Author: Wang Xinsheng
At the important node of the 40th anniversary of the conclusion of the China -Japan Peace and Friendship Treaty, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe officially visited China for 3 days.This is the first time that the Japanese Prime Minister was officially visited in China after a lapse of 7 years, and it was also the first visit to China after the island purchase incident in 2012.Overall, the results of access are basically in line with external expectations, and the relationship between the two countries has returned to normal tracks to be confirmed. The two parties jointly stated that they would maintain free trade and signed a number of cooperation agreements with a total amount of more than $ 18 billion.It can be seen that the two countries are working hard in the direction of improvement in relations, but international relations are not so simple. There are still many variables between China and Japan in the future, and they must not be blind and optimistic.
Looking back on the content of the talks between the leaders of the two countries in the past six months, it will be found that the statement of the Chinese side's positioning of the relationship between the two countries has been changing in a good direction in this six months.
In May of this year, when the State Council Prime Minister Li Keqiang said when he visited Japan, it was the purpose of this visit.On September 12, the leader of the President of the State said when he met Abe in Russia that Sino -Japanese relations are entering the normal track and facing important opportunities to improve development.This time, the Chinese leaders clearly pointed out that with the joint efforts of both sides, the current Sino -Japanese relations return to normal tracks and reproduce their positive momentum.
In Japan, in May, after talks with Lee Keqiang in Tokyo, Abe uses competition to coordination to describe Japan -China relations.This time, the visiting Abe once again confirmed that the Japanese and the middle of the day should be the partner and the threat of each other, and they must also contribute to maintaining free trade.Abe's tweet said that the above three items will become the three principles of Sino -Japanese cooperation in the future.
Improving the relationship within a limited range of China and Japan
The author believes that the improvement of the relationship between China and Japan is inevitable.Under the new situation, China and Japan have deepened each other in bilateral fields. Today, today, which has risen against globalization and trade protectionism, the two countries also have more common interests and common concerns at the multilateral level.However, we must also be soberly realized that this is only an improvement within a limited range, not endless.
For a period of time, China and Japan have been competing.At the earliest, East Asian countries (regions) were the economic development forms of the Goose Style model. Taking Japan as the head geese, the four Asian four dragons and four small tigers were ranked two or three. Mainland China belonged to the fourth level.Later, with the development of China, China's economic strength has steadily improved, and finally surpassed Japan in 2010 and became the world's second largest economy.Today, China's total economic volume is two or three times that of Japan.
Of course, we cannot see the comparison of economic forces between the two countries, and the economic interdependence of the two countries should also be seen.China is Japan's largest trading country, and Japan is China's second largest trading country. Sino -Japanese trade accounts for 7.4%of China's total foreign trade last year.In addition, the related negotiations of the China -Japan -Korea Free Trade Zone have been ongoing.The population and economy of China and Japan account for more than 70%of the region.If China and Japan do not cooperate, the economic integration of East Asia will not be able to talk about it.Therefore, Sino -Japanese relations are gradually developing from competitive relationships to cooperation and coordination.
The pace of improvement of relations between the two countries will not be too great
Although relations between the two countries are moving forward to improve, in my opinion, the pace of improvement will not be too great.
First of all, there are still many differences between China and Japan. These differences exist like timely bombs, making the relationship between the two countries slightly fragile.Due to the differences in the system of the two countries, Japan has always been worried about China, a neighbor in China.Not long ago, Japan conducted military exercises in the East China and South China Sea, respectively, which attracted the attention of China.When meeting with Abe, the Chinese leader emphasized that the Japanese party must pay attention to the promise of the Japanese party, and act in accordance with the four political documents between China and Japan and the consensus that both sides reached.
Secondly, the development of Sino -Japanese relations also needs to consider American factors.On the one hand, the isolationism that the United States now pursues is necessary to approach China and Japan; but on the other hand, although Abe itself wants to actively improve Sino -Japanese relations, the existence of the Japanese and American security association treaties have made Japan be subject to the United States internationally internationally.Therefore, it is impossible for Japan to go too far in the improvement of Sino -Japanese relations, which also determines the limitations of Abe's visit to China this time.
Control contradictions and conflicts within the controllable range
All in all, there are still contradictions and conflicts between China and Japan. Now we need to control contradictions and conflicts within the controlled range and work hard in the direction of improvement.In the future, Sino -Japanese relations are still full of variables, among which we don't want to see it.The author predicts that at least in the next 10 years, it is difficult for Sino -Japanese relations to reach a very satisfactory level. It is estimated that the relationship between the two countries will have repeatedly, so we cannot be blind and optimistic.
The author is a professor at the Department of History of Peking University and an expert in Japanese issues
