recently, when the central bank governor of China, Yi Gang, said at the G30 International Bank conference, mentioned that in order to solve the structural problems existing in the Chinese economy, it will accelerate domestic reforms and open up to the outside world, strengthen intellectual property protection, and consider the competition in competition.The principle of sexuality treats state -owned enterprises.

In summary, treating the trade war, the author believes that in the background of the unknown Trump's bottom line, you need to make a good plan.On the one hand, prepare for the worst case, do their own things, and boost confidence in all walks of life in the development of China's economic development.Accelerate the deployment of market -oriented reforms in the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee, the implementation of reform measures should be early or late, and it should be fast or slow; speed up the pace of opening up and actively participate in multilateral negotiations, such as speeding up the China -Europe Free Trade Zone attempts to strengthen ASEAN to strengthen ASEANThe regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP) between the 16 countries and the promotion of the China -Japan -Korea FTA negotiations, and even the active participation in the CPTPP is actively trying to hedge external risks.

On the other hand, the meeting between China and the United States in November is a rare time window for the cooling of the trade war. It is still critical to avoid the trap between China and the United States into the trap of Xunxida and converting into a comprehensive confrontation.It is believed that since the trade war, the risks in the US economy and politics have become increasingly apparent, and Trump's pressure on the China trade war will not be small.

China's industrial chain is complete and the market is huge. It is also a huge market for American companies to give up in China. For example, after accelerating the opening of China in China, Tesla and Chever have stated that they have factories in China and are expected to negotiate at the end of the year.But it is also expected to give more pragmatic negotiation conditions.

Therefore, it is worth trying to actively grasp the November G20 China -US negotiations and promote China and the United States to reach a settlement on trade issues.

Note: This article only represents the author's views